California in ten years (2022) (Nice: rent, homes, transfer)

[WesternPilgrim]

One plausible scenario:

In ten years California will be broke, perhaps bankrupt, and severely crumbling economically. As a result, the state will not be able to enforce the massive legal and regulatory burdens it imposes on its citizens. So we will face a situation common in the third world: an endless tangle of laws, many of them contradictory, but a culture of non-compliance due to chronic non-enforcement. Translation: increasing contempt and disregard for the law. Squatting on the state's vast unoccupied lands will be ubiquitous and there will be no will to evict. Substandard buildings will be erected, roads constructed, and neighborhoods developed without any regard for code, regs, taxes or fees. Businesses will operate without regard to legal permissions, restrictions, or standards. Etc.

At the same time, while the state's infrastructure is neglected and many of its laws abandoned, the state's social and ideological agenda will be pushed to extremes. Homeschooling will be illegal and prosecuted. Religious schools will have a mandatory curriculum imposed on them. Large families will be harrassed. Acceptance of homosexuality will be demanded for employment. All remaining inconveniences with respect to abortion will be removed. The Catholic Church and other Christian organizations will be forced to close colleges, universities, hospitals, orphanages, adoption agencies, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, homeless shelters, soup kitchens, food pantries, and so forth, because they cannot in good conscience comply with the state's demands.

The end game: economic ruin and social tyranny, combined with a massive population transfer. Those harrassed by the state's social climate will leave, and those attracted by the de facto anarchy in other respects will flood into the state.

[alexxiz]

I say nah... CA will be a big bear pasture after the earthquake. Nice, fat bears with shiny coats will be feeding on lupines and gooseberries everywhere, stepping over occasional human skull here and there.

[Visit a Library]

Originally Posted by WesternPilgrim

One plausible scenario:

In ten years California will be broke, perhaps bankrupt, and severely crumbling economically. As a result, the state will not be able to enforce the massive legal and regulatory burdens it imposes on its citizens. So we will face a situation common in the third world: an endless tangle of laws, many of them contradictory, but a culture of non-compliance due to chronic non-enforcement. Translation: increasing contempt and disregard for the law. Squatting on the state's vast unoccupied lands will be ubiquitous and there will be no will to evict. Substandard buildings will be erected, roads constructed, and neighborhoods developed without any regard for code, regs, taxes or fees. Businesses will operate without regard to legal permissions, restrictions, or standards. Etc.

At the same time, while the state's infrastructure is neglected and many of its laws abandoned, the state's social and ideological agenda will be pushed to extremes. Homeschooling will be illegal and prosecuted. Religious schools will have a mandatory curriculum imposed on them. Large families will be harrassed. Acceptance of homosexuality will be demanded for employment. All remaining inconveniences with respect to abortion will be removed. The Catholic Church and other Christian organizations will be forced to close colleges, universities, hospitals, orphanages, adoption agencies, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, homeless shelters, soup kitchens, food pantries, and so forth, because they cannot in good conscience comply with the state's demands.

The end game: economic ruin and social tyranny, combined with a massive population transfer. Those harrassed by the state's social climate will leave, and those attracted by the de facto anarchy in other respects will flood into the state.

This is a good post and certainly very plausible; however, I'm confused by the part about harassing large families. Currently, the state encourages large families, which is why certain peoples of questionable legal status who have no reservations about accepting financial assistance can be seen with more than half a dozen kids in tow. And as their numbers continue to grow, I'd think their family size will become more the norm.

[BeauCharles]

Do you remember 2002? I do - and it wasn't tremendously different than it is today other than the housing bubble was just ramping up. I'd wager in ten more years things won't be much different than they are now. What you've outlined is utter paranoid fiction on a tin foil hat scale.

[Fargobound]

Next November should be interesting. I’m reading that a lot of these tax measures are going to be voted down.

[.highnlite]

MOD CUT

I figure, in ten years, I will still be riding the same horse, but will have some good Tennessee Mules, I should have a few grandchildren, I will keep horses here for them, and we will spend some time packing in the backcountry.

The state will still be here, people will still go to the beach, or go to the hills, and City-Data will still have the same guys who today complain about California, complaining about California and telling us they are going to leave any day now.

[Fargobound]

Maybe we can tax churches and can a few music programs

[DMenscha]

Don't forget the Terminator coming back.

[TimC2462]

Originally Posted by WesternPilgrim

One plausible scenario:

In ten years California will be broke, perhaps bankrupt, and severely crumbling economically. As a result, the state will not be able to enforce the massive legal and regulatory burdens it imposes on its citizens. So we will face a situation common in the third world: an endless tangle of laws, many of them contradictory, but a culture of non-compliance due to chronic non-enforcement. Translation: increasing contempt and disregard for the law. Squatting on the state's vast unoccupied lands will be ubiquitous and there will be no will to evict. Substandard buildings will be erected, roads constructed, and neighborhoods developed without any regard for code, regs, taxes or fees. Businesses will operate without regard to legal permissions, restrictions, or standards. Etc.

At the same time, while the state's infrastructure is neglected and many of its laws abandoned, the state's social and ideological agenda will be pushed to extremes. Homeschooling will be illegal and prosecuted. Religious schools will have a mandatory curriculum imposed on them. Large families will be harrassed. Acceptance of homosexuality will be demanded for employment. All remaining inconveniences with respect to abortion will be removed. The Catholic Church and other Christian organizations will be forced to close colleges, universities, hospitals, orphanages, adoption agencies, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, homeless shelters, soup kitchens, food pantries, and so forth, because they cannot in good conscience comply with the state's demands.

The end game: economic ruin and social tyranny, combined with a massive population transfer. Those harrassed by the state's social climate will leave, and those attracted by the de facto anarchy in other respects will flood into the state.

Ah, a worthless fear-mongering post.

[alexxiz]

Originally Posted by WesternPilgrim

One plausible scenario:

In ten years California will be broke, perhaps bankrupt, and severely crumbling economically. As a result, the state will not be able to enforce the massive legal and regulatory burdens it imposes on its citizens. So we will face a situation common in the third world: an endless tangle of laws, many of them contradictory, but a culture of non-compliance due to chronic non-enforcement. Translation: increasing contempt and disregard for the law. Squatting on the state's vast unoccupied lands will be ubiquitous and there will be no will to evict. Substandard buildings will be erected, roads constructed, and neighborhoods developed without any regard for code, regs, taxes or fees. Businesses will operate without regard to legal permissions, restrictions, or standards. Etc.

At the same time, while the state's infrastructure is neglected and many of its laws abandoned, the state's social and ideological agenda will be pushed to extremes. Homeschooling will be illegal and prosecuted. Religious schools will have a mandatory curriculum imposed on them. Large families will be harrassed. Acceptance of homosexuality will be demanded for employment. All remaining inconveniences with respect to abortion will be removed. The Catholic Church and other Christian organizations will be forced to close colleges, universities, hospitals, orphanages, adoption agencies, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, homeless shelters, soup kitchens, food pantries, and so forth, because they cannot in good conscience comply with the state's demands.

The end game: economic ruin and social tyranny, combined with a massive population transfer. Those harrassed by the state's social climate will leave, and those attracted by the de facto anarchy in other respects will flood into the state.

In 10 years, one's gonna need H1 visa to wash the toilets or rent a closet in Bay area. Even if they're from Ohio.