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Old 09-06-2012, 04:47 PM
 
9,891 posts, read 11,755,923 times
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But what about all the other states, that have a far lower unemployment rate than California, and are not suffering as California is. There are groups of states that equal the population of California, that as a group are not suffering the unemployment rate of California, and are not suffering.

California has the third highest unemployment rate of 11.2%. California has the second highest Underemployment rate in the nation at 20.3%. That number includes workers who have given up on the job search, search infrequently, or have part-time jobs that barely pay the bills. These people don't show up in the unemployment stats, but they're suffering all the same.

The combined unemployment rate and the underemployment rate is 31.,5% of the California population. With the high California cost of living, over 31% of the population is suffering either without a job, or if working are only working part time and not making enough to live on.

One thing to consider is: For the last 10 years, California population only averaged an increase of 1% per year, the lowest increase since the 1930s. The first time in 80 years, they did not add one or more congressman/woman.

In the last 10 years, more than 2 million whites have left California since 1990 according to 2010 census. But increased by 6 million Hispanics and 2 million Asians.

California would have actually lost population in the last two decades if it was not for the growth in Hispanic and Asian population.

The trend is higher income and rich leaving the state, being replaced by poor Hispanic population including a lot of illegals that were not even counted in the census. Tax payers leaving the state, being replaced by those that need more services, and contributing to the budget shortfalls.

White population total is now less than 39% of the California population, less than half the percentage of what it was 50 years ago. The White population has the money, and own and control the companies that are fleeing California.

One reason the state has a lot of financial problems, is the big shift in population has taken out a lot of the money and higher paid jobs. For this reason the income and sales tax receipts are declining in double digit percentages in a year, and getting worse not better. They then increase the taxes on the wealthy and upper middle class and they will bail out of the state as indicated by the decline in white population. This will again reduce the taxes the state is getting, leading to additional problems.
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Old 09-06-2012, 05:42 PM
 
18,172 posts, read 16,382,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
But what about all the other states, that have a far lower unemployment rate than California, and are not suffering as California is. There are groups of states that equal the population of California, that as a group are not suffering the unemployment rate of California, and are not suffering.

California has the third highest unemployment rate of 11.2%. California has the second highest Underemployment rate in the nation at 20.3%. That number includes workers who have given up on the job search, search infrequently, or have part-time jobs that barely pay the bills. These people don't show up in the unemployment stats, but they're suffering all the same.

The combined unemployment rate and the underemployment rate is 31.,5% of the California population. With the high California cost of living, over 31% of the population is suffering either without a job, or if working are only working part time and not making enough to live on.

One thing to consider is: For the last 10 years, California population only averaged an increase of 1% per year, the lowest increase since the 1930s. The first time in 80 years, they did not add one or more congressman/woman.

In the last 10 years, more than 2 million whites have left California since 1990 according to 2010 census. But increased by 6 million Hispanics and 2 million Asians.

California would have actually lost population in the last two decades if it was not for the growth in Hispanic and Asian population.

The trend is higher income and rich leaving the state, being replaced by poor Hispanic population including a lot of illegals that were not even counted in the census. Tax payers leaving the state, being replaced by those that need more services, and contributing to the budget shortfalls.

White population total is now less than 39% of the California population, less than half the percentage of what it was 50 years ago. The White population has the money, and own and control the companies that are fleeing California.

One reason the state has a lot of financial problems, is the big shift in population has taken out a lot of the money and higher paid jobs. For this reason the income and sales tax receipts are declining in double digit percentages in a year, and getting worse not better. They then increase the taxes on the wealthy and upper middle class and they will bail out of the state as indicated by the decline in white population. This will again reduce the taxes the state is getting, leading to additional problems.
They are now limiting the amount of work my company will do in California with extremely tight rules for what we make, far harsher than the Fed Rules. It is getting ridiculous. We are not expanding our CA facility and are acquiring another in TN. This will be the second in TN. Hiring is now capped in CA.

A point some make about Hi Tech firms and Banks etc having the "Headquarters" here. No big deal and not much of a help with increasing tax revenues, as they usually register as a Corp out of State. They only pay $800.00 per year in Corp tax. That is all I pay in CA as we registered the Corp out of State as well, since we started in another State.

It is getting goofy here and the residents pay the price, not the rich, who also make their State of Residence elsewhere and just keep a vacation home here. Again NO Taxes on their income at all.

Ahh well the Asians will become the new rich and not the Hispanics, and it will be interesting to see how that works out.
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Old 09-07-2012, 08:19 AM
 
5,975 posts, read 13,111,142 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coo77 View Post
OK, comparing California and Montana is rather silly. Montana has 2.6% of the population of California. 2.6%! Do you realize how small that is??? Montana was not nearly as connected to the recession as a state like California that had real estate investments, homeowners, employers, etc... much more connected to the global economy and the impact of a housing market collapse. It also doesn't have close to the amount of people to provide state services to, does not have immigration from abroad, does not have that many companies to even regulate if regulations were in place, and does not have to deal with a large population of numerous social classes from extraordinarily rich billionaires to urban poverty.

Montana's economy and California economy are so different and California's economy is so much bigger it is hard to even compare. California is the 8th largest economy in the WORLD. Its economy is bigger than Spain, Canada, India, Russia, Mexico, Netherlands, and most countries on earth.

California GDP: $1,911,822,000,000
Montana GDP: $35,267,000,000
Montana's economy is 1.8% the size of California's
Montana has no Fortune 500 companies. No Google that has changed search, No Walt Disney Co. that has changed entertainment, No Broadcom innovating semi-conductors, No Apple that has literally changed the way we experience hand-held devices, No Stanford or UCLA or Berkeley or USC that are world ranked universities leading research, No dominance in national agriculture, No Amgen leading life saving innovations in pharmaceuticals, No Jet Propulsion Laboratory that just sent a rover to Mars, AND SO MUCH MORE...

California has A TON of issues, but comparing to Montana is just ridiculous. You enjoy your low unemployment and economy based on Wal-Mart, Starbucks retail, brewing bear, logging, and government work. Those of us in California need to sort some stuff out while at the same time remaining at the forefront of changing the world so you and every other person on earth can enjoy the fashion, entertainment, technology, medical technology, space research, financial services, social networking, agriculture, etc... our state is a leader in.
Excellent post.

Of course explaining any of this to oldtrader is like talking to a tape player with no recording option.

I lived in a small intermountain west town for grad school. I was amazed at how smug some people were. "Ha ha, our states more beautiful and pristine than yours" And how some were NOT the rugged individuals one may expect. "I'll just get a job with the Bureau or Land Management (BLM). I got friends/connections." Yeah, some cowboy who doesn't need the government.
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Old 09-07-2012, 02:00 PM
 
9,891 posts, read 11,755,923 times
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#42 above, explains from a company point of view what I have been saying. Like so many companies, they are not a California Corporation, and have to pay a lot of corporate taxes. They limit the number of people employed in California, and put the part of the company with real jobs in another state. They show their profits, in other places than California to keep from paying California Taxes. There a lot of companies doing this every day, and are not counted as one of the companies leaving the state every week day.

Many only have moved the jobs out of California, and have a skeleton crew in California, show no profit in California and pay little or no taxes to the state of California.

Example: Company is incorporated in another state. Company advertises a San Francisco Address for prestige looking like they are a California Company with a high profile address, which is not much more than a mail drop as they are counting on no one will actually go to their office. Phones are answered where the company actually is located (but with San Francisco area code on the phones). Their customer service and help line with a California area code or 800 number, answered in India or the Phillipines. Goods made and shipped from Oklahoma or Texas or another state where costs to do business and taxes are low.

The government just said unemployment went down in August to only 8.1%, adding 91,000 jobs. In small print, you will find 368,000 people just gave up, dropped out of the labor force and quit looking for a job and are no longer counted as unemployed. A record of 88,921,000, people are not in the current labor force which is an all time record. And a lot of these people are in California.

California cheerleaders, just cannot accept the truth of what is really happening, and expect California to
be back doing business as usual, as they think California is too big to fail. They don't want to admit that California has already failed, and the steps being take to tax the rich and corporations, etc., and making it expensive and nearly prohibitive to do business in California is just driving them from the state or they are doing as #42 says his company is doing keeping from showing profits in California to tax, and sending the new jobs they are creating to other states and sometimes countries, paying the lower taxes in another place.
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Old 09-07-2012, 02:13 PM
 
9,891 posts, read 11,755,923 times
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Los Angeles times has an interesting article, backing up a lot of what I have been saying.

Most jobs in economic recovery are low-paying, study finds - Los Angeles Times

Most jobs that were lost, were middle income jobs (60%), and the new ones being created make up almost the same number being low paid and minimum wage type jobs. A study has shown that "The economy has fewer good jobs now than it did at the start of the 21st century,"

This phenomenon has hit California especially hard, and when they recently released that California lead the country in Job growth, it lead the country in lots more low paid jobs.
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Old 09-07-2012, 06:43 PM
 
450 posts, read 1,406,419 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
Los Angeles times has an interesting article, backing up a lot of what I have been saying.

Most jobs in economic recovery are low-paying, study finds - Los Angeles Times

Most jobs that were lost, were middle income jobs (60%), and the new ones being created make up almost the same number being low paid and minimum wage type jobs. A study has shown that "The economy has fewer good jobs now than it did at the start of the 21st century,"

This phenomenon has hit California especially hard, and when they recently released that California lead the country in Job growth, it lead the country in lots more low paid jobs.
This article is discussing the national trend of low wage jobs being most of the economic recovery. I don't see it singling out California, but rather talks about the entire country. Also, is California the leader in raw numbers of low wage jobs or the PERCENTAGE/RATE of low wage jobs making up the recovery??? Do you have a source for that? I would indeed be curious to see what percentage of each state's new jobs are low wage.

For example (Numbers aren't actual):
California adds 1000 jobs. 100 are low wage.
State B adds 300 jobs. 80 are low wage.

-- California in this scenario would be the "leader in job growth" and "leader in low wage jobs" because it added more than another state in raw numbers. But only 10% of its new jobs are low wage. State B added less low wage jobs because it added less jobs in general and 27% of its new jobs were low wage.
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Old 09-07-2012, 07:44 PM
 
Location: Nob Hill, San Francisco, CA
2,342 posts, read 3,987,349 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
Los Angeles times has an interesting article, backing up a lot of what I have been saying.

Most jobs in economic recovery are low-paying, study finds - Los Angeles Times
Stop it. Listen we all know our state has been hurting but you taking something good from job growth away from us is bordering on pathetic.

California cant ever do anything until its obsessors approve of it, am I right?
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Old 09-07-2012, 11:24 PM
 
5,975 posts, read 13,111,142 times
Reputation: 4907
Quote:
Originally Posted by coo77 View Post
This article is discussing the national trend of low wage jobs being most of the economic recovery. I don't see it singling out California, but rather talks about the entire country. Also, is California the leader in raw numbers of low wage jobs or the PERCENTAGE/RATE of low wage jobs making up the recovery??? Do you have a source for that? I would indeed be curious to see what percentage of each state's new jobs are low wage.

For example (Numbers aren't actual):
California adds 1000 jobs. 100 are low wage.
State B adds 300 jobs. 80 are low wage.

-- California in this scenario would be the "leader in job growth" and "leader in low wage jobs" because it added more than another state in raw numbers. But only 10% of its new jobs are low wage. State B added less low wage jobs because it added less jobs in general and 27% of its new jobs were low wage.
Its pointless arguing with Oldtrader. I think we should all just ignore him. I kindergarten student could read that article and come to the conclusion it was referring to the nation, not specifically to California.
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Old 09-08-2012, 01:51 AM
 
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Lets consider what gives me a little more understanding of what is going on than people that are untrained. Former College Business Instructor. All my life in business world. International Corporation up to Division Sales Manager for half the U.S. leaving only because I was tired of being transferred to solve the companies needs. Have had great university courses in economics, and business. Professional seminars in the field of business, and international money and tax saving. 30 Years commercial Real Estate Broker handling business properties, and counseling to solve business problems in numerous states from my office in Colorado, with clients I handled all their investments from as far away as Iran (when under the Shaw), Malasia, etc.
Lets look at the facts.

25% of job increase June 2011 to June 2012, agriculture jobs and not high paid jobs.
Manufacturing jobs which are the big important category down .4% not up in California and up for the nation by 1.9%. Places like Montana, good jobs are plentiful and importing workers. Services down .7%. Leisure and Hospitality covering things like motels, restaurants, etc. up 3.1%. Professional and Business Services up 3.1% which is providing services to businesses, such as accounting and Providing Temporary Workers for businesses (not full time jobs). While temporary services in the nation this has declined as part time jobs became full time instead of part time not the same in California. Construction up 5%, and this is unknown if low or high paid jobs. Professional and business services up 4.7% again in this field a lot of these jobs are part time. State jobs, down 1.4% and Federal Jobs down 1.8%. Normally good solid middle class jobs. Many of these are teachers, police, etc. This is just a few job categories, but gives you a good idea of what is really happening.

The loss in manufacturing jobs, is largely caused by the 5 companies bailing out every week taking their jobs with them and the replacement jobs are not equal to those leaving.

In July 2012, approximately 700,000 jobless Californians had gone without work for at least one year, which is more than 1/3rd of jobless.

Almost half of the unemployed in California have been searching for work for more than six months.

Add the underemployed including those that have just given up hope of getting a job and the jobless number is over 30% of the working age population.

The one group not increasing in employment past year, is those with a college degree where employment has remained flat with no gain, an indicator that most job increases are in lower quality jobs, not those requiring a college degree. There have been some increases in college trained employees, but they are being offset by those leaving the state when their companies move out.

Average weekly earnings are lower today than 5 years ago, except for the top 20% of population in California. This is not true, for most of the country where the economy is bouncing back.

California had a big jump in the number of jobs last month, but employment would have to more than double this figure every month for 3 or more years to get the state back to half way normal and that is not going to happen with current trends.

The U.S. unemployment rate dropped .1% last month with 96,000 jobs, but there were 368,000 that just gave up and are not counted as unemployed so it is not a true unemployment rate.

California has serious problems, and will take a long time to recover and may not be back to its glory days for decades. If California does what I am afraid they are going to do, which is to hit those with money and corporations with big tax increases and higher business fees to solve some of their money problems, be prepared to see more than the current company per day leave the state, and don't expect any company with high paying jobs to move in to replace them.
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Old 09-08-2012, 08:20 AM
 
444 posts, read 665,048 times
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oldtrader: You're trying to paint a picture for yourself of a post-apocalyptic, favela riddled California. For all we know you probably see California from a distance as becoming something like this:




Images not mine

Do you honestly think this will be the case? You seem to get off on this idea as you keep blabbering to yourself these baseless facts and figures that you can't back up. Aside from the LA Times article, which someone pointed out was about the whole nation not just California, you have NOT provided any links to provide any credibility to your propagandistic agenda. I'm most curious about your claim that 5 companies leave the state each week. Until you provide a link then we'll all assume you just pulled it out your ass.

Now to put it simply again: YES. California, the state I live in and cheerlead for, is having problems. Which significant part of the country isn't these days? But it is definitely not in the shape you claim it is or will be. You know how I know? I look at my surroundings.

I lived in Southern California my entire life. The worst I've ever seen this region by far was in the late 1990's. The aerospace industry, SoCal's economic powerhouse, got hammered by the defense cuts of the post-Cold War era. As a result, housing-retail-tourism-everything collapsed. The most vivid memory I had of those times were the countless FOR SALE signs in almost every neighborhood and the abundance of FOR LEASE signs in the shopping centers. Slowly but surely the region pulled itself out of the recession and eventually things were humming along.

Today, in these so-called "tough times", I've never seen anything remotely like the 90's. Homes are being bought up right after foreclosure, construction is on the rebound, businesses are flourishing. I'm a restaurant owner myself looking to expand and space is practically hard to find. It's come down to when I find a space I feel like I have to jump on it the same way football players have to jump on a fumble. My restaurant BTW is having another record year in revenue and profit hence the need for expansion. I speak with other business owners on a regular basis and I've never had one tell me "things are horrible! We're goin down!" In fact quite the contrary. Optimism abounds here in San Diego and Los Angeles. What your pessimistic little mind doesn't seem to remember is that economies are just like stocks. It ebbs and flows up and down. this state isn't immune to it especially.

So from my standpoint as a resident and entrepreneur things are quite dandy here in California thank you very much. You can sputter all the uneducated, unproven claims from your little perch all you want but unless you live here or at least prove what you post, it's all crap propaganda that you believe or made up yourself.

Last edited by mongozx; 09-08-2012 at 08:39 AM..
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