60M in CA by 2050; NorCal to be just 2M shy of SoCal? (San Francisco: homes, employment)

[18Montclair]

Perspective: This means that CA will have the same population as the Northeast Today.

This report claims that CA will have 60 Million people and SoCal will have 31 Million people by 2050, adding 12 Million people which comes out to a 60% increase, but upon looking at stats, if these predictions hold true, then NorCal will actually add 14 Million and actually increase by 100%.

Which means that the 100-mile radius around San Francisco will have around 20-25 Million people-

2050
Southern California Population: 31 Million
Northern California Population: 29 Million

[NYSD1995]

Times change. Roll with it or move to Arizona.

[18Montclair]

My primary issue is that the greatest catalyst for inland development in Northern California is the refusal of Bay Area cities and towns to allow the development of the millions of housing units that will be needed to accomodate this flood of new people.

Our super strict zoning laws in The Bay Area are really self defeating.

Currently,
The Bay Area has only developed 16% of its total land area...84% remains totally undeveloped which comes out to about 4 Million prime acres sitting there unused-all due to NIMBYS who want to have it all by having their piece of paradise without thinking about the people who'll be moving there in the future. Meanwhile, all the developers are plowing away at the Delta(of all places) and fertile farmlands in the Central Valley which creates horrible traffic and pollution in the valleys-not to mention a huge housing shortage here that has pushed our median home price to within striking distance of a million dollars(for heavenssake)

[kettlepot]

Your points are very true, but eventually the jobs will migrate to the Central Valley in search of lower wages in comparison to the high costs of Bay Area living. And who know's maybe they'll build a high speed train into the Bay Area.

Anyway, it's pretty clear that that bulk of California's population growth over the next generation will be in cities like Sacramento, Stockton, and Modesto. Fresno, Bakersfield, and Visalia will grow too, but maybe their distances from the LA and SF metro areas will retard their growth in relation to what will probably become a Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto metroplex of 3 to 4 million people.

Also, the original description of Nor Cal with 29 million people was no doubt including the entire state north of the Grapevine. So probably 5 million of those people will be outside of the SF/Sacto urban megalopolis.

And finally, I don't think the state will hit 60 million. it will probably peak out in the low 50's.

[EscapeCalifornia]

Its already too crowded. Good thing I'll be out long before California hits those numbers.

[KerrTown]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Our super strict zoning laws in The Bay Area are really self defeating.

Wanna be like Houston? We're even cheaper than San Antonio.

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by kettlepot

Your points are very true, but eventually the jobs will migrate to the Central Valley in search of lower wages in comparison to the high costs of Bay Area living. And who know's maybe they'll build a high speed train into the Bay Area.

Anyway, it's pretty clear that that bulk of California's population growth over the next generation will be in cities like Sacramento, Stockton, and Modesto. Fresno, Bakersfield, and Visalia will grow too, but maybe their distances from the LA and SF metro areas will retard their growth in relation to what will probably become a Sacramento/Stockton/Modesto metroplex of 3 to 4 million people.

Also, the original description of Nor Cal with 29 million people was no doubt including the entire state north of the Grapevine. So probably 5 million of those people will be outside of the SF/Sacto urban megalopolis.

And finally, I don't think the state will hit 60 million. it will probably peak out in the low 50's.

Interesting about the jobs situation.

A while back, the Contra Costa Times did a piece on future employment growth in Northern California and their experts predicted that the Alameda/ San Joaquin County corridor along 205 and 580 would be the largest job creation corridor in the coming decades supplying thousands of jobs for people in both the valley and east bay.

This also calls into question that thought that one day, The Bay Area and surrounding areas might eventually merge into a megasized metro area-surpassing all others except NY and LA. Its highly conceivable but who knows.

Its going to be interesting to see this all unfold.

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by KerrTown

Wanna be like Houston? We're even cheaper than San Antonio.

neighborhoods and all of a sudden, a random supertall skyscraper? maybe not so much

but we could use some affordable homes.

[sonarrat]

I thought people were leaving the Bay Area. Are they fleeing to the central valleys?

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by sonarrat

I thought people were leaving the Bay Area. Are they fleeing to the central valleys?

According to the CA Dept of Finance, 90% of people leaving the 11-county SF Metro Area move exclusively to Metro Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Merced, Salinas-Monterey.