Do you really think "the Big One" is coming? (Long Beach: 2014, tornadoes)

[saibot]

Earthquakes can't be predicted. Scientists talk about the probability of earthquakes. The last I heard, they place the probability of a very large (8.0+) quake hitting somewhere in California (which is a very large state) over the next 30 years at about 7%.

That means about a 93% chance that such a earthquake will not occur within 30 years, according to these scientists. But that's all talk, as there is no way to predict a seismic event. A 8.0 in my particular area might occur today, or it might not happen for 200 years.

Almost certainly, smaller quakes will happen during the next few decades. And a 6.0 or 7.0 is not all that small, if you're close to the epicenter. (I was near the epicenter of the 5.9 Whittier Narrows quake, and it felt violent enough). But that type of quake is not "The Big One."

[Unsettomati]

Originally Posted by starfighter

Or is it just another exaggerated prediction of a catastrophe? What do you think? Are you preparing? Tell me all about it!

What's there to think about?

It's a fact - not an opinion or a conjecture but a fact - that large (say, 8.0+) earthquakes have hit California in the past. As an aside, it's also a demonstrated fact that smaller but still substantial earthquakes (say, 7.0+) hit California, doing damage that is not catastrophic but still kills numbers in the double-digits and incurs costs into the tens of billions.

It's a fact that we know what causes these earthquakes: plate movement along faults.

It's a fact that these processes are ongoing and will periodically produce substantial (7.0+) and catastrophic (8.0+) earthquakes.

Seriously, where's even the smallest shred of logic in not thinking there will be such earthquakes in the future in California?

In the short-term, the 'when' is entirely unknown. Over the long-term (ie, measured in centuries), that they will occur is statistically certain.

This is not complicated.

[saibot]

Originally Posted by genjy

Non-Californians seem waayy too obsessed about CA and earthquakes for sure.

To be fair, it's not a phenomenon that is limited to non-Californians and earthquakes. When my sister moved from Long Beach to Oklahoma, she discovered that she was far more fixated on tornadoes than the natives were.

[Bluefox]

I lived in SD during the 6.9 magnitude "Easter Earthquake" of 2010 centered near Calexico. I can tell you that was one of the scariest things I'd ever experienced. It was surreal and it lasted about a minute, which, when it is happening, is a very very long time. But the damage, even near the epicenter, was comparatively minimal, especially when you look at places like Haiti which was devastated by an earthquake with a similar magnitude. I believe there was just one death from the Easter Earthquake, and that was because someone near the epicenter panicked and ran out of his house and into the street where he was struck by a vehicle.

Anyway - the greater risk to the average Californian from a large 7-8 magnitude centered in a major population area will be the possibility of no electricity / infrastructure / water / cell phone service for a period of maybe 24-96 hours afterward depending on the level of destruction. That's why it's good to have a plan and have your ducks in a row. Like a designated meeting spot for your family. And have an emergency backpack with food/water/water treatment/first aid/other essentials/etc. to cover at least 3-4 days if you have to "live off the grid".

Of course a lot of people ignore this advice. But I always kept one when I lived in CA. I kept it in my car. It's like insurance, except you only have to pay for it once.

[sourdough]

So, we are talking earthquakes. Check out Megaquake, Cascadia Subduction Zone….
The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest - The New Yorker

[Bluefox]

Originally Posted by sourdough

So, we are talking earthquakes. Check out Megaquake, Cascadia Subduction Zone….
The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest - The New Yorker

Yeah that IMO is the far bigger threat to the West Coast. In the hierarchy of natural disasters tsunami is king. The areas within the inundation zones will be completely erased and not a question of if but when.

[LoriBee62]

Yes. Will it devastate the region? No.

[blauskies]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

When will the next alligator bite your leg off!?! Think about it. Better yet, create a thread about. How about the next super hurricane? When will it wipe out FL? It could happen, right?

Only difference is 1) Alligators are harmless as long as you don't go for a backstroke in a lake, it's not like they are walking around at 2AM waiting to rob or car jack you. 2) Hurricane's give enough warning to GTFO, only problem is and I thought about this when living in Miami, even with 95 and the FL turnpike having the southbound lanes turned into Northbound which is what the state would do, the traffic and traffic jams would be an epic nightmare with the population volume.

I think a lot of people were taken by shock during the 2011 Virginia Quake, also cannot forget New Madrid in Missouri and if what happened then happened now.

[LoriBee62]

Originally Posted by Bluefox

But the damage, even near the epicenter, was comparatively minimal, especially when you look at places like Haiti which was devastated by an earthquake with a similar magnitude.

^^ This. People outside the state assume because earthquakes devastate third world countries, California will be equally doomed when the "big one" hits. I guess they don't know anything about construction and building standards. Even the big earthquake in Japan did minimal damage. It was the tsunami that did all the damage.

The people who really need to worry about earthquakes are the ones outside the state who don't have the building standards we do. Though rare, earthquakes can happen anywhere. Tragedy doesn't come from the earthquake, it comes from being unprepared.

[rodentraiser]

Originally Posted by sourdough

So, we are talking earthquakes. Check out Megaquake, Cascadia Subduction Zone….
The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest - The New Yorker

I'm more worried about Ranier going off, but I suppose one will follow the other.

Anyway, you all don't have to worry about California. Big quakes follow me around, and I don't live in California anymore. So the next big one will probably be here.