El Nino Done? (Crescent City, Ferndale, Redway: how much, stats, moving)

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

The rain and snow in northern CA was simply a part of the normal winter storm cycle, and really has little or nothing to do with El Niño. It wasn't excessively wet at all ... although in January it might have seemed a little bit that way in comparison to string of excessively dry winters during the past few years.

The bulk of moisture in the Pacific NW is all the more proof that NOAA was way off base in their long range outlooks. They were saying that California and the SW would be inundated with moisture this winter, and the Pacific NW would be drier than normal. They predicted pretty much the same thing for last winter also ... so they turned out to be dead wrong for two years in a row (which is not the first time this has happened)!

Water bills going up.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

The rain and snow in northern CA was simply a part of the normal winter storm cycle, and really has little or nothing to do with El Niño. It wasn't excessively wet at all ... although in January it might have seemed a little bit that way in comparison to string of excessively dry winters during the past few years.

The bulk of moisture in the Pacific NW is all the more proof that NOAA was way off base in their long range outlooks. They were saying that California and the SW would be inundated with moisture this winter, and the Pacific NW would be drier than normal. They predicted pretty much the same thing for last winter also ... so they turned out to be dead wrong for two years in a row (which is not the first time this has happened)!

I see where you're coming from. That makes sense if you take the "traditional" winter weather in CA as the norm, the rainy winters the area hasn't seen for a few years. I, and by recent reports, the weather people in the Sierras at least, are taking the latest dry winters as the new normal, and interpreting this rain and Sierra snow as a weak El Nino, with the bulk of the predicted heavy rains being deflected to the NW due to the high pressure zone over CA. From that perspective, NOAA wasn't completely wrong; their problem was they didn't anticipate the stubborn high over CA. And as recently as a couple of weeks ago, NOAA was out there in the clouds above the Pacific, measuring unprecedented amounts of moisture rising into the atmosphere. Where all that went, I don't know, unless it's responsible for continued rain in WA & OR.

There's no way to know which interpretation would be the most valid until we live through a few more winters to see if the old pattern returns, or if we're stuck with dry winters into the future. It would be great if things got back to normal, I think we can all agree on that. Stay tuned for further developments in the climate change saga, and hope for the best.

[DCMann2]

There's a reason why I live on the north coast

[MountainHi]

Originally Posted by DCMann2

There's a reason why I live on the north coast

How is it up there, btw? The weather maps say it's been drier than usual, but that might not mean much. From what we hear from our Crescent City poster, there's still been a decent level of moisture.

[TheDragonslayer]

I live just 12 miles north of Eureka, February has been both warm and dry compared to the drenching we got in December with 18.5 inches of rain and the 11 in January. Only 2 inches this month and we have slipped right past early spring, all the flowering plums bloomed and are leafing out, maples are putting out leaves too. Two weeks ago we had four days of record breaking heat, 80º,77º,75º and a 73, even today hit 70. We got loads of snow in the Trinity Alps and most of our large reservoirs are still going up, except for Folsom about Sacramento, it had gone up to 118% of normal and is now down to 116% in just a week. We have done quite well so far for rain on the coast, 42 inches to date, over 140% of normal for this time of year and even if we got little rain from now on, we would still end up near normal. The rest of the state below Sacramento needs rain to fill up their reservoirs, those are the ones that are hurting.

[MountainHi]

Originally Posted by TheDragonslayer

I live just 12 miles north of Eureka, February has been both warm and dry compared to the drenching we got in December with 18.5 inches of rain and the 11 in January. Only 2 inches this month and we have slipped right past early spring, all the flowering plums bloomed and are leafing out, maples are putting out leaves too. Two weeks ago we had four days of record breaking heat, 80º,77º,75º and a 73, even today hit 70. We got loads of snow in the Trinity Alps and most of our large reservoirs are still going up, except for Folsom about Sacramento, it had gone up to 118% of normal and is now down to 116% in just a week. We have done quite well so far for rain on the coast, 42 inches to date, over 140% of normal for this time of year and even if we got little rain from now on, we would still end up near normal. The rest of the state below Sacramento needs rain to fill up their reservoirs, those are the ones that are hurting.

Thanks for the report. Do you see the heavy Dec/Jan rain as el-nino related, followed by a return to drought? What's your take on it? That unseasonable heat is worrisome. There are definitely changes afoot.

[jalapenolink]

El Crapo.

We had 2 days with rain all month. We actually had more rain last year. Where are all the so called experts who predicted El Nino would bring record rain?????

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by jalapenolink

El Crapo.

We had 2 days with rain all month. We actually had more rain last year. Where are all the so called experts who predicted El Nino would bring record rain?????

To reiterate:

ENSO is not the be all and end all. [and furthermore, El Nino is never a guarantee of above normal precip for California]

There is also PDO (longer period / lower frequency). There is substantial evidence that PDO modulates ENSO. Overall, the smoothed PDO signal has been in negative territory for 10 - 17 years depending how you smooth and what is used as a baseline. PDO is tough to characterize since it's only been known since the 1990s.

There are attempts to derive proxy based records of these oscillations, YMMV.

The unknown unknown is what sorts of even longer period / lower frequency oscillations are there?

When we look at the paleo climate evidence of past megadroughts (as well as the shorter pluvials), it's pretty hard to explain them without the existence of some very low frequency oscillations being present.

[TheDragonslayer]

Originally Posted by MountainHi

Thanks for the report. Do you see the heavy Dec/Jan rain as el-nino related, followed by a return to drought? What's your take on it? That unseasonable heat is worrisome. There are definitely changes afoot.

This rain year is almost identical to El Nino of 97/98 up here, very wet December and January followed by a dry and warm February, then some more rains right up to early June, then a frost the first week of June followed by a miserable and cool, damp summer, even inland. That is if it follows a similar pattern as that winter, so far it has.

I lived in the southern part of the county about 3 miles in land from the coast from 92 to 2000. I lived mid way between Shelter Cove and Redway up in the hills in the 90's. It raind from 62 days straight, we got 49.5 inches of rain for December of 97, then 54.5 more inches in January of 98, February came in dry followed by March rains, April Showers and we May flowers, Damp June, July and August and frost in September. We had 141 inches of rain that year. Honey Dew and Petrolia got 224 inches of rain that year.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by TheDragonslayer

This rain year is almost identical to El Nino of 97/98 up here, very wet December and January followed by a dry and warm February, then some more rains right up to early June, then a frost the first week of June followed by a miserable and cool, damp summer, even inland. That is if it follows a similar pattern as that winter, so far it has.

I lived in the southern part of the county about 3 miles in land from the coast from 92 to 2000. I lived mid way between Shelter Cove and Redway up in the hills in the 90's. It raind from 62 days straight, we got 49.5 inches of rain for December of 97, then 54.5 more inches in January of 98, February came in dry followed by March rains, April Showers and we May flowers, Damp June, July and August and frost in September. We had 141 inches of rain that year. Honey Dew and Petrolia got 224 inches of rain that year.

Raining 2 months straight, that sounds like the "atmospheric river" phenomenon that often accompanies El Nino. It didn't happen this year, at least not farther south. I think the NW got it, which could include your corner of the Pacific NW.

Good to hear from you, Dragonslayer.