Will California ever go Red again? (San Francisco, Fortuna: employment, bankrupt, construction)

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by BeauCharles

Never. Its like asking if Wyoming or Oklahoma will ever go Democrat. Even more so since their demographics will continue to change in favor of the Democrats over time due to immigration. California is overwhelmingly Democrat now and the Republican's only sizable constituency - non-Hispanic whites - are going to drop from 40% to something like 25% by 2050. Its over - permanently. The 1990s were the California Republican's last gasp. Eventually the best they can hope for are local politics in rural NorCal and the Sierras.

Other than the sticks Non Hispanic whites here are mostly Dems. So too, Asians. Essentially, an huge percentage of upper middle class professionals, no matter what the background, are Dems. Immigration of the low skilled is increasingly irrelevant now that those streams have slowed to a trickle. The state is getting taken over by said professionals. This is especially true in the major population centers. We're becoming another Maryland but one that has several times the population.

[Nerdlord]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Other than the sticks Non Hispanic whites here are mostly Dems. So too, Asians. Essentially, an huge percentage of upper middle class professionals, no matter what the background, are Dems. Immigration of the low skilled is increasingly irrelevant now that those streams have slowed to a trickle. The state is getting taken over by said professionals. This is especially true in the major population centers. We're becoming another Maryland but one that has several times the population.

Does Maryland have bimodal wealth distribution?

I.e. the wealthy professionals and then the underclass that serves them?

[chessgeek]

Originally Posted by cb73

I saw an article a while back that one-third of all the welfare people in the entire country lived in California.

Democrats=free stuff
Republicans=jobs and the ability to succeed

No, we don't have a chance of going Republican.

Unemployment was higher at the end of the Bush administration in 2008 than it is today. Welfare payments also continued when Bush was President and also when Arnold Schwarzenegger was the governor of California. The Clinton administration in the 1990's also had the USA doing better economically (jobs) than it did when Bush Sr. was President. The same was true for California specifically. Just thought you should know.

As to the question of the thread, I doubt California will vote for the GOP in national elections in the future given the demographic data. The best Republicans can hope for is occasional success in certain Congressional districts and in some city mayor/city council elections. I am considering voting for Gary Johnson if he qualifies for the debates. A message needs to be sent to both parties IMO.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by Nema98

I don't hinks so, except of the Republican candidate is from California, then we may vote for him/her since it's their home state.

I agree, only if the republican nominee was a major CA politician from Southern CA could CA go red again. And even then it would have to be a pretty moderate Republican like Schwarzenegger at the very least. Although I'm not sure he could even get the support today he had when he was elected. I guess if Northern CA produced a popular moderate republican candidate that might work too but I don't see that happening, the majority of people in NorCal are anti-republican no matter what is seems. With our long history with republican governors I don't think its outside of the realm of possibilities honestly.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by chessgeek

Unemployment was higher at the end of the Bush administration in 2008 than it is today. Welfare payments also continued when Bush was President and also when Arnold Schwarzenegger was the governor of California. The Clinton administration in the 1990's also had the USA doing better economically (jobs) than it did when Bush Sr. was President. The same was true for California specifically. Just thought you should know.

As to the question of the thread, I doubt California will vote for the GOP in national elections in the future given the demographic data. The best Republicans can hope for is occasional success in certain Congressional districts and in some city mayor/city council elections. I am considering voting for Gary Johnson if he qualifies for the debates. A message needs to be sent to both parties IMO.

so you can honest say you doubt Ca will ever vote for a Republican for in a national election? We all agree, it is unlikely in the next decade.
Is unemployment lower now than in 2008? Yes, it is lower all over the country, but check to see what it was in say Oct of 2008 compared to maybe Jan. 2010? How many employed even today are under employed? You mention welfare, are you saying the welfare numbers are lower now than in 2008? If you are I think you need to check your sources?

As for Johnson, he, I am sure would be the perfect solution for many people. He was a good governor in NM and very popular. I think his views might be a little to far out for the majority but I certainly can understand his support. I hope he does qualify for the debates but I don't think it will happen.

[Vacanegro]

Originally Posted by nmnita

so you can honest say you doubt Ca will ever vote for a Republican for in a national election? We all agree, it is unlikely in the next decade.
Is unemployment lower now than in 2008? Yes, it is lower all over the country, but check to see what it was in say Oct of 2008 compared to maybe Jan. 2010? How many employed even today are under employed? You mention welfare, are you saying the welfare numbers are lower now than in 2008? If you are I think you need to check your sources?

As for Johnson, he, I am sure would be the perfect solution for many people. He was a good governor in NM and very popular. I think his views might be a little to far out for the majority but I certainly can understand his support. I hope he does qualify for the debates but I don't think it will happen.

California can and would vote for a Republican but they must be a centrist and they must not be socially conservative.

Hell they voted for Schwarzenegger twice so just because Jerry Brown is doing a good job right now does not mean that the voters won't swing right sometime in the future.

[tickyul]

NO, CA will never go red again.

In fact, most state are not in-play during most presidential elections.....statistically there is little if any doubt about which way the state will go. If you vote RED in a presidential-election and you live in CA, your vote is meaningless.......and that is the way it is in MOST states.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Vacanegro

California can and would vote for a Republican but they must be a centrist and they must not be socially conservative.

Hell they voted for Schwarzenegger twice so just because Jerry Brown is doing a good job right now does not mean that the voters won't swing right sometime in the future.

yep

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by tickyul

NO, CA will never go red again.

In fact, most state are not in-play during most presidential elections.....statistically there is little if any doubt about which way the state will go. If you vote RED in a presidential-election and you live in CA, your vote is meaningless.......and that is the way it is in MOST states.

Gee, thanks for your factual posting. I am sure many of us would love to know where you keep your crystal ball. I guess those who vote for anyone with an R next to their name should just not bother to ever vote again cause you have just told us; never can a Republican become President

[majoun]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Other than the sticks Non Hispanic whites here are mostly Dems. So too, Asians. Essentially, an huge percentage of upper middle class professionals, no matter what the background, are Dems. Immigration of the low skilled is increasingly irrelevant now that those streams have slowed to a trickle. The state is getting taken over by said professionals. This is especially true in the major population centers. We're becoming another Maryland but one that has several times the population.

Maryland, although a solid blue state, has a Republican governor.

Could California have its own Larry Hogan?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...8bb_story.html