Long Range Forecast: No Relief for CA Drought (assess, gardens)

[Wells5]

Are Californians taking the situation seriously enough? See link.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...al_drought.pdf

[sourdough]

what can we do but set it out until it becomes uncomfortable......

[Tulemutt]

You can totally freak, man! And run around like your hair is on fire (with no water to put it out!)

[sourdough]

no worries mate.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by sourdough

no worries mate.

Yeah. I'm past having fuel for hair on fire as well

[volosong]

Originally Posted by Wells5

Are Californians taking the situation seriously enough? See link.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...al_drought.pdf

Linked forecast is for Aug 18 through Nov 30. That's still in the 'dry season' and it rarely rains during that time. Only real exception in during the North American monsoon that comes up from the Sea of Cortez and into Arizona. Even then, we just get the fringe of the monsoon.

No worries. Ask again next May after the traditional rainy season.


.

[Ruth4Truth]

Surprisingly, I know people who started to water their lawns and gardens this past spring and summer, already. As if everything is back to normal. I was in disbelief. I think some people may not be very bright; they don't think the issue through. One quasi-El Nino year isn't going to change the long-term trend, nor would it replenish depleted aquifers.

[Mr5150]

Originally Posted by volosong

Linked forecast is for Aug 18 through Nov 30. That's still in the 'dry season' and it rarely rains during that time. Only real exception in during the North American monsoon that comes up from the Sea of Cortez and into Arizona. Even then, we just get the fringe of the monsoon.

No worries. Ask again next May after the traditional rainy season.


.

So true ^^^.

In my part of CA the drought was over last May with 110% of normal precipitation. All of the local reservoirs are over 100%. (Not so much for State system reservoirs, but they are much fuller that they were this time last year.)

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Mr5150

So true ^^^.

In my part of CA the drought was over last May with 110% of normal precipitation. All of the local reservoirs are over 100%. (Not so much for State system reservoirs, but they are much fuller that they were this time last year.)

As an example SD County is OK, but it isn't just reservoirs, it is the amount from the snow pack and ground water. Both are still well below what is needed.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Here's my forecast and logic.

Clearly, ENSO is now La Nina. That is generally not helpful. However, La Nina can have the following quirk. Because during La Nina, the Pac NW generally gets deluged, sometimes, La Nina brings normal to slightly above normal to NorCal. There are indicators (e.g. early cold fronts, persistent troughs) that this may occur this water year.

Downside risks, above and beyond La Nina, exist. The smoothed long term PDO signal is actually negative. PDO is a strange thing. It can seem to rebound positive for a short period. I consider that noise. Filter the noise - it's still negative. That is not helpful.

Overall - So Cal and Central Cal to be in continued drought. 40 - 50% chance NorCal has normal.