Which California cities are in a Housing Market Bubble? (Los Angeles: short sales, 2013)

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by adr3naline

See this report for a detailed analysis of over/undervalued regions. Page 7 will be of particular interest.
http://www.corelogic.com/research/hp...een-042817.pdf

Interesting statistics and forecast. Even the distressed areas are predicted to rise.

I think its also very important to remember that even the experts are not always great at guessing when the next correction will occur. Though some earlier indicators can be present like overvaluation. Many times additional factors contribute to the tides turning such as rising interest rates. The Dot Com crash is a great example of a significant external event not necessarily seen coming.

Does anyone think entering a war with Korea or Syria could impact the US economy? There is always a bit of overconfidence that these engagements will end quickly. Look at Iraq both in terms of both dollars and lives.

Derek

[tehsquishmeister]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Does anyone think entering a war with Korea or Syria could impact the US economy?

Derek

Isn't that the only reason we go to war with them in the 1st place? It creates wealth for the military-industrial complex and adjacent industries.

There's no moral or even an alternative influence; not even in the slightest.

[joejerryronnie]

And just think, a war with China & Russia would really give our GDP a nice pop.

[SportyandMisty]

One of the things about bubbles is they can't be identified while you are in them. You cannot identify that a "burst" will take place until afterwards -- there is no set of predictive criteria.

They can only be identified after the fact through 20-20 hindsight.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

One of the things about bubbles is they can't be identified while you are in them. You cannot identify that a "burst" will take place until afterwards -- there is no set of predictive criteria.

They can only be identified after the fact through 20-20 hindsight.

Yes, I think you are correct 'generally' speaking. If you would have asked the majority of people during the boom (2006/7) if they thought the market was ever going to change, they would probably have said no. It going to keep climbing. That's exactly that same kind of thinking that led buyers, banks and many other investors to overextend themselves. Why? Because there was no end in sight with big money to made.

However, it would be interesting see at what stage directly before the Great Recession certain economists actually saw the writing on the wall. I think if you look, you'll find those who were actually warning us of the coming crash. For example, William White, one of the world's top economists, predicted the crash - predicted the 2008 crash. In addition there were a number of other economists say in the same thing - 6 economists who predicted the global financial crisis. The problem is when things are going gangbusters no one really wants to hear that it might change.

By contrast, immediately following a crash the overall group think is the same. Very few see the opportunity for upward growth. Everything is gloom and doom. Yet that turns out to be one of the best times to buy.

Derek

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Yes, I think you are correct 'generally' speaking. If you would have asked the majority of people during the boom (2006/7) if they thought the market was ever going to change, they would probably have said no. It going to keep climbing. That's exactly that same kind of thinking that led buyers, banks and many other investors to overextend themselves. Why? Because there was no end in sight with big money to made.

However, it would be interesting see at what stage directly before the Great Recession certain economists actually saw the writing on the wall. I think if you look, you'll find those who were actually warning us of the coming crash. For example, William White, one of the world's top economists, predicted the crash - predicted the 2008 crash. In addition there were a number of other economists say in the same thing - 6 economists who predicted the global financial crisis. The problem is when things are going gangbusters no one really wants to hear that it might change.

By contrast, immediately following a crash the overall group think is the same. Very few see the opportunity for upward growth. Everything is gloom and doom. Yet that turns out to be one of the best times to buy.

Derek

While there are those predicting a pop, and they may have done so the last time. There are as many saying no pop and they did so the last time. So finding that some predicted a pop is no real evidence they can predict anything, it just helps them sell their books and classes.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by expatCA

While there are those predicting a pop, and they may have done so the last time. There are as many saying no pop and they did so the last time. So finding that some predicted a pop is no real evidence they can predict anything, it just helps them sell their books and classes.

I think you're statement is too broad. The same could be said for Wall Street and financial investing. Its like saying why try? What's the point in having fund managers when no one is any good at judging the markets anyway? But if that were really the case then all mutual funds would perform the same as would all real estate investors. Or at the very best some would do better occasionally due to dumb luck. I think reality is actually somewhere between those two extremes. There are some sharp economists, businessmen, stock and real estate investors who are actually good at what they do. They are pretty good at knowing when to buy, hold and sell. While at the same time many more do not really have a clue. And to your point, some just get plain lucky. Every dog has his day and then sells some books. But I don't think its 100% random, dumb luck. Certain people due have more skills than the average Joe throwing darts at a dart board.

Derek

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

I think you're statement is too broad. The same could be said for Wall Street and financial investing. Its like saying why try? What's the point in having fund managers when no one is any good at judging the markets anyway? But if that were really the case then all mutual funds would perform the same as would all real estate investors. Or at the very best some would do better occasionally due to dumb luck. I think reality is actually somewhere between those two extremes. There are some sharp economists, businessmen, stock and real estate investors who are actually good at what they do. They are pretty good at knowing when to buy, hold and sell. While at the same time many more do not really have a clue. And to your point, some just get plain lucky. Every dog has his day and then sells some books. But I don't think its 100% random, dumb luck. Certain people due have more skills than the average Joe throwing darts at a dart board.

Derek

True some are good at what they do, but never 100% correct. For those who "predicted" the last bubble, how many prediction shave they made that were wrong?

I agree we should consider what experts say, but what is more important is why they say it, the evidence. No crystal balls please.

[jm1982]

Originally Posted by V8 Vega

Some friends of mine just sold their house in Granada Hills for $749,000 in days.

I am getting ready to sell my home in the valley too . Time feels right .

[jm1982]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Yep, I think some are cashing out while prices are still high/rising. Then they move to cheaper areas with more land, etc... BTW, that price seems generally high for Granada Hills. I wonder if it was a fancy house for the area or more of your standard tract house, size, etc...

Derek

I live in the valley too and my home is not too far from Granada Hills . I noticed right in the neighborhood where my home is some new listings have been popping up it seems more than before .. but it could be the time of year .. I know a lot of people wait until spring to list their homes .

$750k does sound high for Granada hills so I'm guessing it's a pretty large house . There are some very nice homes and streets there .