When is the Next CA Housing Price Collapse Supposed to Happen? (house, tax)

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Although at some point, they don't....or won't.

"...house hunters’ current reluctance to swiftly gobble up this year’s new listings suggests, at a minimum, a noteworthy hiccup. I’m betting pricing is an issue – both from what an owner may think a home is worth to the price-cutting impact of pricier mortgages to a potential buyer’s budget.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/0...-near-its-end/

The main point there is more listings which will slow the market. No Bubble but maybe the market has reached its limit in price increases for a while. That is normal.

[Searching-01]

Originally Posted by iExtrapolate

Look at Mr Grouchy over here.


OP just asked a legitimate question. Most people don't know everything and they come to internet forums to ask questions and learn. The understanding of the current housing market as a bubble is not completely crazy; it's just pattern recognition. You are correct if you say that this housing market is different than before, but you can explain that to OP without such antagonistic rude language.



One thing that cannot be denied about the California housing market is it's cyclical nature. The California housing market has gone through large upswings and downswings on a periodic cycle that the rest of US has not experienced. By rent/mortgage payment ratio, houses are not all that overvalued. However, if you believe that the historically cyclical housing market will never experience another downturn, I would say that you are engaging in magical wishful thinking as well.

Thanks for understanding where I was coming from.

Co-workers I have that grew up here tell me there is a cyclical market in housing, that as you point out, the rest of the nation mostly never sees.

That's all I was asking about, for the most part.

Also, met one person when I first moved out here and was in an apartment, that lived below me. He was a born here type. It was 2006-2007-ish, just prior to the bust.

He explained to me that he had just sold and was waiting for the dip to buy again.

Being originally from S. Fla. this is all new to me.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Searching-01

He explained to me that he had just sold and was waiting for the dip to buy again.

Here's the problem, and I don't mean to be sarcastic: no one has a crystal ball. So waiting for the dip, even if you were a long time realtor or real estate investor, is simply a gamble.

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Here's the problem, and I don't mean to be sarcastic: no one has a crystal ball. So waiting for the dip, even if you were a long time realtor or real estate investor, is simply a gamble.

So is any market activity. Everything is a gamble. Buying the dip (verses just buying in whenever) is at least a plan. You just have to be prepared for that dip to take 2-to-10+ years to materialize, and recognize it when it comes.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Here's the problem, and I don't mean to be sarcastic: no one has a crystal ball. So waiting for the dip, even if you were a long time realtor or real estate investor, is simply a gamble.

Plus most dips are minor. The last one was not normal and unlikely to occur again. Minor dips, yes.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by wac_432

So is any market activity. Everything is a gamble. Buying the dip (verses just buying in whenever) is at least a plan. You just have to be prepared for that dip to take 2-to-10+ years to materialize, and recognize it when it comes.

In addition to the RE market being very unpredictable, there are many 'so called' industry experts predicting a wide range of outcomes. So there can be a tendancy toward 'confirmation bias.' In other words, if you really think something is so, like the market will crash soon or its a fantastic time to buy you can very likely find some supporting sources to back your ideas.

The only two real things we have to learn from are prior market swings and current economic conditions. Even after the Great Recession no one really knew if the bottom had actually been reached or if CA was so overvalued that it would continue dropping... until it didn't and the naysayers finally stopped talking. In a perfect world if one had the time and money to watch and wait, once the market takes another significant drop and then begins to climb, that would be the ideal time to buy. Otherwise, you decide to get in at some point along that spectrum knowing you 'may' be buying toward to upper end of a trend... or not. So yes, there is always some degree of gambling going on.

Derek

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by wac_432

So is any market activity. Everything is a gamble. Buying the dip (verses just buying in whenever) is at least a plan. You just have to be prepared for that dip to take 2-to-10+ years to materialize, and recognize it when it comes.

Nah. Most people don't know "the dip" even when they're in it, and investors are often wrong.

[ikoolu]

as soon as the Chinese run out of money or the communist cut off the money outflows - the market will drop

i sold my 2600 sq ft house for $1m to a 26 year old Chinese girl -

[joejerryronnie]

Originally Posted by wac_432

So is any market activity. Everything is a gamble. Buying the dip (verses just buying in whenever) is at least a plan. You just have to be prepared for that dip to take 2-to-10+ years to materialize, and recognize it when it comes.

The problem with buying the dip is that you may wait 10 years for a 20% market correction - in the meantime, housing has gone up by 50%, so you're still losing money while waiting for the dip. Nobody knows where housing is going so my advice is to buy whatever you can reasonably afford now and start building equity. It's much easier to take advantage of a dip when you have assets and home buying experience to work with.

[bmw335xi]

When the economy crashes the house market will crash too... I personally don't think the economy is going to crash anytime soon. I think we still have two more good years, maybe more, but for now, I feel fairly confident we won't go into a recession in the next couple years. The tax cuts are really boosting corporations.