Good News: Since 1985 Serious Crime in California Has Fallen by 60% (Oxnard: to live in, cost)

[kettlepot]

Crime is up significantly in my neighborhood. Some categories have tripled, though part of that is due to working with a small denominator. Our anecdotal belief is that's caused by living in an urban area near where Prop 47 alumni are released. Fortunately, residents of elite communities are unaffected by this localized crime increase, so all is well.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by Elliott_CA

How about some good, positive news about California for a change?

Look at Appendix A on Page 3 of this report. The chart shows crime trends in the 15 largest California cities from 1985 to 2018. Serious crime is down a whopping 60%. And the report shows that despite California's early release programs needed to reduce jail population, the crime rate has still stayed down.

http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/doc...reform_era.pdf

Not at Dodger Stadium.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by aslowdodge

It's funny how some posters are so sensitive to what they refer to as "California Bashers". They say they live in a great state and are happy... unless someone posts something they don't like, then they get butt hurt. even if what was posted was completely true.

They can’t handle FACTS or other people’s opinions.

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by Elliott_CA

How about some good, positive news about California for a change?

Look at Appendix A on Page 3 of this report. The chart shows crime trends in the 15 largest California cities from 1985 to 2018. Serious crime is down a whopping 60%. And the report shows that despite California's early release programs needed to reduce jail population, the crime rate has still stayed down.

http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/doc...reform_era.pdf

+1

I already knew this. Im particularly impressed with the dramatic drop in crime in LA. Congrats.

[JGC97]

That's great! Considering the state has a population of 39 million as compared to the 27 million in '85, a decrease is always welcome. Funny, though. When you watch the nightly news, it doesn't feel like it. But hey, I'll take your word for it.

[Elliott_CA]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

That's great! Considering the state has a population of 39 million as compared to the 27 million in '85, a decrease is always welcome. Funny, though. When you watch the nightly news, it doesn't feel like it. But hey, I'll take your word for it.

What I read is that crime has fallen sharply because gang warfare and gang membership has subsided. Non-gang random crime continues as always -- that's what fills up the daily news.

[JGC97]

Originally Posted by Elliott_CA

What I read is that crime has fallen sharply because gang warfare and gang membership has subsided. Non-gang random crime continues as always -- that's what fills up the daily news.

Oh, I see. Looking at the chart again, I see that one of the graphs shows no increase or decrease based on Prop 47, which was somewhat contested in the state. Also noticed that crime increased for some cities but decreased for others. I guess that's what makes it difficult to judge. Depends on where you live.

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

Oh, I see. Looking at the chart again, I see that one of the graphs shows no increase or decrease based on Prop 47, which was somewhat contested in the state. Also noticed that crime increased for some cities but decreased for others. I guess that's what makes it difficult to judge. Depends on where you live.

The graph shows all crimes. Violent crime has increased about 10-20% since prop 47. Violent crime in my city of 100,000 people is up over 20% since 2014, with the increasing clearly starting in 2015 and a big jump in 2017.

Property crime has decreased (possibly because PD's aren't willing to pursue it anymore since penalties for thefts under $900 have been essentially eliminated). If you combine the two and graph it, it looks like a stable or decreasing crime rate.

I don't care much about property crime. It was always relatively high in my city. Violent crime WAS low. After prop 47, the two switched places. Property crime went down and violent crime skyrocketed.

[JGC97]

Originally Posted by wac_432

The graph shows all crimes. Violent crime has increased about 10-20% since prop 47. Violent crime in my city of 100,000 people is up over 20% since 2014, with the increasing clearly starting in 2015 and a big jump in 2017.

Property crime has decreased (possibly because PD's aren't willing to pursue it anymore since penalties for thefts under $900 have been essentially eliminated). If you combine the two and graph it, it looks like a stable or decreasing crime rate.

I don't care much about property crime. It was always relatively high in my city. Violent crime WAS low. After prop 47, the two switched places. Property crime went down and violent crime skyrocketed.

Interesting. I wonder if what you said about people not willing to report crimes has anything to do with it. I've been incredibly lucky. Haven't had any break-ins or thefts in my home but it's difficult to even tell if I'm home or not since my car is garaged so even if I'm gone, you can't really tell. My lights are on timers. If I'm going to be gone for any length of time, I arrange for my neighbor to pick up my mail or I'll put a stop in at the post office. I try to do my part in avoiding it but sometimes it just happens. As for my city overall, we've had more murders than in recent history but they are definitely gang and drug related. I guess the only way to really tell is when we see more crime in our own neighborhood. That's when we know it's increasing.

[wac_432]

I'm as far from a CA-basher as you can get, but I don't like prop 47. I think it's detrimental to our state.

I love my town, but I'm annoyed, because when I moved here in 2013, overall crime was below the national average, and violent crime was well below the national average. Starting in 2014, property crime decreased a little bit and violent crime skyrocketed more than 25%! So now my town is well above the national average in both total crime and violent crime.

At the same time, I live in a safe area. I have lights and cameras. My house looks shabby and like there's nothing of value inside (there isn't). I've actually gone for a walk downtown and absent-mindedly left the front door wide open for several hours, left the house unlocked for days, etc, and never been a victim of so much as having my car rifled.

So I feel safe at home and out and about, I just wish I had the stats to back up that feeling. I would also like to see the crime rate brought under control by the time my children grow up so they can safely go out on their own.