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Old 11-15-2019, 08:51 PM
 
Location: California → Tennessee → Ohio
1,608 posts, read 3,078,179 times
Reputation: 1249

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On at LEAST this one measure, LIFE in the State of California has vastly improved over the last 25 years: the sharp DROP in HOMICIDES.

These numbers are even MORE STRIKING when viewed in context with how the State's population has grown over that time.
1980: 23.5 million residents
1990: 29.7 million residents
2000: 33.8 million residents
2010: 37.3 million residents
2018: 39.5 million residents

The following numbers are TOTAL ANNUAL HOMICIDES in the STATE of CALIFORNIA:

YEAR HOMICIDES
1980 3411
1985 2770
1990 3553
1991 3859
1992 3921
1993 4096
1994 3703
1995 3531
2000 2079
2005 2503
2010 1809
2015 1861
2016 1930
2017 1830
2018 1739

Source: California Crime Rates 1960-2018

Last edited by caliguy92832; 11-15-2019 at 09:12 PM..
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Northern Wisconsin
10,379 posts, read 10,919,333 times
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That is good news. Its a nationwide trend. Lots of theories on why, none that are definitive, as far as I know. Could be declining birth rates, could be increase of people who conceal carry, but could be other things too.
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
4,627 posts, read 3,396,306 times
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^ Looks like the OP recycled/repackaged a thread from nearly 10 years ago?

//www.city-data.com/forum/los-a...s-getting.html

Nevertheless it is a very encouraging trend.....
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:45 PM
 
5,381 posts, read 8,690,013 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks View Post

Nevertheless it is a very encouraging trend.....
....one that Ohio, hopefully, also follows, as its 2017 homicide rate was 7.5, while California's was 5.1.

Murder Rate by State by Population 2019
Rate is number of homicides per 100,000 population
http://worldpopulationreview.com/sta...rate-by-state/
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:57 PM
 
1,156 posts, read 941,766 times
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The 3-strikes law was implemented in 1994 and California's prison population also increased by 500% between 1982 and 2000.
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Old 11-15-2019, 10:45 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
4,627 posts, read 3,396,306 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCal25 View Post
The 3-strikes law was implemented in 1994 and California's prison population also increased by 500% between 1982 and 2000.
Correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. There is a strong correlation between the sale of ice cream cones and drownings during the summer months. Should we ban ice cream sales?

The fact is national and international homicide rates have fallen since the early 90's. For example, Canada's homicide rates have also declined since the early 90's. Yet Canada's incarceration rate did not change significantly during this time.
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Old 11-16-2019, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
10,351 posts, read 8,572,211 times
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You would think with the media making such a big deal of killings to get clicks that it was actually increasing.
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Old 11-19-2019, 12:35 PM
 
2,284 posts, read 1,585,059 times
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You should also also track:

1.) the number of annual deaths
2.) the population
3.) counties and cites where the majority of homicides happened in the 80s and early 90s to where the majority is today.

Less gang warfare in certain parts can be a huge factor. With more micr-stats you may come to find out the same homicide rate exists in L.A.'s Westside or SF' Haight district then as it does now. Drill down for more stats if possible.

Not to be a danny downer but even violent crime stats have been deflated by police districts.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...me-in-the-u-s/
from the report above --->
===========================

"Most crimes are not reported to police, and most reported crimes are not solved. In its annual survey, Bureau of Justice Statistics asks victims of crime whether they reported that crime to police. In 2018, only 43% of violent crimes tracked by BJS were reported to police."

In May, PublicSource examined the failure of local police to solve scores of homicides, and because only two organizations — the Pittsburgh Bureau of Police and the Allegheny County Police Department — handle all local investigations, it was fairly simple to learn that Allegheny County tallied 588 murder cases from 2010 through 2015.
But check annual federal and state crime numbers, and you’ll find more than 80 cases missing in that period. Not every case investigated as a homicide is classified as a criminal homicide under official criteria, but it’s difficult to explain such a large deviation.
--- https://www.publicsource.org/why-is-...rly-reporting/
"About 30 police departments in Allegheny County failed to report at least one homicide in a six-year period."


The Wall Street Journal reported on some troubling errors found in last year’s "Crime in the United States”"related to the "crude estimates" FBI uses to compensate for missing data:
In its latest report, the FBI didn’t adjust the counts of violent crime for 11 states at all.

Homicide figures also had to be adjusted due to missing data, though that apparently didn’t happen for every state. Sometimes, the estimates used by FBI to fill in the gaps "stray substantially from reported numbers," according to the Journal:
==================

You really think this isn't happening anywhere in California? c'mon, don't debate me. debate the WSJ, BJS, and police districts.

Is it believable, idk? I don't believe it's as high as the Pres. said but if it's low he'll take credit like a dog chasing a tennis ball.
From everything I have read throughout history, when populations increase so do crimes.I's a natural occurrence throughout the world. Some homicides are becoming more horrific like in the movies. Some people are buried and just missing. These are just a few disturbing ones I dug up.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...esome-killings
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/13/u...n-victims.html
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article223965520.html
- Pelican Bay Cellie slayings

California has one of the nation’s highest inmate homicide rates. - theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/10/california-prison-inmate-murdered-disemboweled-riot

If anyone could break it down by police district, it would help find some discrepancies. We all know gangs still exist in Cali. so many murders do too. But sure I'd be happy to hear it's low and 100% true based on the same reporting measures they used in the 80s and 90s.

Last edited by frankrj; 11-19-2019 at 12:47 PM..
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Old 11-20-2019, 05:19 PM
 
Location: California → Tennessee → Ohio
1,608 posts, read 3,078,179 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
You should also also track:

3.) counties and cites where the majority of homicides happened in the 80s and early 90s to where the majority is today.
Here's the homicide rates for various California counties for that time frame.

1980-1994
Alameda County 12.7
Contra Costa County 10.0
Fresno County 14.2
Kern County 12.4
Los Angeles County 19.5
Orange County 6.2
Riverside County 11.4
Sacramento County 9.4
San Bernardino County 13.0
San Diego County 8.1
San Francisco County 13.0
San Joaquin County 12.3
San Mateo County 6.0
Santa Clara County 5.1
Sonoma County 5.1
Stanislaus County 7.0
Ventura County 5.3
California 11.9
USA 9.3

And here's the rates for this past decade for comparison.

2010-2017
Alameda County 7.4
Contra Costa County 6.3
Fresno County 7.3
Kern County 9.0
Los Angeles County 6.1
Orange County 2.1
Riverside County 4.1
Sacramento County 6.2
San Bernardino County 6.1
San Diego County 2.9
San Francisco County 5.3
San Joaquin County 10.3
San Mateo County 2.4
Santa Clara County 2.7
Sonoma County 2.2
Stanislaus County 6.0
Ventura County 2.9
California 5.1
USA 5.4

Source - https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

Last edited by caliguy92832; 11-20-2019 at 05:29 PM..
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Old 11-20-2019, 05:59 PM
 
478 posts, read 691,639 times
Reputation: 546
2017 stats
https://abc30.com/homicides-down-by-...ounty/4978297/
For comparison:
Fresno COUNTY (fresno, clovis, etc): 32
City of Oakland alone: 66
Alameda COUNTY (includes oakland): 85
Contra Costa COUNTY: 38
San Francisco: 42
bay area source:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/...omicides-2018/
Sacramento: 39
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/cr...198102994.html
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