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Old 05-09-2020, 03:16 PM
 
6,675 posts, read 4,278,056 times
Reputation: 8441

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Quote:
Originally Posted by janellen View Post
Dang! This isn't good news. I thought staying home would be a sure fire way to keep from getting sick. According to Governor Cuomo, 66% of new cases in New York were people who had stayed home. Anybody have stats for California on this?
Cuomo: It’s ‘shocking’ most new NY virus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home
I think of a certain poster here that keeps going on and on about how we’d be out of this already if everyone just stayed home for two weeks.

Think again.

 
Old 05-09-2020, 03:29 PM
 
3,347 posts, read 2,311,269 times
Reputation: 2819
I would always be curious why rates kept skyrocketing even in parts of the world that entered its fourth week of lockdown back in April . And that's in places that literally went martial law on it. And actively forbid even exercise and with force except for trips to the grocery store or allowing a dog to "go." If 14 days were all it takes than why these places remain lockdown with cases skyrocketing for more than 8 weeks before it started to subside?

Yet the curve was not as bad in places with more relaxed policies of the world and is currently also improving fast these days without ever taking such draconian Orwellian measures.

Apparently it appears each high-density housing complex common in European cities and NYC acted like incubators for the disease so people living in units within them end up getting infected anyways. Which seems to be what happened on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship and other cruise ships when they were kepted onboard inside their rooms for 14 days.

Another consequence was due to the panic reaction for masses of expats, students, ski/winter & beach resort workers, volunteers, families, abroad returning home in short notice and crowding airports, planes, trains, buses, roadways, and stations may had resulted in mass community spread to whoever they contact along the way as well as family members at homes they return to. Not to mention all that panic shopping in the beginning two weeks of March leading to the lockdown. Imagine so many people touching shopping carts, reusable bags, grocery items, cash and card machines at grocery markets. The transmissions continued as people went out to grocery markets again to look for toilet paper and others often having to wait in line. I be curious while curbside pickup is increasingly required for stores to reopen I be curious why it wasn't mandated in the first place for convenience stores, pharmacies, and grocery stores. Apparently stores like Trader Joes still insist to do things the old way and continue to do so with no options for curbside pickup nor deliveries.
Also I wish there was a way to allow people to access items that needed to be delivered and restocked without having to go "black Friday" each time they get restocked. I.e a virtual line system.
 
Old 05-09-2020, 03:44 PM
 
8,609 posts, read 5,618,718 times
Reputation: 5116
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ancial-profits
 
Old 05-09-2020, 05:35 PM
 
4,022 posts, read 1,876,931 times
Reputation: 8647
It does not take 14 days - unless you're getting better. It takes 18 days (on average) to die - so if there were no change in the death trajectory after say, 20 days - then you could say it did nothing. But in every case - it changed. No place needed 8 weeks to "start" to subside (after "locking down"). For instance, Italy locked down on March 8. On March 28th their perfect exponential curve hung a right hand turn.



There is no place with "relaxed" policies that had a better curve. If so - please find it and post.



but regarding the OP - there are already at least two threads about this. Your conclusions are wrong - no offense - his data is correct - but it means nothing without the NUMBER of people. A higher percent of "at home" - which, by the way, turns out to ONLY mean they weren't working- NOT that they were actually isolated - so pretty much junk anyway - but still - the higher percent could ALSO mean that fewer people OUTSIDE are getting sick, because they're all mostly over it now. The INSIDE number stayed the same - but as a percent - it got big. No way to know from his data.
 
Old 05-09-2020, 05:41 PM
 
Location: San Diego CA
301 posts, read 164,721 times
Reputation: 487
New York is much denser than CA. If people there are staying inside and still catching the virus,
they must be on top of each other or multiple people in 1 home.

Better to live alone, work from home, and have zero family, roommates, or friends... and stay away from your neighbors.

Do not ask me how I know this
 
Old 05-09-2020, 06:01 PM
 
Location: SoCal
4,169 posts, read 2,142,045 times
Reputation: 2317
This is the exact reason why all states should have already reopened
 
Old 05-09-2020, 06:44 PM
 
Location: Tulare County, Ca
1,570 posts, read 1,379,835 times
Reputation: 3225
Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279 View Post
It does not take 14 days - unless you're getting better. It takes 18 days (on average) to die - so if there were no change in the death trajectory after say, 20 days - then you could say it did nothing. But in every case - it changed. No place needed 8 weeks to "start" to subside (after "locking down"). For instance, Italy locked down on March 8. On March 28th their perfect exponential curve hung a right hand turn.



There is no place with "relaxed" policies that had a better curve. If so - please find it and post.



but regarding the OP - there are already at least two threads about this. Your conclusions are wrong - no offense - his data is correct - but it means nothing without the NUMBER of people. A higher percent of "at home" - which, by the way, turns out to ONLY mean they weren't working- NOT that they were actually isolated - so pretty much junk anyway - but still - the higher percent could ALSO mean that fewer people OUTSIDE are getting sick, because they're all mostly over it now. The INSIDE number stayed the same - but as a percent - it got big. No way to know from his data.

You misunderstood my post. I had no conclusion, only questions. Rather I was looking for possible explanations from others' viewpoints. You make some valid points, and yes, there's no way to know how truly isolated they were. Still............66%? That's a lot. No offense taken.
 
Old 05-09-2020, 07:10 PM
 
3,347 posts, read 2,311,269 times
Reputation: 2819
Sorry i meant more than 4 weeks. It was still pretty bad second week of April based on reports.

Originally many agencies around the country and world stated they were only shutting down for 14 days. Thus people and companies never expected it to last until mid May if not June. Thus it was not something they financially were able to compensate for. Ski resorts and amusement parks as well as schools originally thought they could reopen as early as first week of April were surprised they were going to have to extend their closure indefinitely.

Taiwan never truly shutdown but their cases despite being highly densely populated and close to China, yet remain very low. They did do good job with sanitizing public spaces and quarantining new arrivals with health checks though. And now they have apps letting people know how crowded each attractions are.

Japan, despite being packed like sardines, and having a large amount of elderly as has been spared the worst even though it’s shutdown which was a soft shutdown begin in first week of April in some parts of the country, only expanded to nationwide mid April.

Scandinavian countries seem to have pretty soft lockdowns as well with Sweden being mostly open.

Interestingly the City of Monterey Park in California next to LA Metro ares seems pretty lucky that it has pretty low per capita number of cases for a city of that size, about fifty Percent population of Chinese/Asian origin, and a good number of them elderly in the high risk age group. It appears there are zero deaths in this city. Hard to believe with so many elderly.
Not to mention how many people travel to and from China and stay in Monterey Park before the China travel ban begin.

On the flip side there are cities in CA that has almost no contact with people from China yet has a very high number of cases per capita.

Last edited by citizensadvocate; 05-09-2020 at 07:23 PM..
 
Old 05-09-2020, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Sierra Nevada Land, CA
9,455 posts, read 12,546,803 times
Reputation: 16453
It is pretty clear that some people who post on CD think they know more about medical issues than medical professionals.

There is a reason why CA has such a low rate of CV. Florida opened up its state on Monday and now reports 2500 new cases as of yesterday.
 
Old 05-09-2020, 07:39 PM
 
Location: SoCal
4,169 posts, read 2,142,045 times
Reputation: 2317
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr5150 View Post
It is pretty clear that some people who post on CD think they know more about medical issues than medical professionals.

There is a reason why CA has such a low rate of CV. Florida opened up its state on Monday and now reports 2500 new cases as of yesterday.
Number of reported infected is not a big deal.
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