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Old 07-01-2020, 09:19 AM
 
6,089 posts, read 4,991,082 times
Reputation: 5985

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Quote:
Originally Posted by goodheathen View Post
Death rates go up if the infections are extremely common.
That's usually true.

But what happens when infections increase 3-4 (even more) times, and the death rate continues to plunge?

Then what?

 
Old 07-01-2020, 09:53 AM
 
Location: So Ca
26,747 posts, read 26,841,237 times
Reputation: 24800
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
Make believe is so fun!
I guess you answered my question.
 
Old 07-01-2020, 10:20 AM
 
5,381 posts, read 8,693,385 times
Reputation: 4550
Quote:
Originally Posted by CA4Now View Post
I guess you answered my question.

"This site says...
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to
CA4Now again"

 
Old 07-01-2020, 10:46 AM
 
3,155 posts, read 2,704,338 times
Reputation: 11985
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
That's usually true.

But what happens when infections increase 3-4 (even more) times, and the death rate continues to plunge?

Then what?
That's actually what has happened in Sweden. The death rate dropped to near-zero despite picking up a second wave of 800-1300 new cases a day. It has now been over 20 days since Sweden's most recent spike of cases, so we should have seen an uptick in deaths by now. If they do not increase in a sustained way in the next 2 weeks, then we're seeing something different. Maybe a mutation in the virus. Maybe a near-zero death rate for healthy young people. Maybe something unique to Sweden.

Oddly, the same did not occur in Iran, which saw a second wave of virus after opening, and then a corresponding second wave of deaths.

Unfortunately, I think that the drop in Swedish deaths is due to better infrastructure, better healthcare, a cohesive national response, and a healthier and more socially-responsible public. The United States--in it's currently dysfunctional state--is probably closer to Iran than Sweden and will likely follow in Iran's footsteps, rather than Sweden's.

BUT, if the number of deaths diminishes to a background level of a few hundred a day, one month from today, assuming new cases are at a >50,000 per day level, I think that we should completely change our response to the virus, fully reopen society, and resume normal everyday life. I would certainly go out, send my children to school/camp, and travel in that case.

However, masks should be mandatory indoors and strongly encouraged in busy outdoor areas.
 
Old 07-01-2020, 10:48 AM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,616 posts, read 4,887,429 times
Reputation: 3601
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
That's usually true.

But what happens when infections increase 3-4 (even more) times, and the death rate continues to plunge?

Then what?
That paradox will resolve itself soon. Older age groups can't hunker down and be protected much more than has become the norm, outside that range men around 40 or so can die from the virus, and hospitals can only handle so many patients before quality of care deteriorates.
 
Old 07-01-2020, 12:10 PM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,616 posts, read 4,887,429 times
Reputation: 3601
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
That's actually what has happened in Sweden. The death rate dropped to near-zero despite picking up a second wave of 800-1300 new cases a day. It has now been over 20 days since Sweden's most recent spike of cases, so we should have seen an uptick in deaths by now. If they do not increase in a sustained way in the next 2 weeks, then we're seeing something different. Maybe a mutation in the virus. Maybe a near-zero death rate for healthy young people. Maybe something unique to Sweden.

Oddly, the same did not occur in Iran, which saw a second wave of virus after opening, and then a corresponding second wave of deaths.

Unfortunately, I think that the drop in Swedish deaths is due to better infrastructure, better healthcare, a cohesive national response, and a healthier and more socially-responsible public. The United States--in it's currently dysfunctional state--is probably closer to Iran than Sweden and will likely follow in Iran's footsteps, rather than Sweden's.

BUT, if the number of deaths diminishes to a background level of a few hundred a day, one month from today, assuming new cases are at a >50,000 per day level, I think that we should completely change our response to the virus, fully reopen society, and resume normal everyday life. I would certainly go out, send my children to school/camp, and travel in that case.

However, masks should be mandatory indoors and strongly encouraged in busy outdoor areas.
Your claims about Sweden are misleading (e.g., "fully reopen").
https://fortune.com/2020/07/01/swede...investigation/

On the most accurate part, relatively few deaths per infection, that possibly is because Swedes seldom gather in large crowds and don't share residences with more than a few people.
 
Old 07-01-2020, 12:41 PM
 
8,609 posts, read 5,622,039 times
Reputation: 5116
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
Right, BLM protests aren't causing infections to surge, it was "Disney visitors", where one of the strictest mask policies is actually enforced for entry.

Make believe is so fun!
Did you find Bigfoot yet?
 
Old 07-01-2020, 01:33 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
42,850 posts, read 26,307,990 times
Reputation: 34059
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
That's usually true.

But what happens when infections increase 3-4 (even more) times, and the death rate continues to plunge?

Then what?
It's not "plunging" and neither are hospitalizations

https://www.kqed.org/science/1964968...-how-its-going
 
Old 07-01-2020, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
42,850 posts, read 26,307,990 times
Reputation: 34059
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodheathen View Post
Your claims about Sweden are misleading (e.g., "fully reopen").
https://fortune.com/2020/07/01/swede...investigation/

On the most accurate part, relatively few deaths per infection, that possibly is because Swedes seldom gather in large crowds and don't share residences with more than a few people.
You're right, Sweden has a very high number of single family homes per capita and over 1/2 of Swedish households consist of one person https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/pr...tRedirect=true
 
Old 07-01-2020, 02:56 PM
 
3,155 posts, read 2,704,338 times
Reputation: 11985
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodheathen View Post
Your claims about Sweden are misleading (e.g., "fully reopen").
https://fortune.com/2020/07/01/swede...investigation/

On the most accurate part, relatively few deaths per infection, that possibly is because Swedes seldom gather in large crowds and don't share residences with more than a few people.
Density of housing might effect transmission rate. Explain how it could effect CFR, please.

Also, I never said Sweden fully reopened. I said WE could fully reopen in the unlikely case that CA4whatever's pipe dream of low death rates and high infection rates came true. It won't.

In fact, it looks like we're going into eternal lockdowns, Since the governor is ordering a re-locking of 70% of the population. Of course, they're not issuing telescreens yet, so in-house gatherings may continue to spread the disease despite regulations on businesses.

If people comply with orders, expect to remain in this COVID twilight zone for upwards of 18 more months. With a second lockdown, we'll run up to about 8,000-10,000 new (tested) infections per day, then hang there (as we did during the REAL lockdown) until a slow tail-off as the virus burns through the susceptible population. Sometime inbetween we might get a vaccine.
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