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Old 07-05-2020, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Ca expat loving Idaho
5,267 posts, read 4,184,606 times
Reputation: 8139

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Quote:
Originally Posted by joosoon View Post
I guess the question is, how much will it change as they process the latest death cert data? It's inferred that it will go up, but CDC doesn't directly say that. Eventually, there will have to be a discussion of what mortality rate is acceptable.


When the shutdown first went into effect, it was to be for two weeks to starve the virus in closed public spaces like businesses and schools. Nobody here needs a reminder that that never happened. It's obvious by now that there will continue to be a rubberband effect every time the measures are loosened/re-tightened since nothing in the equation has changed in terms of the virus's presence. It makes no sense to keep shutting stuff down and expecting that to work.
I agree with everything you posted. What are states going to do if numbers still go up after everyone is wearing masks? A lot of businesses are on the brink of collapse. My niece was just laid off again from Paramount after being called back for 2 weeks. TMZ is reporting today that bars and nightclubs In LA are done for. Hard decisions have to be made on how we have to live with this virus. I think we’re in the middle of herd immunity. The virus is running free and nothing stops it. Not even closing beaches or restaurants

 
Old 07-05-2020, 02:16 PM
 
Location: SoCal
4,169 posts, read 2,144,239 times
Reputation: 2317
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodheathen View Post
People need to be locked down more tightly during those periods. No partying, for example. Infected people fully quarantined. Also, the medical community is gradually learning how to stop infections from progressing into dangerous symptoms.

Let me guess you want to copy China and /or Italy method? That is not going to happen. We didn't have any real lock down the first time and we are not going to have it now. Public will not stand for it, if you think BLM riot was bad, wait to see what happens if real lock down is attempted.
 
Old 07-05-2020, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
42,850 posts, read 26,301,017 times
Reputation: 34059
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike930 View Post
The good news is that the mortality rate has dropped for ten weeks. If it is mainly the bar hoppers that are responsible for the spike, the death rate should continue to decline since they are younger. Time will tell.
OMG I hope so, I just hope this virus hasn't figured that out and started to mutate so that it can kill younger people
 
Old 07-05-2020, 02:49 PM
 
Location: So Ca
26,739 posts, read 26,834,489 times
Reputation: 24795
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finper View Post
I think we’re in the middle of herd immunity. The virus is running free and nothing stops it.
That sure isn't true.

Miller added, “I think the herd immunity threshold [for naturally acquired immunity] is less than 60%, but I don’t see clear evidence that any [place] is close to it.”

Ultimately, the only way to truly escape the COVID-19 pandemic is to achieve large-scale herd immunity — everywhere, not just in a small number of places where infections have been highest. And that will likely only happen once a vaccine is in widespread use.

In the meantime, to prevent the spread of the virus and lower that R0 value as much as possible, distancing, masks, testing and contact tracing are the order of the day everywhere, regardless of where you place the herd immunity threshold.

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19
Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated:

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-t...nity-20200630/
 
Old 07-05-2020, 03:36 PM
 
Location: Mount Airy, Maryland
16,282 posts, read 10,421,470 times
Reputation: 27599
Whenever I see a poster reference herd immunity as a way out of this I instantly dismiss them as ignorant.
 
Old 07-05-2020, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
42,850 posts, read 26,301,017 times
Reputation: 34059
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveinMtAiry View Post
Whenever I see a poster reference herd immunity as a way out of this I instantly dismiss them as ignorant.
Same here
 
Old 07-06-2020, 12:38 PM
 
6,089 posts, read 4,990,256 times
Reputation: 5985
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca...ffect/2300400/

More people got shot and killed in Chicago this past 4th of July weekend than died of Covid-19.

Guess which one the MSM news is hyper focused on right now.
 
Old 07-06-2020, 12:41 PM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,616 posts, read 4,885,622 times
Reputation: 3601
You mean MSN? Nationally coronavirus is harming more people than murders. True in Chicago also.
 
Old 07-07-2020, 08:26 AM
 
Location: On the water.
21,741 posts, read 16,361,136 times
Reputation: 19831
How humans are making pandemics more likely

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp5CEcIyk94
 
Old 07-07-2020, 09:03 AM
 
14,319 posts, read 11,714,153 times
Reputation: 39165
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
You're right, and as I have mentioned before my doctor said she thinks that it's possible that in the future patients who have recovered from Covid might find themselves with an entirely new condition to deal with. The example she gave me was people getting shingles after having had chickenpox decades earlier.
This is possible, but it's pure speculation and, as such, fearmongering. Most people who had chickenpox never get shingles, and most people who get other viruses don't have weird side effects decades later. We have a lot worse things to worry about right now, like the survival of our society.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
OMG I hope so, I just hope this virus hasn't figured that out and started to mutate so that it can kill younger people
Viruses aren't sentient, like they might appear in a bad science fiction movie. They can't "figure anything out," and they are subject to survival of the fittest like everything else. A virus that mutates to kill MORE of its hosts is less likely to survive. It needs a host. As a result, virus mutations tend to shift toward less fatal, not more fatal.
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