Coronavirus (Nice: building, market, rain)

[SandyCo]

LOL, from your mouth to God's ears!

I went to Urgent Care a month ago when I thought my toe was broken (it wasn't; it was just a bad sprain). If that happened now? I'd just tape it to the toe next to it and hope for the best. I know people are being given instructions to call ahead first if they think they have COVID-19, but I don't have faith that 100% are following those directions.

Originally Posted by Mike930

Easy. I’ve given instructions to my appendix not to rupture and my heart not to
attack me.

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

blown out of proportion until you or someone you love comes down with it.

You mean just like when someone come down with the flu?

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Don't they have a coronavirus thread on the Texas forum?

I am sure they do. AS someone who still likely owns far more CA property than you I'll post wherever the hell I want. You worry about you.

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

The mortality rate from influenza is about .01 the mortality rate from Covid-19 is 1% to 3.5%. It's been suggested that unless contained, 25-50% of the population of the US will contract this virus. If you remove children under 18 from consideration, you are looking at 253 million people, if 1/4 became infected that is 63 million people, if mortality was on the low end of the estimate then we are looking at 630,000 deaths. If the mortality rate was 2% then we can expect 1,260,000 deaths.

This is incorrect as has been proven and shown. Doing math on known cases is pointless. There are thousands walking around with this who have no idea. They will never seek medical attention because they don't need it, won't report because they didn't know they had it, and will recover and move on with their lives.

Originally Posted by SandyCo

For those of you concerned about the economy in regards to this virus, here is another lesson in basic math:

U.S. population in 2018 - 327,000,000

It's projected that 40-60% will become infected. Let's use 40%, because we're optimists.
40% of 327,000,000 = 130,800,000.

Of those 130,800,000 infected, 20% will need some kind of medical intervention.
20% of 130,800,000 = 26,160,000 people.

Now of course, not everyone will get sick at once, so let's divide 26,160,000 over 18 months. That's still 1,453,333 people needing oxygen or a ventilator, and please don't forget that recovery for the severely ill takes three to six weeks!

Does anyone want to guess how many ventilators the U.S. currently has? Maybe 10,000. Can we get more? We don't know; it seems that every other country is dealing with the exact same issues.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...gh-ventilators

If we don't practice social distancing and flatten the curve now, we're looking at an incredible number of people dying in the next six months. Yes, most of them will be over 70 - but not all of them. And what happens when the COVID-19 patients are using up all of the hospital beds, and your appendix suddenly ruptures? Or you have a heart attack?

If you're looking at these numbers and you think that flattening the curve with voluntary social distancing won't be enough, you're right. That's why suppression (concerts cancelled, etc.) is coming into play now. Stopping this virus from spreading so quickly is our only hope. We're buying time until a vaccine can be developed.

Faulty math again.

[Social Democrat]

Originally Posted by Bolanders

You mean just like when someone come down with the flu?



I am sure they do. AS someone who still likely owns far more CA property than you I'll post wherever the hell I want. You worry about you.



This is incorrect as has been proven and shown. Doing math on known cases is pointless. There are thousands walking around with this who have no idea. They will never seek medical attention because they don't need it, won't report because they didn't know they had it, and will recover and move on with their lives.




Faulty math again.

Do you have an example of un-faulty math from a credible source?

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by Social Democrat

Do you have an example of un-faulty math from a credible source?

All mortality rates are based on reported cases. Take the number of reported cases and divide by the deaths and you get the reported mortality rate of about 1.7-2.5%. If you think there are not thousands (f not tens of thousands) that have this and won't/don't report because a) they don't know they have it, b) think it is something else, c)fail to get tested, d) already recovering and feeling better, etc. then you are being naive.

My bigger fear is how many people's lives will be ruined financially from this quarantining? Tens of millions is my guess.

[Bill the Butcher]

Originally Posted by Bolanders

If you think there are not thousands (f not tens of thousands) that have this and won't/don't report because a) they don't know they have it, b) think it is something else, c)fail to get tested, d) already recovering and feeling better, etc. then you are being naive.

Wouldn't the above points also be true of the flu? Meaning the historical flu mortality rate is actually lower too. So if we lower both by equal amounts COVID 19 still has a much higher mortality rate.

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher

Wouldn't the above points also be true of the flu? Meaning the historical flu mortality rate is actually lower too. So if we lower both by equal amounts COVID 19 still has a much higher mortality rate.

Flu has more and longer data and is more symptomatic which means higher reporting rates. It absolutely could and is likely to be true of the flu though as you wrote. There is no doubt there are unreported cases of the flu, but since this mimics a cold and many times shows little to no symptoms means reporting will be less than the Flu.

For the record I do believe this has a higher mortality rate than the Flu. it isn't 2% though. IMO it is likely under .5% and definitely under 1%. This will ruin far more lives from the quarantine though.

Also if you believe in handling something like this with this quarantining to save an absolute number of lives then why wouldn't/don't you believe in banning cigarettes which kill over 100,000 people per year and around 7,000 people per year from second hand smoke, and quarantining every single winter so the Flu doesn't kill 80,000 people?

DO I think people should stay home if they are sick and have symptoms? Yes
Should the elderly or health compromised people take precautions? yes.
Should we be shutting down the country to ruin tens of millions of lives? No IMO

[RationalExpectations]

Younger people are referring to Covid-19 with the hashtag #BoomerRemover. Many articles about college age and early 20-somethings out partying and ignoring the social isolation recommendations, because, for the most part, they don't want to be bored. Many say they resent the idea of being shut in for an extended period of time just because some elderly people might kick the bucket.

Because social isolation is currently the best tool, their wilful flaunting of the social isolation recommendations/directives is a big negative.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Bolanders

I do believe this has a higher mortality rate than the Flu. it isn't 2% though. IMO it is likely under .5% and definitely under 1%. This will ruin far more lives from the quarantine though.

You're way off.

Global case fatality rate of COVID-19:

Based on the discussion of the definition of the case fatality rate (CFR), we should stress again that there is no single figure of CFR for any particular disease. The CFR varies by location, and is typically changing over time.

However, with a good understanding of the measure and its limitations, CFR is helpful for understanding what we currently know about the severity of the disease and for responding accordingly.

In the period up to and including 15th March 2020, the global Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 are as follows.

Case fatality rate globally = 3.7%
[based on 153,523 confirmed cases and 5736 deaths]

Case fatality rate in China: 3.9%
[based on 81,038 confirmed cases and 3204 deaths]

Case fatality rate for the rest of the world: 3.5%
[based on 72,475 confirmed and 2532 deaths]

As explained above, this number has changed and it will continue to change. It’s currently higher than the estimates of a CFR of around 2% that were published until early February.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-from-covid-19

[Trekker99]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Younger people are referring to Covid-19 with the hashtag #BoomerRemover. Many articles about college age and early 20-somethings out partying and ignoring the social isolation recommendations, because, for the most part, they don't want to be bored. Many say they resent the idea of being shut in for an extended period of time just because some elderly people might kick the bucket.

Because social isolation is currently the best tool, their wilful flaunting of the social isolation recommendations/directives is a big negative.

Doesn't surprise me.

Adulting is *soooooo* hard for these younglings that they giggle in anticipation for some sort of trickle down inheritance so they don't have to get a job (texting and liking takes up soooo much important time).

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

You're way off.

Global case fatality rate of COVID-19:

Based on the discussion of the definition of the case fatality rate (CFR), we should stress again that there is no single figure of CFR for any particular disease. The CFR varies by location, and is typically changing over time.

However, with a good understanding of the measure and its limitations, CFR is helpful for understanding what we currently know about the severity of the disease and for responding accordingly.

In the period up to and including 15th March 2020, the global Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 are as follows.

Case fatality rate globally = 3.7%
[based on 153,523 confirmed cases and 5736 deaths]

Case fatality rate in China: 3.9%
[based on 81,038 confirmed cases and 3204 deaths]

Case fatality rate for the rest of the world: 3.5%
[based on 72,475 confirmed and 2532 deaths]

As explained above, this number has changed and it will continue to change. It’s currently higher than the estimates of a CFR of around 2% that were published until early February.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-from-covid-19

Apparently you don't understand the difference between reported and not reported. When you do you will understand why the math is off.