Will California become less Blue this election?

[Huckleberry3911948]

No it will become socialist neither red nor blue

[2x3x29x41]

We now have some solid baseline data to compare to 2016.

Clinton took 61.7% in CA four years ago, to Trump's 31.6%, a margin of +30.1%.
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov...-formatted.pdf

Presently, the CA totals stand at Clinton 65.1%, Trump 33.0%, a margin of 32.1%., with 77% of precincts reporting.
https://ballotpedia.org/California_e..._results,_2020

As vote-tabulation continues, it should be noted that for the past several presidential elections, mail-in ballots counted after Election Day have added several points to the Democratic nominee's margin.
https://twitter.com/baseballot/statu...897026050?s=20

Thus, between the increase of 2.0% of the Democratic margin so far, and the likelihood that this increase will expand a bit until the final results are in, it is clear that California has moved in the opposite direction than your speculation suggested.

One final note:
The third-party/independent vote in 2016 in CA comprised 3.7% of the total vote going to right-of-center candidates compared to 3.0% for left-of-center candidates.

Compare that to 2020, where left-of-center third party/independent candidates are pulling 1.0% of the vote compared to 0.9% of the vote going to right-of-center third party/independent candidates. This entails another net 0.8% shift blue.

Originally Posted by MrJester

This is just my speculation, of course no one knows until after the election.

But, I am kind of sensing that California has swung so far left, that the political pendulum will start to swing rightwards again.

Now, of course, I am not saying California will ever become a red state or even a purple state. It will still remain a blue state. But perhaps a little less blue.

While in 2016, Hillary beat Trump in California by a greater margin than in any other state except Hawaii, I saw a poll show that in 2020, Trump will make some (small) gains in California even as the Democrats under Biden make gains in other solid blue states like Massachusetts. Even as the Dems poll better under Biden than they did under Hillary nationwide. Even though Biden picked California senator Harris as his VP, it didn't seem to make California more pro Biden.

Scott Wiener's Senate Bill 50 and it's variants, which would have allowed rezoning to accommodate much more urban density, failed. The California HSR is starting to lose more and more support as people realize what a boondoggle it is.

Mike Garcia flipped Congressional District 25 to become red, a remarkable feat given the district is in deep blue Los Angeles, although Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley are basically the most conservative part of Los Angeles, and Katie Hill was embroiled in a sex scandal.

I predict that at least one of the congressional districts covering Orange County will flip red. After all, it was voter fraud and ballot harvesting that allowed Dems to snatch the Orange County districts from Republicans. Orange County is now a swing county, and you bet that Democrats will be hard at work in all the swing counties, swing districts, and swing states at voter fraud.

Also, it seems like Prop 15 will fail narrowly, as in the polls, less than half of respondents support it, and support is dropping. The affirmative action proposition seems dead on arrival, given the large numbers of otherwise solidly Democratic Asians who will rush to the polls to vote no on that proposition.

Once again, I don't think California will ever become red or even purple. But maybe it will become a bit less progressive, like Colorado, perhaps?

Ironically, all the Californians leaving for Texas, Idaho, and Arizona seem to be the liberal Californians, as all three states are getting bluer as Californians move in. It seems like the conservatives in California are staying in California. It seems like the ones moving out of California are largely young and more democratic, while the ones who are staying are older, more conservative people who have made good money on their houses they bought for affordable prices thirty plus years ago and will vote no on every attempt to get rid of prop 13. Prop 15 might be for commercial property only, but they know that if commercial properties lose Prop 13 protections, residential properties are next.

[citizensadvocate]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

The conservative powerhouse that Ronald Reagan once described as “where all the good Republicans go to die” is now supposedly dead, according to progressive activists. But there’s still life in the O.C. GOP corpse.

The cure? Pretending the coronavirus isn’t a thing.

COVID-19 has walloped Orange County, with over 61,000 cases and nearly 1,500 deaths. But in the coastal cities that remain the Republican Party’s last true stronghold, residents and politicians have waged war against its inconvenience to their blessed lives.

Restaurants have proudly flouted public safety guidelines restricting indoor dining. Cities and school boards filed lawsuits against California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s shutdowns. Protests against the simple act of wearing a mask draw thousands.

In polite society, such callous disregard for public health gets you shunned.

In Orange County? It gets you elected.

Dr. Jeffrey Barke, who retained his board seat in the services district that oversees the unincorporated community of Rossmoor, is a far-right darling for casting doubt on the effectiveness of masks to combat the spread of the coronavirus and insisting its fatality rate “is in the ballpark of a bad seasonal influenza.”

Down in the southern tip of Orange County, San Clemente Councilman Gene James won reelection with tough-guy Facebook talk such as saying he “will no longer be complicit with the tyranny of Sacramento” and its coronavirus policies.

In Newport Beach, incumbent Councilman Will O’Neill took the bold stance in February of opposing the transfer of any coronavirus-infected patients to a facility ... in neighboring Costa Mesa. Meanwhile, City Council candidate Noah Blom got an F from the Orange County Register over the summer— not for his political agenda, but for allowing workers at his restaurant to not wear masks and operating “the indoor dining room and bar as if the pandemic has never happened.”

Both easily won their races.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...s-election-day

Interesting though Orange County doesn’t seem worse than much more progressive neighboring LA county or other counties such as San Diego or the inland counties such as Riverside or San Bernadino for COVID19. Despite being one of the densest counties in California.

Orange County resisted against closing beaches(which made zero sense anyways) that is except for Fourth of July though I guess they really don’t want LA county folks inundating them as they themselves avoid the beach in July 4th anyways so make no difference if they are open,, and amazingly unlike when Newsom ordered them closed they complied cheerfully this time with 12 foot high chain link fences and unlike Newsom’s closures back in Mayo rebellious-surfers didn’t jump this fence this time . Though Surfers did jump the Malibu fence in LA county for Fourth of July.

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by stone26

While that may be a step in the right direction (for you), if it doesn’t break the supermajority in the legislature, it doesn’t really change a thing at the state level.

This is what matters. I'm no fan of absolute control by one party, with one ideology, ruling over a state with 40M people. There was a point not too long ago where even within the parties, there was some disparity in the beliefs of its members. That, along with a more balanced structure, let the state function. The supermajority was born out of the Democratic party's desire to pass tax measures without restriction. The legislature is now a monolith so the check to that has been pushed up to the governor's veto. Brown's approach was at least a little pragmatic. Newsom, not so much. The judicial is the last gasp of keeping things square but its pace tends be sub-glacial, a flaw which is exploited by the other two branches.


The fact that California has won back some "red" representation in U.S. Congress doesn't even register on my radar of how that improves things or how it possibly works to our detriment. National politics is almost meaningless in California.

[dontbelievehim]

Trump won Tulare county by 7%
Tulare is one of the reddest parts of the central valley and the home of Devin Nunes. Once Tulare goes blue, that'll be a wrap for Republican congressman in California and the likely Republicans at the statewide level (you'll only see Republicans winning county/city spots from that point on).
Sorry, jester, You're dream of a redder California will stay a dream.

[CA4Now]

Well, don't this beat all.

In a major win for the GOP, U.S. Rep. Harley Rouda conceded to his Republican opponent, Michelle Steel, in the race for California’s 48th Congressional District, one of several hard-fought contests in areas that until recently were considered conservative strongholds.

The election win hands back to Republicans one of several seats lost in 2018 when Democrats made big gains in Orange County and other red-leaning areas.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-congress-race

[anononcty]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Well, don't this beat all.

In a major win for the GOP, U.S. Rep. Harley Rouda conceded to his Republican opponent, Michelle Steel, in the race for California’s 48th Congressional District, one of several hard-fought contests in areas that until recently were considered conservative strongholds.

The election win hands back to Republicans one of several seats lost in 2018 when Democrats made big gains in Orange County and other red-leaning areas.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-congress-race

Saw that. Rouda's campaign was accused of ballot harvesting as well in 2018. Preview for 22

[cttransplant85]

Republicans just took the lead in district 25 as well. How many seats will end up flipping? The people in the suburbs are not happy with leadership in the state.

[MrJester]

Originally Posted by cttransplant85

Republicans just took the lead in district 25 as well. How many seats will end up flipping? The people in the suburbs are not happy with leadership in the state.

Granted sure, these are suburban/rural districts that skew much more conservative than California as a whole, but gaining four more house districts is significant.

[apple92680]

Here's an interesting article about Asian Americans and Hispanic Americans -- two of California's fastest growing demographics. The author, Michael Lind, posits that -- with time -- integration into American life makes Asians more liberal and Hispanics more conservative.

This would seem to parallel with the points I made earlier about California turning less blue with a Hispanic majority over time.

Another thing to consider too, is that the House seats that flipped back to Republican area almost ALL located in Southern California, where Hispanics hold a lot of political sway. Unlike in Northern California where Hispanic electoral power is very diminished and Asian electoral power is more substantial.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/n...o-melting-pots