Will California become less Blue this election? (Los Angeles, Sacramento: middle-class, transplants)

[MrJester]

This is just my speculation, of course no one knows until after the election.

But, I am kind of sensing that California has swung so far left, that the political pendulum will start to swing rightwards again.

Now, of course, I am not saying California will ever become a red state or even a purple state. It will still remain a blue state. But perhaps a little less blue.

While in 2016, Hillary beat Trump in California by a greater margin than in any other state except Hawaii, I saw a poll show that in 2020, Trump will make some (small) gains in California even as the Democrats under Biden make gains in other solid blue states like Massachusetts. Even as the Dems poll better under Biden than they did under Hillary nationwide. Even though Biden picked California senator Harris as his VP, it didn't seem to make California more pro Biden.

Scott Wiener's Senate Bill 50 and it's variants, which would have allowed rezoning to accommodate much more urban density, failed. The California HSR is starting to lose more and more support as people realize what a boondoggle it is.

Mike Garcia flipped Congressional District 25 to become red, a remarkable feat given the district is in deep blue Los Angeles, although Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley are basically the most conservative part of Los Angeles, and Katie Hill was embroiled in a sex scandal.

I predict that at least one of the congressional districts covering Orange County will flip red. After all, it was voter fraud and ballot harvesting that allowed Dems to snatch the Orange County districts from Republicans. Orange County is now a swing county, and you bet that Democrats will be hard at work in all the swing counties, swing districts, and swing states at voter fraud.

Also, it seems like Prop 15 will fail narrowly, as in the polls, less than half of respondents support it, and support is dropping. The affirmative action proposition seems dead on arrival, given the large numbers of otherwise solidly Democratic Asians who will rush to the polls to vote no on that proposition.

Once again, I don't think California will ever become red or even purple. But maybe it will become a bit less progressive, like Colorado, perhaps?

Ironically, all the Californians leaving for Texas, Idaho, and Arizona seem to be the liberal Californians, as all three states are getting bluer as Californians move in. It seems like the conservatives in California are staying in California. It seems like the ones moving out of California are largely young and more democratic, while the ones who are staying are older, more conservative people who have made good money on their houses they bought for affordable prices thirty plus years ago and will vote no on every attempt to get rid of prop 13. Prop 15 might be for commercial property only, but they know that if commercial properties lose Prop 13 protections, residential properties are next.

[roadwarrior101]

I don't think so at the presidential election level. While Hilary beat Trump handily, this was despite the fact that she was considered a very controversial candidate and that Trump was a celebrity outsider. Of course any Democrat is going to win big because the major metropolitan areas lean far left, but Hilary was very unpopular in rural areas. Now that we've seen 4 years of the Trump dumpster fire, the fact that Biden is much less controversial and Kamala is pretty popular, I predict Biden to win by a significantly wider margin than Hilary won in 2016.

I also predict that the Trump dumpster fire will help down ballot Democratic representatives in congressional districts (as it will nationwide).

I do agree that the propositions will be a mixed bag. I do predict that Prop 16 will go down, as affirmative action is very unpopular in California with voters (at least its been historically).

I think Prop 15 will likely pass as most residents feel that companies have not been paying their fair share in taxes and this represents a better way to fund the schools without raising residential property taxes.

I think Prop 22 will fail because it is largely perceived by Californians as a mechanism by large corporations to avoid paying employee benefits.

[Trekker99]

If this year's state and local legislation (both proposed and passed) is any indication - no.

Woke is like a disease spreading thru CA like the china bug.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

I don't think so at the presidential election level. While Hilary beat Trump handily, this was despite the fact that she was considered a very controversial candidate and that Trump was a celebrity outsider. Of course any Democrat is going to win big because the major metropolitan areas lean far left, but Hilary was very unpopular in rural areas. Now that we've seen 4 years of the Trump dumpster fire, the fact that Biden is much less controversial and Kamala is pretty popular, I predict Biden to win by a significantly wider margin than Hilary won in 2016.

If Biden wins by the margin a current poll shows he will actually get a slightly lower share of the vote than Hillary Clinton, not that is makes a difference in the final outcome of course. Trumps support in CA seems the same as it was 4 years ago.

Landslide? Biden leads Trump by 26 points in California, but it’s far from the presidential drubbing 100 years ago

[MrJester]

Good analysis. However, the polls show prop 22 by a narrow lead while prop 15 is continuing to decline in popularity and has fallen below the 50 percent mark.

With the current expose on Biden corruption, I think Biden could very well be even more controversial than Hillary.

[sav858]

I wouldn't be surprised if CA swings ever so slightly to the right this election but overall I don't think it will be that different. I'm curious to see if Prop 15 passes, they worded it in a way to give it support but I hope it doesn't. It will be interesting to see how willing Californians are to raise taxes in a time like this.

[MrJester]

Originally Posted by sav858

I wouldn't be surprised if CA swings ever so slightly to the right this election but overall I don't think it will be that different. I'm curious to see if Prop 15 passes, they worded it in a way to give it support but I hope it doesn't. It will be interesting to see how willing Californians are willing to raise taxes in a time like this.

Well, the nation is shifting to the left, so if California just remains where it is, it will still look like it's shifting to the right a bit.

Speaking of property taxes, it's interesting that otherwise left wing and high tax. California has some of.the lowest property tax rates in the country thanks to Prop 13. Canada also has very low property tax rates, lower than even California, despite being a high tax country.

What do you think of the California state income tax hike? Likely to pass or fail?

Would you agree that it seems like it is the young, liberal Californians who are leaving California and turning Idaho, Arizona, and Texas more purple? And that the older, conservatives of California stay in California?

[wac_432]

Dude, you must be posting from some sort of parallel universe.

Ironically, all the Californians leaving for Texas, Idaho, and Arizona seem to be the liberal Californians, as all three states are getting bluer as Californians move in.

The ones leaving CA aren't the liberals. It's the lower-to-mid-middle-class conservatives. The data is clear.

I can tell you that my purple town has shifted radically left in response to Trump. I don't doubt that it will swing back to reddish-purple some day, but when you've got a president that constantly denigrates your state, abducts and then loses the kids of your neighbor's cousin, denies/delays essential aid for issues that should be nonpartisan like pandemics and wildfires, only the most radically/rabid members of his party still support him.

Every purple person I know, those "Fiscally conservative, socially liberal" have flipped hard left and have Biden/Harris signs + those "love trumps hate" signs.

There are a dwindling hard core of Trump supporters who still drive their white trucks around town, wave their flags, and harass/run over anyone of color or of a different political strip on a whim. They ran over peaceful BLM protestors, then they harassed and ran over Native Americans gathering for a photo shoot.

The number of--and tolerance for--conservatives in my town has taken a hard left turn. The hard core lefties turned into antifa in response, and fist fights have broken out between the two groups. Before Trump and the sad little "freedom caravan" either side could hold rallies wherever they wanted. Now, the only the liberals can safely walk the streets with BLM or defund the police signs, and they're out there every weekend. Conservatives are stuck in their trucks, and can't get boots on the ground without being mobbed, so they drive around flying their trump flags, but that's all they can manage.

You might not understand if you don't live here, but California is like everywhere else. People live here because they like it here. They like their neighbors. They might not always like Sacramento's politics or policies, but--except for those who live their entire lives in front of a computer in their basement political echo chamber--most people are loyal to their people. The current administration has made no secret of their hatred for California and encouraged the like-minded people of the United States to follow along. The natural knee-jerk reaction of Californians has been to make a hard left turn.

It may reverse somewhat if Biden becomes president, but the damage done to the California conservative party by the current administration's rhetoric will not be quickly undone.

As for me, I keep my ballot secret and my mouth shut about voting for conservative California state legislators. I hate the one-party rule in Sacramento, but I can see the reality that it is likely to continue in reaction to the Executive Branch chicanery that went on in D.C. over the last 4 years.

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by MrJester

Would you agree that it seems like it is the young, liberal Californians who are leaving California and turning Idaho, Arizona, and Texas more purple? And that the older, conservatives of California stay in California?

To answer the thread question, no.


Addressing the above, I'm skeptical of this trend I hear about so much here. For one thing, how are we defining these supposed "liberal Californians" who leave and what precisely are they doing in other states to turn the political tide? Is there any actual proof, as in say census data, that shows large enough swathes of Californians have arrived somewhere to dramatically alter their landing state's politics? It all seems rather dubious to me.


On a completely anecdotal note, the most "liberal Californians" I know are all themselves relatively new transplants from every corner of our nation. So are those people really Californians? Like I said, I don't see it as simple as everyone likes to frame it.

[davdaven]

Originally Posted by joosoon

To answer the thread question, no.

Addressing the above, I'm skeptical of this trend I hear about so much here. For one thing, how are we defining these supposed "liberal Californians" who leave and what precisely are they doing in other states to turn the political tide? Is there any actual proof, as in say census data, that shows large enough swathes of Californians have arrived somewhere to dramatically alter their landing state's politics? It all seems rather dubious to me.

On a completely anecdotal note, the most "liberal Californians" I know are all themselves relatively new transplants from every corner of our nation. So are those people really Californians? Like I said, I don't see it as simple as everyone likes to frame it.

This. The most "progressive" people I know moved here from out of state. The born-and-raised Californians I know tend to be more traditionally liberal (such as myself) or even moderate. If other states are becoming more blue as Californians move to them, I wouldn't be surprised if they were the blue folks that moved here to begin with.