Calling All California Real Estate Experts ... (Los Angeles: renters, squatters, houses)

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Dean Trails

It appears that land and improved parcels of land have depreciated quicker than houses. Would it be prudent to buy a parcel and have a home built? The cost of construction has dropped considerably as the bids are now very competitive. There are quite a few hungry contractors willing to cut their prices to stay in business. Also, material cost is way down. Then, you can have a well designed home just the way you like it?

Just a thought.

Yeah ... we're looking at that also. I'm not sure if it will be as cheap as the bank owned properties but ... we're definitely considering it.

The only problem is that all development has pretty much stopped with the housing bust so, you'd probably have to build a custom home which would probably be more expensive than a new housing tract.

Surprizingly, one of the few new housing tracts not far from this area are still actually selling anywhere from 400-600K. And the construction quality isn't very good.

[RCLL]

Originally Posted by Mika>Kimi

I am holding out for the same thing, though I might look at getting a duplex in the area

Dont be fooled that once prices have stabilized and prices hit rock bottom that you will be the only one bidding for a great piece of property. There will be investors looking for income producing properties, such as duplexes at a down rot low price in great areas. By the way someone should monitor that property on the OP to see when it sells and for what price. That could be a great guage of what the market is like there.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by RCLL

Dont be fooled that once prices have stabilized and prices hit rock bottom that you will be the only one bidding for a great piece of property. There will be investors looking for income producing properties, such as duplexes at a down rot low price in great areas.

It's already happening. The only way to compete is to make an all cash offer or, put as much cash down as you can. Those are the bids that win because the bank doesn't have to worry about the deal closing. They'll even take less money with an all cash offer.

[RCLL]

Originally Posted by sheri257

It's already happening. The only way to compete is to make an all cash offer or, put as much cash down as you can. Those are the bids that win because the bank doesn't have to worry about the deal closing. They'll even take less money with an all cash offer.

Absolutely. I'm here in silicon valley and very nice properties in great locations which are listed at a "discount" get taken very quickly and yeah with multiple bids. They never get the chance to hit rock bottom. On the other hand properties that are less desirable are more likely to be around at "rock bottom prices" So it boils down to what you really want: A great property at current prices or a less desirable property at a "steal"

[ndfmnlf]

Originally Posted by drshang

How many people in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000 thought that Japanese home prices had "bottomed"? Can real estate recessions really be "that bad"? Yes. Japan is a developed, first world nation just like the U.S.

Granted, U.S. home prices were not quite as overvalued as Japan's was at its peak, but for all of you people that think things can't fall more or live in some fantasy land that home prices have bottomed or will make 10x gains between now and 2040...or that if prices fall another 20k there will be 40 offers on a house...you might want to read about the Japanese real estate bubble. Real estate recessions, in the past in the U.S. and other countries are generally, slow, painful declines. Notice on the Japan chart a period of sharp declines followed by slow depreciation over a number of years.

What is the population growth rate in Japan? It's -0.139% in 2008. That's minus 0.139%. Japan Population growth rate - Demographics Japan is losing people.

Meanwhile, the US population growth rate is positive 1%. The US is gaining people.

Japan has more restrictive immigration policies. The US has more liberal immigration policies. Japan has an older median age (43.8 years) of its people compared to the US (36.6 years).

These differences in demographics suggest a more favorable prospect for quicker recovery in the US real estate market compared to Japan's. Positive population growth rate through natural births and immigration and lower median age in the child-bearing and household formation years create higher demand for housing in the US. This is not the case in Japan.

Your analysis comparing the US to Japan is flawed.

[cobmw]

Yea like the illegals sneaking into California will support the home prices. Do you really think California's real estate values can operate in a vacuum. The national economy is in tatters. Coming months will bring a litany of bad economic news to both California and the US. We are in for a very difficult period and I think a long one. So CA home values will escape and not go down a lot further?

[ndfmnlf]

Originally Posted by cobmw

Yea like the illegals sneaking into California will support the home prices. Do you really think California's real estate values can operate in a vacuum. The national economy is in tatters. Coming months will bring a litany of bad economic news to both California and the US. We are in for a very difficult period and I think a long one. So CA home values will escape and not go down a lot further?

Who's talking about illegals? I'm talking about immigration in general. Apparently you equate all immigration with illegal immigration. You've just exposed yourself as a xenophobe. Unless you've stuck your head in the sand, you might notice that the people buying homes in California and other US cities are highly paid legal immigrants (eg Asians in San Gabriel Valley and the Bay Area). These are engineers, nurses, doctors, etc.

Listen, there's a fundamental difference between Japan's demographics and US demographics. Japan is pretty much a closed society immigration-wise, and its native birth rate is slow to non-existent. The US is a more open society and the population is still growing. Ultimately, it is people who create economic growth. People are the ones who produce and consume.

[cobmw]

I did a quick look to find California's immigration numbers by race. Couldn't find anythig easily. But are you questioning the fact that Mexican illegal immigration is by far and away the dominant type occuring in CA? From what I recall the entire US allows about 850,000 legal immigrants into the country each year. California gets just a fraction of that. The illegal immigration coming to CA must be many multiples of the legal immigation. So throw around the race card all you like but the fact is that CA's major immigrant population is illegal Mexicans and they will not save the real estate market.

And try to have a factual converation rather that attacking will race nonsense.

[ndfmnlf]

Originally Posted by cobmw

I did a quick look to find California's immigration numbers by race. Couldn't find anythig easily. But are you questioning the fact that Mexican illegal immigration is by far and away the dominant type occuring in CA? From what I recall the entire US allows about 850,000 legal immigrants into the country each year. California gets just a fraction of that. The illegal immigration coming to CA must be many multiples of the legal immigation. So throw around the race card all you like but the fact is that CA's major immigrant population is illegal Mexicans and they will not save the real estate market.

And try to have a factual converation rather that attacking will race nonsense.

You are trying to hijack this thread with your anti-immigration nonsense. You are the one who diverted the topic to illegal immigration when all I was saying was that immigration patterns in Japan and US are totally diffferent, hence the analogy between the real estate crash in Japan and the real estate crash in the US doesn't hold water.

The point I'm making is that population growth is the driver to real estate demand. You can grow population in only 2 ways: birth or immigration. The Japanese birth rate is anemic and Japanese immigration policies are restrictive, which don't bode well for a quick real estate recovery. That is not the case in the United States where the birth rate is positive, and immigration policies are more liberal relative to Japan's. If you can't let that sink into your head without going off on a tangent about illegal Mexicans, then you are a hopeless case my friend.....

[cobmw]

You are correct about Japan's situation compared to ours. Actually the two would be quite similar if not for immigration into the US. That's because European decendants have birthrates below replacement rates.

The libs have corrupted the word immigrant. To promote their pro-illegal immigration stance they always mix legal and illegal immigrants into a group they simply call "immigrants". As a result if you want to refer to Vietnameese immigrants, etc you will have to use the words "legal immigrants" rather than just immigrants.

In any case immigrants of any nature are not going to save the US real estate markets from much greater declines in spite of the "bidding wars" that are being talked about on this board.