Do You Think Gavin Newsom Will Be the Next Governor? (San Francisco: office, best)

[happ]

If Gavin is the Democratic primary winner he will likely be the governor even if the GOP runs a very moderate candidate like former LA mayor Riordan. Whoever the Democrat is will be the next governor but I think Jerry Brown has a better chance of being governor again than Mayor Gavin. If Diane Feinstein wants to leave DC as one of our state's two senators than she will be the next governor but I haven't heard anymore talk of her leaving the senate [esp since Obama is president].

Villaraigosa also may run and could be the first Latino governor since the 1800's.

[FresnoFacts]

A lot of people seem to think the 2010 primary and general elections will be won in the swing areas of the Central Valley and Inland Empire. Population growth has put those areas into play more than anywhere else.

Consider, the most recent Field Polls.

Tony V polls well right now in the south but not the north part of the state. Gavin N polls well in Northern Calif but not the south. DiFi polls well in all areas of the state as does Jerry Brown. So 2 of the major candidates right now are just regional supported candidates.

The problem for the Democratic candidates is that the swing areas are Blue Dog areas, moderate and semi-conservative Democrats. So there is a need to adjust their message for the inland areas without turning off the liberal wing. Can they do it? That is what I think we should watch for.

Depending on how they estimate they slice the votes, any of the candidates will likely need to capture the Blue Dog voters in the primary.

[happ]

Originally Posted by FresnoFacts

A lot of people seem to think the 2010 primary and general elections will be won in the swing areas of the Central Valley and Inland Empire. Population growth has put those areas into play more than anywhere else.

Consider, the most recent Field Polls.

Tony V polls well right now in the south but not the north part of the state. Gavin N polls well in Northern Calif but not the south. DiFi polls well in all areas of the state as does Jerry Brown. So 2 of the major candidates right now are just regional supported candidates.

The problem for the Democratic candidates is that the swing areas are Blue Dog areas, moderate and semi-conservative Democrats. So there is a need to adjust their message for the inland areas without turning off the liberal wing. Can they do it? That is what I think we should watch for.

Depending on how they estimate they slice the votes, any of the candidates will likely need to capture the Blue Dog voters in the primary.

You make some good points. The Central Valley is alot more Democratic now than I can ever remember & most counties with a Republican majority are just barely GOP & strongly trending Democratic. The loss of all SoCal counties except Orange county to Democrats along with all the coastal counties of California [where the majority of Californians live] mean that any Republican candidate will have an extremely difficult time winning here.

Most Californian Republicans are like Republicans in places like Kansas & Texas & can never gain any traction in California.

[rah]

He's not going to win. I know I would never vote for him, unless all other candidates are even worse (and i'm for the most part as liberal as they come). I agree with some things he's done, such as gay marriage, and sure he's had some good ideas...but aside from gay marriage, he really hasn't gotten anything truly important done in SF. In his first year in office he said he would sign his own recall petition if the murder rate went up while he was mayor. It's been higher every single year he's been mayor, compared to before hand, including a 10 year high of at least 100 murders in 2007. He banged his advisor's/friend's wife. Yeah, it's their own business and all, but when you're an important public figure/leader you might want to show more discretion, because it's gonna look real bad for you (Also, good job on screwing your friend over, Gavin). He tapped into SF's public transportation funds to pay his own staff members. City management positions (with salaries of over 100k) in SF went up 20% while he was mayor, while at the same time, low paying city positions were cut. We now have over 2,000 city employees getting payed over 100k. He's gone on trips away from SF for close to the equivalent of an entire year (280 days, including 80 days in 2008, and 21 days so far this year, when SF's financial crisis is at it's worse). It's pretty obvious at this point that Newsom is much more concerned about his campaign for governor than running the city of SF....and if he can't run the city of SF effectively, how can he do so for the entire state? Not to mention all of the prop 8 supporters already oppose him. I seriously think Newsom is a little delusional...like he can't fathom the idea that people could actually dislike what he's doing.

[Curmudgeon]

Originally Posted by rah

He's not going to win. I know I would never vote for him, unless all other candidates are even worse (and i'm for the most part as liberal as they come). I agree with some things he's done, such as gay marriage, and sure he's had some good ideas...but aside from gay marriage, he really hasn't gotten anything truly important done in SF. In his first year in office he said he would sign his own recall petition if the murder rate went up while he was mayor. It's been higher every single year he's been mayor, compared to before hand, including a 10 year high of at least 100 murders in 2007. He banged his advisor's/friend's wife. Yeah, it's their own business and all, but when you're an important public figure/leader you might want to show more discretion, because it's gonna look real bad for you (Also, good job on screwing your friend over, Gavin). He tapped into SF's public transportation funds to pay his own staff members. City management positions (with salaries of over 100k) in SF went up 20% while he was mayor, while at the same time, low paying city positions were cut. We now have over 2,000 city employees getting payed over 100k. He's gone on trips away from SF for close to the equivalent of an entire year (280 days, including 80 days in 2008, and 21 days so far this year, when SF's financial crisis is at it's worse). It's pretty obvious at this point that Newsom is much more concerned about his campaign for governor than running the city of SF....and if he can't run the city of SF effectively, how can he do so for the entire state? Not to mention all of the prop 8 supporters already oppose him. I seriously think Newsom is a little delusional...like he can't fathom the idea that people could actually dislike what he's doing.

Pardon me if I laugh but what you posted could be said, with very little adjustment, about just about every politician in the state, and most at the federal level as well -- always looking out for themselves. Seventeen years of working with (not for) the Legislature taught me that.

[krudmonk]

He's alienated way too many people.

[buckeyenative01]

Originally Posted by Curmudgeon

Pardon me if I laugh but what you posted could be said, with very little adjustment, about just about every politician in the state, and most at the federal level as well -- always looking out for themselves. Seventeen years of working with (not for) the Legislature taught me that.

Seriously. There's a great deal of egomania and narcissism required to run for any public office.

[ImRandy]

Originally Posted by bayarea-girl

Does the guy have a shot?

Not a snowball's chance in hell.

[bayarea-girl]

ImRandy, love how you put things. A lot of media outlets in the bay are constantly talking about him running now a days and his absence from his job in SF. I agree with a lot of the other posters that CA needs some one more in the middle and Gavin is way over the top for the state.

[LexusNexus]

I wouldn't vote for him. He reminds of some sleazy Mercury car salesman in some cheesy area of LA with his slimy hair and irritating voice. He sounds like a freshman in college, young, naive, clueless no-talent who feels he's entitled. Seems just as immoral as Rudy Giuliani, but far more shallow and plastic.

No, California will forever cement its place as the Land of the Larks, with that court jester as Gov. Do I think he has a shot? Sure. Anything is possible here. If his opponent were a black man, he'd surely win.