Central Valley housing market (San Jose, Fresno: real estate, foreclosure, high crime)

[iluvcj]

My friend and I are having a disagreement about the central valley mainly Manteca. I say that the housing market there will continue to go down and prices will never be that high again. I mean $600,000 for a house in Stockton and Manteca, totally unrealistic. But anywho I will be relocating there in appx. 4 years after I finish school. I say the housing prices will be lower, my friend says that the housing prices will rebound by the time I decide to buy and become expensive again. Not only do they have a high foreclosure rate but the unemployment is high as well. Also all those people that bought there from the bay area can now buy in the bay area and dont have to commute anymore. Who's right me or her?

[Kibbiekat]

Obviously no one knows for sure. I think the market may rebound a bit, but I don't think it will get up as high as it was a few years ago. Take my opinion for what it's worth. I'm not a realtor and I don't live in the valley anymore.

[Adriatica]

They'll go up again, but not as high as they were at their peak.

[FresnoFacts]

The state today reported the 2008 population growth estimates. Manteca grew by 2.2% (1,600 people) during 2008. California only grew by 1.1% in 2008.

I doubt it will rise back to the peak prices for many years but don't go betting on prices to be lower than today in 4 years.

[City Boy]

Houses there are cheaper than the rest of CA for a reason and will remain cheaper. High crime, bad air, nothing to do and relatively far from the coast. Manteca is not too bad if you had to pick the two but overall the area is not desirable and I don't see houses going up much there.

[CA central coast]

Isn't the reason for the high prices Stockton's proximity to San Jose. People are commuting to work. A lot of places that suck up there are expensive. Like Salinas. Ever been to Greenfield? NO WAY should that place be expensive. Why? People have determined it an acceptable commute.

To fair to the area. Yes, Greenfield sucks. West of Greenfield? I'd live there in a second. The only bummer is see 100's of illegals swimming in the river. That's a big turn off. I forgot the name of the area and the river. Nice out there.

[AnnMarieCregPro]

Also all those people that bought there from the bay area can now buy in the bay area and dont have to commute anymore. Who's right me or her?

She makes a valid point, sorry. One thing I hear happening a lot is that people who bought when the market was at its peak are buying a second home now that prices have "bottomed out" and letting the first go into forclosure. You can get a lot more for your money right now. $500,000 would have got you a basic cookie cutter home in '06 now you can live in a custom built home on acerage for that ammount.

Home prices are slowly rising, but I think there is more to consider. The state of California placed several mortoriums on these forclosures they are out there, but not on the market. Supply and demand. The market never had a chance to find a true "bottom" there have been consecutive holds and it really is tying up our market. Buyers want to take advantage of President Obama's $8,000 credit for first time homebuyers if they buy before December. They want to make a competive offer and keep getting outbided, homes are selling for $5k-$30k more than they are listed for house prices are rising and as long as the state keeps controlling the supply, house prices should stay on the rise.

I'm sorry, there is no clear answer for the future of this market. I see it changing almost daily.

[Hawk J]

Originally Posted by CA central coast

Isn't the reason for the high prices Stockton's proximity to San Jose. People are commuting to work. A lot of places that suck up there are expensive. Like Salinas. Ever been to Greenfield? NO WAY should that place be expensive. Why? People have determined it an acceptable commute.

To fair to the area. Yes, Greenfield sucks. West of Greenfield? I'd live there in a second. The only bummer is see 100's of illegals swimming in the river. That's a big turn off. I forgot the name of the area and the river. Nice out there.

Lustrums ago we fished,camped around the Arroyo Seca, Millers, Freds camp, Government camp area. The Salinas River started at San Antonio Lake.


We also camped & fished at the San Luis Forebay, & the concrete canals over by Santa Nella.

Back then folks bought homes at a reasonable price in Los Banos & commuted to work in the San Jose area.

[user_id]

The central valley is probably pretty close to bottoming in price, but I think its pretty unlikely that the prices go up much in the next 4 years. California real estate is likely to remain weak in general for many years, the current small up swing in some areas is really just seasonal.

The prices will most likely return to their peak price, but only in nominal terms. But it should take a good 2 decades.

[FresnoFacts]

I believe markets like Tracy, Los Banos, Stockton, etc that boomed based on people commuting to jobs in the Bay Area (or other regions) will take a long time to recover unless the economy takes a sharp turn upward and housing becomes demanded quickly.

But a slow jobs recovery like I expect will allow the Bay Area to slowly match housing demand to job growth. That means outlying areas (Tracy, Los Banos, etc) where housing boomed due to commuters will take a longer time to recover.

The increase in transportation costs (gas prices) alone will make people think twice about buying in Central Valley areas and driving 2 hours each way to jobs in the future.

Markets like Bakersfield, Fresno, Visalia, etc. will probably fare better with a price recovery since their run up in prices was tied more to easy financing and less due to people looking for cheap commuting distance housing. Housing demand in those areas was supported more by local job markets, not commuters.