Time Magazine thought California was done in the 70s & again in the 90s (unemployment, place to live)

[4beanie]

Originally Posted by Oerdin

The OP was great. The doomers have always been there and they have always been wrong.

I hope Ca comes back stronger than ever. But taxes will more that likely never be less. The cost of living in better in other states. So more than likely the cycle will remain the same in Ca. Make more $ get less for it! By the way I love Ca and will probably alway have family here. I dislike the politics. We're always going to have the doomers who think things are worse than they are and those that look at Ca thru rose colored glasses and can't comprehend that things are as bad as they are.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

You seem to continue to ignore the fact that people in CA don't care that it costs less to live elsewhere - at least not as much as you do.

I don't know what you are trying to say here. Many people care and have left the state. For the last few years more people have been leaving the state than coming in. There are also a lot of people that would like to leave, just look at this forums for an example. Not all the people that care end up leaving because there are other issues. Some don't have the guts to move, some are too attached to their families, etc.

I really don't know many people that "don't care", especially in the younger crowd.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

They are happy where they live and don't necessarily feel the lower cost of living will make up for why they choose to stay. Maybe you've found a "lot" of middle class people who feel it's not worth it. But plenty of us have found a "lot" of middle class people who feel it is. So now what? If it doesn't suit you, you'll end up leaving. But don't try and speak for everyone, especially not the people I know.

When did I try to speak for everyone? I've been talking about cost of living and the state's economic problems. But there is a difference in older residents and the younger residents (either young natives or new migrates). The older residents had the chance to purchase a home when they were affordable, they also have a low property tax basis. For them, the cost of living is much different. This is why I think there is an extreme difference in opinion about the state. The older residents get to enjoy the state without paying the price that the younger residents have to, its California's delightful way of extracting wealth from the young for the benefit of the older residents.

It will also be interesting to see what the boomers do. So many of them seem to have so much mortgage debt that the only way of retiring is to sell their home and buy something cheap in another state.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

As for the current economic trends in CA, it's the same across the nation. Everyone tends to think the nation will rebound. Same goes for CA.

Firstly not everyone thinks the nation will "rebound". The end of the recession is not a "rebound" it simply means the economy is not bleeding anymore. Also, no its not the "same across the nation". Many of California's problems go beyond the recession and the problems in California are dramatically worse than in most other states.

California borrowed its way into oblivion, not all states did that.

[Ludachris]

Originally Posted by OC Investor2

The people might not care, but the businesses sure do. Corporations don't surf and they don't care about the lifestyle amenities in the state. Its all about the benjamins. The states economy will continue to hemmorage jobs as long as the hostile business enviroment remains and the costs of living & therefore cost of doing business remains so high.

That's true. But a lot of the start-up companies will still spring up out there because that's where the people with the capital choose to live. If you've ever driven through Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Woodside, Los Altos Hills, etc., you'd know what I mean. There is still a ton of money there and a lot of business owners who choose to set up shop there. Plus, the pool of talent still remains among the largest in the nation for high tech. It might be shrinking, but it's still extremely large. Call me crazy, I just don't see the high tech industry going the way of the American auto assembly plants.

To compare several hundred (or even thousand) different types of technology companies (mostly located in Silicon Valley) to a much smaller number of auto aseembly plants in the Michigan region is a bit of a stretch - especially with the way the Big 3 have been run the past 4 decades. They are completely different. Though the affects of them disappearing would likely be similar.

I do agree that CA has a lot of work to do to make the state more business friendly, and I believe they'll be forced to work that out sooner rather than later if they don't want to lose out on more tax revenue. I just don't see all the major industries in the state leaving before they get that worked out. We'll see though. Some seem to think it won't get worked out, others do. I think it's in the best interest of the entire nation, and everyone living in the nation, that CA get back on its feet. As the post above mine says, a state with that large of an economy has the power to affect the entire nation's economy. So here's to hoping it gets back on track before too long

[Ludachris]

Originally Posted by user_id

I don't know what you are trying to say here. Many people care and have left the state. For the last few years more people have been leaving the state than coming in.

I'm trying to get the point across that you make it sound like the entire middle class wants out of CA. All the middle class people I know actually do not share your sentiment. That's all. Sure, more people are leaving now. Look at the past 2 decades and you'll see how many people were pouring in at record rates. There's no way the state was going to sustain that type of growth and supply the amount of jobs needed for everyone. The population is likely just going back to a more normal level. Show me a state that sees the type of migration numbers CA does and doesn't occasionally shrink.

Originally Posted by user_id

I really don't know many people that "don't care", especially in the younger crowd.

I'm in my early 30's, so I don't know if you consider that young or not. I know young and old, mostly middle class. Most are bothered, but almost none care to move out of the state because of it.

Originally Posted by user_id

When did I try to speak for everyone? I've been talking about cost of living and the state's economic problems. But there is a difference in older residents and the younger residents (either young natives or new migrates). The older residents had the chance to purchase a home when they were affordable, they also have a low property tax basis. For them, the cost of living is much different. This is why I think there is an extreme difference in opinion about the state. The older residents get to enjoy the state without paying the price that the younger residents have to, its California's delightful way of extracting wealth from the young for the benefit of the older residents.

I know people in all types of situations, good and bad. I think my dad is in the worst situation, yet, I'd bet big money he'll never leave the state. Maybe he's just stubborn. But he loves it there. Even the younger people I know who are going through tough times still think it's the best place to live in the nation. You can't just say one age group likes it more than another. It's all about living where you want to live and taking the good with the bad.

Originally Posted by user_id

It will also be interesting to see what the boomers do. So many of them seem to have so much mortgage debt that the only way of retiring is to sell their home and buy something cheap in another state.

I'll agree with you there. Not sure what will happen with that group.

Originally Posted by user_id

Firstly not everyone thinks the nation will "rebound". The end of the recession is not a "rebound" it simply means the economy is not bleeding anymore. Also, no its not the "same across the nation". Many of California's problems go beyond the recession and the problems in California are dramatically worse than in most other states.

And in some instances, the problems are not as bad. We're in a state that is not as bad as most. But I still see a bunch of people on hard times. Work is hard to come by for many. CA has a lot more work to do though, I'll give you that.

All I'm trying to get across in my replies to you, is that you have a much more negative view on the state's future than most people I know. And you tend to reference the middle class as if the entire middle class wants to move out - and that is NOT the case. I know from personal relationships. You might know a lot of people that share your view, but I know plenty that don't. And I want people in this forum to understand this. Yes, CA is hurting. But it CAN start recovering in a few years. And it won't necessarily be a disaster until it does.

Plenty of people actually do still live in CA and are living pretty happy lives considering all the turmoil, as hard as that is to believe. I know some of them - they are mechanics, AT&T employees, high tech employees, business owners, etc. They don't all feel completely secure right now, but that is the general feeling most have across the nation. These are tough times. The sky isn't falling for everyone. And no matter how you paint the picture to highlight the negatives, a good number of people still see the positives.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

That's true. But a lot of the start-up companies will still spring up out there because that's where the people with the capital choose to live. If you've ever driven through Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Woodside, Los Altos Hills, etc., you'd know what I mean.

Venture capital is finding its way into other areas. You are stuck on how things are now, but its the future we are talking about. Money moves around easily. Also, start-ups tend to generate no tax revenue a more important question is whether the successful start-ups stay in the state or not.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

To compare several hundred (or even thousand) different types of technology companies (mostly located in Silicon Valley) to a much smaller number of auto aseembly plants in the Michigan region is a bit of a stretch

Auto assembly plants are just one part of it, its also the parts manufactures. Regardless, California has no comparison to the current rust-belt. Where you start to see similarities is when you move back in history, the rust-belt in the early 1900's was like California. The rust-belt starting to decline in the 1940's/50's.


Also, if the economic activity simply leaves California and goes else where then it will not drag the national economy. It will only drag the national economy if the activity simply vanishes.

[Ludachris]

Originally Posted by user_id

Venture capital is finding its way into other areas.

Sure it is. But how can you speculate in a recession that it won't stay in CA?

Originally Posted by user_id

You are stuck on how things are now, but its the future we are talking about. Money moves around easily. Also, start-ups tend to generate no tax revenue a more important question is whether the successful start-ups stay in the state or not.

If eBay, Yahoo, Google, and other power houses all pick up and leave, then we can start discussing Silicon Valley's dark future and I'll concede to your speculation. Same goes with the film making industry. If it all moves to Kansas for some reason, then I'd imagine SoCal will be hurting. I just don't see it being that drastic. And for the sake of the people I know and love, I certainly hope it doesn't turn out the way you envision.


We just have a different idea of what will happen. It's all speculation at this point. If things don't change at the state level, it won't improve. But I happen to think we'll see changes at some point. Like this thread points out, many economists have counted CA out in the past and they've been wrong. Who knows how things will actually turn out. All we can do is guess. Some people are taking this opportunity to invest in cheap CA housing, betting that it will turn around. Who knows...

[user_id]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

I'm trying to get the point across that you make it sound like the entire middle class wants out of CA.

I've never suggested that, there are many that don't. I've mentioned older residents, people that are attached by their friends/families, those that are simply ignorant, etc. But the entire middle-class does not need to leave for the state to get hammered. Once population decline (especially in the middle class) gains momentum it starts to cause a lot of problems. Again, just look at the rust-belt in the 40's/50's. Right now people are leaving slowly, but if it picks up and gains momentum the state is in very big trouble. You brush it off as "Well the area grew a lot, we can afford it". But you can't, the drain of people will cause a consistently reduced tax revenue year over year. Communities will start to collapse (homes don't vanish when people leave), etc.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

You can't just say one age group likes it more than another. It's all about living where you want to live and taking the good with the bad.

Umm...sure I can? Its pretty clear that California is better for some groups than others. You keep talking about Californians thinking this is the "best place", but unless they have traveled the country that means nothing. Its just a statement of ignorance.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

All I'm trying to get across in my replies to you, is that you have a much more negative view on the state's future than most people I know.

But so what? I'll say it again, 2~3 years ago trying to convince a property owner that real estate in California was going to crush was impossible. Residents, especially those that own property, are invested in the state both psychologically and financially. Of course, they don't think too negatively about it, but that is more a statement of their blind hope than anything else.

Your responses can be assumed up as "Not everyone wants to leave the state, your view is more negative than other people I know". To both I say "so what". Now, you can ignore California's problems and pretend as if its "business as usual" all you wish. I'm not the one that is going to be holding the bag, I have nothing invested in this state other than that I was born here (Where I was born is a complete gang filled crap hole now, btw).

Originally Posted by Ludachris

If eBay, Yahoo, Amazon, Google, and other power houses all pick up and leave, then we can start discussing Silicon Valley's dark future and I'll concede to your speculation.

Haha, well start conceding now! Amazon is headquartered in Seattle and has no business presence in California. eBay and Yahoo are dead fish, who cares what happens to them. Google has been diversifying out of California for the last 5 years or so, they have infrastructure all over the country now. The same can be said of all the "power houses", they are either gone or have not invested in new infrastructure in California in a long time.

But yes, there is no way to know for sure how things will end up. But one can look at the data and try to get a handle on what is most likely. Given that most residents are still in la-la land and have "oh they'll fix it" attitude, I would not put my money on any sort of recovery.

[Ludachris]

Originally Posted by user_id

I've never suggested that, there are many that don't. I've mentioned older residents, people that are attached by their friends/families, those that are simply ignorant, etc....

You keep talking about Californians thinking this is the "best place", but unless they have traveled the country that means nothing. Its just a statement of ignorance.

I think that's where I have a problem with your argument and will not reply to you anymore. You keep mentioning people being ignorant unless they are older or attached to their families since they don't agree with you that there are "better" places to live. I guess anyone who doesn't agree with you MUST be ignorant. All you're doing is passing judgment on those who simply don't share your view. People I know have gotten hit hard, but they're starting over and are getting back on track and don't plan to move out of CA.

Originally Posted by user_id

Now, you can ignore California's problems and pretend as if its "business as usual" all you wish.

Ahh yes, I can see exactly where you got the idea I am "ignoring" CA's problems and pretending it's "business as usual". I thought I did a good job at making the point that I understand the state is hurting. I even mentioned that multiple times... maybe you didn't read the entire reply? Or maybe since I don't think it's as bad off as you do and don't agree with every one of your points, I'm also ignorant.


You're welcome to insult people all you want but I choose not to continue in the debate if you're just going to call people (who don't think that CA is the worst place to live) ignorant.

Good day.

[Ludachris]

Originally Posted by user_id

But so what? I'll say it again, 2~3 years ago trying to convince a property owner that real estate in California was going to crush was impossible.

So what? If that's going to be your response to any argument made, what's the point of debating? I can reply the same way to anything you post just as easily.

Originally Posted by user_id

I'll say it again,Blah blah blah blah

So what?

Originally Posted by user_id

I'll say it again,Blah blah blah blah

So what?

Originally Posted by user_id

I'll say it again,Blah blah blah blah

So what?

How does that get a point across, except for making it appear that you won't even attempt to see a different point of view? Especially when you pass off anyone else who doesn't agree with you as ignorant.

Sorry, I said I was done. And now I'm done.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by Ludachris

You keep mentioning people being ignorant unless they are older or attached to their families since they don't agree with you that there are "better" places to live. I guess anyone who doesn't agree with you MUST be ignorant.

I have never stated that people that don't agree with me are ignorant, some may feel the costs are really worth it. I gave the example of older residents that have lower costs and people that don't want to leave their friends/families. That was not intended to exhaustive.

But ignorance plays a big part in this issue. Californians tend to think California is "the best" because that is the way it is presented to them and they have not traveled the country. In no other state have I experienced so many people that are convinced that where they live is the best despite not having traveled much outside of their region of the country (or world).

Originally Posted by Ludachris

I thought I did a good job at making the point that I understand the state is hurting. I even mentioned that multiple times... maybe you didn't read the entire reply?

I read your reply, you implied that the State was just experiencing the same thing as the rest of the nation. That it will rebound like the rest of the nation. But the state's problems are greater than the nation in general as can be seen by its unemployment rate being much greater than the national average, its state deficit being much greater than average (per capita), etc. California is not in the same boat as everyone else, suggesting that it is is just brushing off the real problems that exist in the state.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

You're welcome to insult people all you want but I choose not to continue in the debate if you're just going to call people (who don't think that CA is the worst place to live) ignorant.

This is hogwash, I never stated that people that don't think CA is the worst place to live are ignorant. After all, I don't think California is even close to being the "worst place to live". Rather, I said that many people (not all) think the state is the "best" and stay here because they are ignorant of what other parts of the country are like and can offer them.

Originally Posted by Ludachris

So what? If that's going to be your response to any argument made, what's the point of debating? I can reply the same way to anything you post just as easily.

Its not my response to any argument made, its my response to comments that don't even address anything at all. I've never stated that "the entire middle-class" wants to leave, not even close. You also keep mentioning that your friends have less negative views then me, what why in the world does that matter? I really have no idea.

Now, you are pretending that I'm calling people ignorant that don't agree with me. You are just building straw man. And to that I say "so what".