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Like I said before, most people that I know that stay here do so because of friends and family while recognizing that they would likely have a better life in another area...
If someone wants to stay because of their family, or they believe they just have to live by the coast, or whatever else, I don't care. Although, I think that often such people are not truly taking into consideration the costs vs benefit.
As I've heard time and again - a place is what you make of it. Everyone has their own idea of what quality of life means. Like I said before, most of the people I know understand that the cost of living is higher and that the state has its issues, but they feel they will be happier living there than anywhere else. They might get more for their money in another area, but they don't think that would make them happier. They simply love living in the state. Believe me, I tried using that argument when trying to lure people out here. You'd be surprised at how much CA weather played a role in our discussions.
Some people just see things differently than others. Not that they don't see the negatives, but they just happen to see a lot more positives that you don't find important.
Like I said before, most people that I know that stay here do so because of friends and family while recognizing that they would likely have a better life in another area. Personally, I moved back because mine and my wife's family are both largely in California (among other things), but it was a big mistake on almost every level.
If you are miserable then why stay? Obviously CA is not for everyone. I just don't buy all the gloom and doom forecasts you and others like you on this board proclaim on your way out. Its as simple as that. Why not go to Texas or Oklahoma or where ever and be done with it? You can think CA will become the next 'dust bowl.' But that means nothing to the majority of Californians. I'm done trying to explain to you the lack of any factual evidence to back up such a far feched theory. Enjoy your southern journey.
The reasoning is that it could decline more and still have more tech jobs than most other states. And even if it lost enough jobs to where it only had the 5th or 10th highest number of job openings in the tech industry, it would still be a desirable place to live in the eyes of many.
Yes it could "decline more", but it can't keep declining year over year and still be a major tech center. San Fransisco will likely always be desirable, but most of the surrounding areas will get killed if tech industry declines in the bay area.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludachris
The article I posted should give you an idea of how many tech jobs are still in the state. By listening to people here in this forum, you'd think that the tech industry in CA had disappeared. That's not the case.
I never stated it has already disappeared, I have rather explicitly been talking about the future. Although, it is true that the industry has diversified greatly out of the bay area.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludachris
I'd like to see where you got your info about job growth in the past decade. I would believe that real estate was responsible for a lot of the job growth, but not "almost all" of it.
California had low job growth the entire decade, I was not able to find the growth by industry numbers though. From my memory the growth was from real estate, health care and government. Real estate related industries being the biggest growth sector.
Everyone has their own idea of what quality of life means. Like I said before, most of the people I know understand that the cost of living is higher and that the state has its issues, but they feel they will be happier living there than anywhere else.
Have they gotten out a calculator and paper and actually calculated the cost difference? Have then spent time thinking about the cost vs benefit? Unlikely. I've talked with very few Californians that have actually thought about it in any sort of intelligent matter. Instead, I usually get comments that are just down right stupid when you talk about it.
The problem is people are not explicitly paying for the benefits that they perceive to be getting, as a result its hard to come to grips with the costs vs benefits. If you actually isolated the costs, I think far less people would be interested in staying. For example, if the cost of living in California was the same as Texas, but you got a bill for each day that had "good weather", you went to the beach, etc.
This is not to say that some won't find it worth it, but I don't think most middle-class families would come to that conclusion.
But the cost vs benefit is a bit different issue. If you can't find work the question does not matter to begin with. What is California's economy going to be like in another 10 year? This is the question that is most important to me personally and I don't think it can be answered positively.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnSurfer
If you are miserable then why stay? Obviously CA is not for everyone. I just don't buy all the gloom and doom forecasts you and others like you on this board proclaim on your way out. Its as simple as that. Why not go to Texas or Oklahoma or where ever and be done with it? You can think CA will become the next 'dust bowl.' But that means nothing to the majority of Californians. I'm done trying to explain to you the lack of any factual evidence to back up such a far feched theory. Enjoy your southern journey.
I never said I was miserable. Why not go? I will go, but moving takes time. There are a variety of options I'm considering at the moment, it makes the most sense to just stay here while I'm considering them. Southern Journey? I have no plans to move to the South.
Lack of factual evidence? Are you joking? There is quite a bit of evidence to indicate that the state is in big trouble:
- One of the highest unemployment rates in the union
- Weak job growth (the entire 00's have been weak, 10's are likely to be even weaker)
- The highest deficit of any state in the union, one that can only be solved by profoundly cutting services.
- A large separation from the haves and haves not. All major California cities lead the nation in wealth/income inequality, San Fransisco being the worst in the nation. Sorta ironic, for a state that is supposedly liberal.
...etc
I have no idea why you are mentioning the dust-bowl, when I did not mention it once. The dust-bowl was a farming crisis brought on by a massive drought. Although, drought may effect California's farming sectors. Without cheap water it may become too expensive to farm in California. The water issue also puts a cap on growth too, farming is likely to decline in California going forward. But still, not comparable to the dust-bowl. I have purposed that California may repeat an experience that many other states/regions have experienced in the past, most recently in the rust-belt. California is no longer a new/fresh state as a result starting to look the issues more established states face is more indicative of the future than thinking California is still young. I have never once suggest that such an outcome is guaranteed, only that its plausible. Your argument against this has essentially been "the weather and the coast", which is not exactly convincing.
Have they gotten out a calculator and paper and actually calculated the cost difference? Have then spent time thinking about the cost vs benefit? Unlikely. I've talked with very few Californians that have actually thought about it in any sort of intelligent matter. Instead, I usually get comments that are just down right stupid when you talk about it.
The problem is people are not explicitly paying for the benefits that they perceive to be getting, as a result its hard to come to grips with the costs vs benefits. If you actually isolated the costs, I think far less people would be interested in staying. For example, if the cost of living in California was the same as Texas, but you got a bill for each day that had "good weather", you went to the beach, etc.
This is not to say that some won't find it worth it, but I don't think most middle-class families would come to that conclusion.
But the cost vs benefit is a bit different issue. If you can't find work the question does not matter to begin with. What is California's economy going to be like in another 10 year? This is the question that is most important to me personally and I don't think it can be answered positively.
I never said I was miserable. Why not go? I will go, but moving takes time. There are a variety of options I'm considering at the moment, it makes the most sense to just stay here while I'm considering them. Southern Journey? I have no plans to move to the South.
Lack of factual evidence? Are you joking? There is quite a bit of evidence to indicate that the state is in big trouble:
- One of the highest unemployment rates in the union
- Weak job growth (the entire 00's have been weak, 10's are likely to be even weaker)
- The highest deficit of any state in the union, one that can only be solved by profoundly cutting services.
- A large separation from the haves and haves not. All major California cities lead the nation in wealth/income inequality, San Fransisco being the worst in the nation. Sorta ironic, for a state that is supposedly liberal.
...etc
I have no idea why you are mentioning the dust-bowl, when I did not mention it once. The dust-bowl was a farming crisis brought on by a massive drought. Although, drought may effect California's farming sectors. Without cheap water it may become too expensive to farm in California. The water issue also puts a cap on growth too, farming is likely to decline in California going forward. But still, not comparable to the dust-bowl. I have purposed that California may repeat an experience that many other states/regions have experienced in the past, most recently in the rust-belt. California is no longer a new/fresh state as a result starting to look the issues more established states face is more indicative of the future than thinking California is still young. I have never once suggest that such an outcome is guaranteed, only that its plausible. Your argument against this has essentially been "the weather and the coast", which is not exactly convincing.
We have spent months calculating the cost. We will be saving $8,000 per year just on prop taxes, income taxes, and car licenses. This does not take into account the interest we well recieve with the $400,000 difference in what we sell here and what we purchase there. At 5% I believe that's 20grand a year. So basically we make 28,000 a year not to live in Ca. The weather ain't that good
The reasoning is that it could decline more and still have more tech jobs than most other states. And even if it lost enough jobs to where it only had the 5th or 10th highest number of job openings in the tech industry, it would still be a desirable place to live in the eyes of many.
The article I posted should give you an idea of how many tech jobs are still in the state. By listening to people here in this forum, you'd think that the tech industry in CA had disappeared. That's not the case. It has declined some, just like every other industry nationwide, but it is still relatively healthy compared to other tech areas. And if Silicon Valley were to go away, I'd imagine that the entire tech industry would likely be hurting due to a major underlying issue.
I'd like to see where you got your info about job growth in the past decade. I would believe that real estate was responsible for a lot of the job growth, but not "almost all" of it. And if anyone has sources for info on how many jobs actually left CA for other states, that would be interesting as well. I see a lot of speculation on this, but haven't been able to find solid data. We all know the situation is bad, but it would be nice to separate the assumptions from the real numbers.
Specifically ... a firm I have been doing some work for did the following over the past ten years:
- Shut down a Bay Area factory, and added jobs in factories in two other states
- Laid off "office" and R&D people in California and hired in NH, MA, NC, GA, CO, TX and OR (not to mention overseas)
Roosevelt, I think you are right in that they compare with what it was and how it has changed. I've lived here since the 60s and seen a lot of change myself. But I would 'still' rather live here than anywhere else in the country for a number of reasons.
The thing I don't buy into is the gloom and doom chicken little forecasts they proclaim on their way out to Texas or Oklahoma or where ever. California is and will 'continue' to be a great state for millions of ppl both young and old. Although it has completely soured for some who are appropriety leaving to their better place where ever that may be. So let their exodus continue. It is a healthy thing for the state. Why stay somewhere if you are miserable? You just make everyone else miserable around you.
Derek
Yeah man, let the exodus continue, out with red necks, blue collar types, old fuddy duddy WASPs, DAR members, Sons of the Golden West ... and while we're at it, Republicans, mean and hurtful ranchers, cowboys, miners, loggers and all the rest of them! We need scientists and propeller heads with funny accents! Ah paradise arrives! /sarc
There is quite a bit of evidence to indicate that the state is in big trouble:
- One of the highest unemployment rates in the union
- Weak job growth (the entire 00's have been weak, 10's are likely to be even weaker)
- The highest deficit of any state in the union, one that can only be solved by profoundly cutting services.
- A large separation from the haves and haves not. All major California cities lead the nation in wealth/income inequality, San Fransisco being the worst in the nation. Sorta ironic, for a state that is supposedly liberal.
...etc
exactly convincing.
These are indicators of a 'recession.' No one is questioning that CA is in a recession. That is a given. What is in question is the Huge 'mental leap' from recession to 'Rust Belt' or whatever other wild and wacky gloom and doom predictions some here think up.
Ok, so lets entertain your idea of a West Coast 'Rust Belt' for a minute. What would that look like? Would most companies leave the state to places like <fill in the blank>? Would CA RE drop to 50 year lows? Would 1 out 8 Americans flee the state they now occupy? Would only the ultra rich and farm laborers be left? Would CA's primary industries dry up? Maybe Mexico would take back the state? If any of this occurs how long would it take to happen? 5 years, 10 years? 20 years? Do you see how rediculous this sounds? But maybe not to you?
Yeah man, let the exodus continue, out with red necks, blue collar types, old fuddy duddy WASPs, DAR members, Sons of the Golden West ... and while we're at it, Republicans, mean and hurtful ranchers, cowboys, miners, loggers and all the rest of them! We need scientists and propeller heads with funny accents! Ah paradise arrives! /sarc
No, but maybe all the ppl who think this in their own mind should go. Most gloom and doomers only see that. So what's the point in staying? I think for them it is best to leave. Why be miserable? Let the ppl who actually 'want' to live here and work to make the state a better place remain.
Last edited by MtnSurfer; 05-27-2009 at 07:26 PM..
No, but maybe all the ppl who think this in their own mind should go. Most gloom and doomers only see that. So what's the point in staying? I think for them it is best to leave. Why be miserable? Let the ppl who actually 'want' to live and work to make the state a better place remain?
That is not exactly accurate nor a good portrayal of many of those of us who are looking elsewhere. I spent 25 years working on the inside of state government and politics trying to make this state the place it could be. I know it could. It was not all that many years ago.
How many more years should I continue trying. For that matter, being in my 60s, how many years do you reckon I have left to wait? After being ignored by successive administrations and legislatures, unless it suited THEM, and even though they paid me for my policy expertise, reality dawned (guess I'm a slow study) and I started looking elsewhere which is just about ABC -- Anywhere But California! My wife did the same for 20 years. Each of us can probably count on the fingers of one hand just how often our hard work and persistence significally improved the lives of Californians. Those times feel good. The state no longer does to us.
We make no apologies for wanting to leave, nor should we.
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