Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I hear so many critics here in Las Vegas who blame our unemployment situation on the fact that we've done too little to diversify our economy, being too dependent on gaming.
Reading your recent unemployment figures in a diversified California economy I should hope should help silence the critics here if they should read these statistics.
The number could also be interpreted that Las Vegas IS too dependent on one part of the economy.
Since California is in bad shape its residents are not travelling to and spending money in Las Vegas.
But my own interpretation is that Las Vegas got too dependent upon only two industries: Gaming and Housing growth. Hospitality and construction jobs seemed to be what disappeared most over there.
People with A+ credit are still having a hard time getting loans.
Your credit just one part of your application. Lending is all about the "three C's", namely credit, capacity, and collateral. You can have excellent credit, but if your income can't afford the mortgage you are not getting it.
Your links don't point to anything. Show me a story of someone with decent credit, a down payment getting denied on a mortgage that is 3.5 or less than their annual income.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bayarea-girl
Again, new jobs are being added but not at a rate that will hold true for a stabilizing economy. For us to be out of this recession we need to be creating new jobs of 150K to 180K per month. We are not doing so.
Sorry, but this is just wrong. The economy is stabilizing as we speak and less than 150k jobs are being created a month. To say it again, you can have a stabilized economy and an increasing unemployment rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bayarea-girl
I might have gotten something mixed up but thought you said we are out of the recession and that things are improving? I don't see the improvements and believe we will be in this recession/depression until sometime next year into 2011.
I said that the recession is most likely over and that the economy is stabilizing. You keep interpreting that as suggesting that the unemployment rate is going to improve, but its not the same at all. If you don't see the improvements you are not looking at the actual data, the majority of leading indicators have stabilized or are recovering.
Basing your view of the general economy, or even the economy of California on what is happening in your area does not make much sense. The country as a whole can improve while the bay area becomes a cesspool.
Having good credit doesn't get you a loan any more. This has been publicized in the media for some time now. The links don't point to anything that you don't want to recognize, that being the truth.
Again, we are not adding 150K jobs per month we aren't, I've already posted that fact (if so prove it). So while we are not adding the jobs we are also having a high number of unemployment. Wonder if those jobs we are adding are kept here in the US? You have not posted anything but your comments to back up the fact that we aren't adding the number of jobs to get us out of the recession/depression, so I think you are wrong. When people have jobs they tend to spend more. Companies make more to keep up with demand. Companies are not making more, wonder how come?
Ok, you say the economy is "most likely over and the economy is stabilizing". Again, I disagree with you. The slowing rate of unemployment is a contributing factor that will get us out of this recession/depression. That is one of the factors amongst others that I have already wrote about. I'm sorry but no I don't see the improvements and the majority of leading indicators that say we are stable or are recovering. You haven't provided any of these so called indicators. Again, if you have a job you may not feel it. I have a job and I feel it because now that other people have been laid off on my job I have to pick up their slack while my jobs is still a question mark. It is again noticeable to me during rush hour traffic and in the city that I work in. I travel quit a bit for work so I also see it in other places as well. When the food banks are running out of food in a very properous side of town, no I don't see things getting better.
Thought this article was intersting because it mentions the following: 4 Key Recession Indicators Rising unemployment Watching the weekly unemployment claim reports is quite important. If people lose their jobs, they won't be able to spend money, leading to suffering businesses and a chain of further problems. And when companies release workers, it suggests that business is slowing or expected to slow, and that not as many employees are needed or are affordable.
There are too many red flags that come up when people talk about the recession is over and one of the red flags has to do with unemployment.
Panel members were in general agreement concerning positive GDP growth going forward but the speakers also highlighted a number of “red flags” that could alter the shape of the current economic recovery. Speakers John Groesbeck, Westminster College, and Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insights, specifically cited concerns over the size of household debt, the still-rising unemployment rate, the temporary nature of restocking of depleted inventories, on-going banking failures, relatively high crude oil prices, and the negative influence of non-residential construction as potential drags on the economy. (You can read more of this article by clicking on the link below) Recession is over but economic indicators remain mixed - Commodities Update | Blog on Purchasing
When Will the Recession Be Over For Your Business? (http://ezinearticles.com/?id=1861341 - broken link) The Recession Is Over - Forbes.com
The bay area can hold its own to many states economically speaking. I was not just factoring in the bay area though in my perception of where we are at in terms of the economy. Unemployment is high everywhere. Again, I've been traveling and know people all over & everybody is still hurting. Please don't make assumptions that I am only considering CA and or the bay area for my rationale. But if things are bad here they are much worse in other places (of course there are exceptions). When I look at SF and see that there is little to no traffic and the downtown I can find parking and retail spaces are vacant that at one time didn't even advertise, and or food banks are running out of food, it is clear as day to me that we are far from where we use to be. In the bay we have already suffered and recovered from the dot.com bust and things were bad then and are doubly bad now. I am optimistic that we will recover but I like to be realistic and just can't fool myself into believing that all is well even though I have a job today.
Having good credit doesn't get you a loan any more. This has been publicized in the media for some time now.
Good credit alone SHOULD NOT get you a loan! The only period in time where that occurred in the mortgage industry was between 2003~2007 and it resulted in the meltdown we are seeing today! Because its idiotic lending. Loans need to be based on credit, capacity and collateral (in the case of secured loans).
And in terms of the links, there was nothing to see. I have no idea what information you were trying to link to.
With everything else you are posting, you are again having trouble understanding how the unemployment rate can keep increasing while the recession can end. There is nothing inconsistent here, there is no "red flag". Its known as a "jobless recovery" and has happened a number of times in the past. There is nothing to debate here.
Lastly, if you don't see that the majority of leading indicators have stabilized then you are not looking. This is just a matter of fact, there is again no debate. Simply take a look at the index of leading indicators, you'll find that it is starting to recover. Even the coincident index is stabilizing now!!
Good credit is a factor in getting a loan. Didn't say it should be or is the only thing that entitles one to a home loan. It is a fact that it has gotten harder and harder to get mortgage loans.
It is just not me who is having a problem with the unemployment rate being so high and correlating it to the economy. Actually from all of the postings I provided in my previous replies to you the articles recognize the parallels between the two. We don't have to agree on this and it is obvious we won't.
Did you catch the evening news last night? Many people are questioning these so called indicators that the economy is in recovery mode. Especially since unemployment has risen to 9.8% and over 15 million people are unemployed. Companies are not hiring and people are staying unemployed for longer periods of time which is causing our government to either have a third stimulus and or extend unemployment benefits for a third time. Over 750K jobs are expected to be lost within the next 6 months (think the # will be higher).
I'm sorry and don't mean to offend you and respect your point of view but what you are saying is what people were and are saying about housing. For the last 2 years until now people are telling us we should buy now the market is better but in reality we see that homes are still over priced and will come down more. The housing market has not recovered. There will be another waive of foreclosures (and banks will continue to close as a result). It is the same thing with this so called recovery. It just isn't happening. When you have high rates of unemployed people, they don't spend, and companies don't produce as much, etc.
Since our communication I've been looking for these so called indicators but they are as puzzling to me as they are to the people who are jobless and those in the white house. Finally, and once again for this economy to be turning the corner we have to have new jobs of 150K to 180K (since the new unemployment number have come out those figures are higher) per month be created, this has not happened. This is another fact you have dismissed. When jobs are created at a steady pace at about 150K-180K I could agree with you that we are coming out of this recession/depression, having less than 50K jobs being created per month is not going to cut it.
It is a fact that it has gotten harder and
harder to get mortgage loans.
It has gotten harder vs a few years ago, but speaking about this being a problem misses the point entirely. We are in this mess because of insane lending practices that made no sense! Compared to 10 years ago mortgages are actually easier to get today. The mortgage market is starting to return to normal, which is to say mortgages are not given out like candy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bayarea-girl
I'm sorry and don't mean to offend you and respect your point of view but what you are saying is what people were and are saying about housing.
No, what I'm saying are simple facts about economics. To say it once again, you can have a growing unemployment rate while the economy is starting to recover.
But you can believe whatever makes you happy, I've already tried to explain how this can occur.
We are in this mess because of greedy banks that have yet to be regulated.
I don't think you know any simple facts about economics and you have not explained and or provided any information that the economy is starting to recover with high unemployment rates. Sure corporations will be making money during these difficult times but I'm an American (not a corporation or a bank) and would like to be treated with the same level of importance. Also, when companies drop/layoff its most expensive cost and hire pt employees where they don't have to pay them benefits or take business to other countries where they can have the same level of employee for less, guess what that is how they can realize more profits.
Logically speaking, if jobs continue to be lost at high levels it is a result of a downsizing economy. If I look at the economics I (we) should all be very concerned (Alarmed & Outraged) that we consume more than we are producing and as a nation the reality is that we are in debt. We borrow against debts and don't save (we have a trade deficit which is about 700 billion a year and for instance we export to China 33 billion while we import 300+ billion a year from them & then we turn around and borrow from them too). Once we can correct some of this behavior I'll believe we our moving into a more stable and correct recession recovery direction. We are missing opportunities to produce in the USA (while we can grow our own food here we still import a lot of it). Not to mention we are in two very expensive wars, one of which I believe will benefit us and the other is just to save face.
Buffett believes that, on a whole, trade is a good thing for America, but that over the long term, running “large-and-persistent” trade imbalances will be problematic for the United States and that gloomy day my friend is upon us.
Economic issues | The US Cannot Keep Consuming More Than It Produces - Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks (http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-us-cannot-keep-consuming-more-than-it-produces/9034 - broken link) Unemployment rate edges up to 9.8%
Meltdown 101: Unemployment by the numbers (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/10/02/financial/f133640D40.DTL - broken link)
Ecofficiency (http://www.ecofficiency.org/philosophy.html - broken link)
Yes we can all believe what we want to but we have to be realistic at the end of the day.
Did anyone see the Joy Bahar show last night? She had Maxine Waters on there and Congresswoman Waters believes that unemployment will reach 50-60% in some places.
Waters is a Communist and wants it to reach that, so there will be a revolution.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
