Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Lower! Lower! My student loans are in CAD, so lower!
I must check the exchange rate on xe.com about 20 times a day. These last few days have been giving me a sinking feeling, but the dollar has lost about 80 basis points since yesterday, so I'm breathing a bit lighter. I *should* have sent money back when it was 74.50 a week and a half ago.
Seriously though, it's impossible to say. For some fun, search for Canadian Dollar outlook and you'll get a wide variety of views. This time last year nobody thought it would go to 74 cents, so in a year it could end up back in the mid 80s, low 90s (if oil really recovers), or in the 60s. Back in May when the dollar was in the mid 80s, the big banks were predicting a bottom at 81 cents. That obviously didn't happen. So nobody really knows, kind of like with the stock market.
I would bet that, should a minority government be elected on the 19th, the dollar will drop.
Lower! Lower! My student loans are in CAD, so lower!
I must check the exchange rate on xe.com about 20 times a day. These last few days have been giving me a sinking feeling, but the dollar has lost about 80 basis points since yesterday, so I'm breathing a bit lighter. I *should* have sent money back when it was 74.50 a week and a half ago.
Seriously though, it's impossible to say. For some fun, search for Canadian Dollar outlook and you'll get a wide variety of views. This time last year nobody thought it would go to 74 cents, so in a year it could end up back in the mid 80s, low 90s (if oil really recovers), or in the 60s. Back in May when the dollar was in the mid 80s, the big banks were predicting a bottom at 81 cents. That obviously didn't happen. So nobody really knows, kind of like with the stock market.
I would bet that, should a minority government be elected on the 19th, the dollar will drop.
Not as much as if either of the other two get a majority.
Not as much as if either of the other two get a majority.
Oh brother! Don't even joke about a thing like that. All those promises and so little tax base to pay for them spread over the long suffering middle class. Gads.
Oh brother! Don't even joke about a thing like that. All those promises and so little tax base to pay for them spread over the long suffering middle class. Gads.
As much as I personally don't want it. Part of me wants to say f-it, let the NDP in. Once they're in power, one election cycle and it would be Conservative for the next generation.
That being said, I've been disenfranchised, and living in Texas I'm in the personal hell of the other extreme.
Oh brother! Don't even joke about a thing like that. All those promises and so little tax base to pay for them spread over the long suffering middle class. Gads.
Yeah. Hopefully the Conservatives won't get a chance to tack another 32% onto the federal debt.
I think it's more likely for CAD to drop to $0.50 US than back to parity.
The twin pillars of Canadian economic growth, high commodity prices and a gigantic property bubble, are beginning to unravel. Take out those two factors and the Canadian economy has been hollowed out and extremely uncompetitive.
I think it's more likely for CAD to drop to $0.50 US than back to parity.
The twin pillars of Canadian economic growth, high commodity prices and a gigantic property bubble, are beginning to unravel. Take out those two factors and the Canadian economy has been hollowed out and extremely uncompetitive.
Nobody in Canada seems to be able to address this. A falling Canadian dollar - which is precipitated by productivity numbers like this - only masks low productivity. With the dollar at 70 some cents, there is little impetus to improve productivity, either.
Nobody in Canada seems to be able to address this. A falling Canadian dollar - which is precipitated by productivity numbers like this - only masks low productivity. With the dollar at 70 some cents, there is little impetus to improve productivity, either.
According to the conference board, Canadian productivity in constant PPP dollars per hour grew from $44.80 per hour in 2000 to $51.17 in 2014, a growth rate of less than 1% per year, while the USA grew from $52.86 to $66.47, equal a little under 2% per year, half the rate of the US.
At the same time, the Canadian dollar surged by about 60%, and the rate of inflation was at least equal to and likely greater than that of the US, eventually leading to a giant gap in unit labor costs, basically doubling vs the US from 2001 to 2011... It's no wonder manufacturing's share of GDP declined in that same period from 18% to under 10% now. (The US only dropped from about 15% to 12% over that same period).
It also doesn't help that Canadian tar sand oil is basically the most expensive type of oil extraction in North America.
Canada is going to have a rough next few years, rougher than the US 2008-2011, and the early 90s/late 80s property bubble bust in Canada. Canada will claw back some productivity by cutting the fat (increasing unemployment, and the rest will have to equal out via currency swings. PPP parity exchange for the Canadian dollar is about $0.80 US, but Canada without high oil prices will be competing with the lower cost Midwest and US south where PPP levels are about 85-90% the US average, couple in a likely increase in relative inflation from a more spend and borrow-prone labour government and I see a Canadian dollar of $0.5XX a very likely possibility.
According to the conference board, Canadian productivity in constant PPP dollars per hour grew from $44.80 per hour in 2000 to $51.17 in 2014, a growth rate of less than 1% per year, while the USA grew from $52.86 to $66.47, equal a little under 2% per year, half the rate of the US.
At the same time, the Canadian dollar surged by about 60%, and the rate of inflation was at least equal to and likely greater than that of the US, eventually leading to a giant gap in unit labor costs, basically doubling vs the US from 2001 to 2011... It's no wonder manufacturing's share of GDP declined in that same period from 18% to under 10% now. (The US only dropped from about 15% to 12% over that same period).
It also doesn't help that Canadian tar sand oil is basically the most expensive type of oil extraction in North America.
Canada is going to have a rough next few years, rougher than the US 2008-2011, and the early 90s/late 80s property bubble bust in Canada. Canada will claw back some productivity by cutting the fat (increasing unemployment, and the rest will have to equal out via currency swings. PPP parity exchange for the Canadian dollar is about $0.80 US, but Canada without high oil prices will be competing with the lower cost Midwest and US south where PPP levels are about 85-90% the US average, couple in a likely increase in relative inflation from a more spend and borrow-prone labour government and I see a Canadian dollar of $0.5XX a very likely possibility.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
