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Pulled this out, because it may be a little hard to interpret…
EXPLANATORY NOTES
1. The U.S. Market Risk Index score translates to a
percentage that predicts the probability that house
prices will be lower in two years. For example, a Risk
Index score of 100 means there is a 100 percent
chance that the Loan Performance All Transactions
House Price Index for that MSA will be lower two
years from the date of the data.
10 Most Stable of the 50 Largest MSAs MSA / Market Risk Index Score
Dallas-Plano- Irving; TX <1
Fort Worth- Arlington; TX <1
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown; TX <1
Pittsburgh; PA <1
San Antonio; TX 1.0
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord; NC-SC 2.2
Columbus; OH 2.8
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor; OH 3.4
Indianapolis-Carmel; IN 3.9
Denver-Aurora; CO 4.1
This is a fascinating report! I mean the full report link... wow
I think it's a little misleading and confusing unless you delve into it deeper - the map is very interesting to look at. Out of all the MSAs (not just the 50 largest), the #1 in affordability rank is in NC. Pretty cool.
Fayetteville NC Minimal 179.71
Canton-Massillon OH Minimal 166.03
Cheyenne WY Minimal 163.65
Lawton OK Minimal 163.49
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH Minimal 156.48
Springfield IL Minimal 152.89
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood TX Minimal 151.34
Fargo ND-MN Minimal 150.97
Rochester NY Minimal 148.32
Tulsa OK Minimal 147.72
Yippie...I'm sure this prediction will make everyone feel warm and cuddly.....Hey, if you throw enough predictions on a wall, some are gonna stick, right?
I wonder if they nailed the prediction before '08 that sales YOY would be down 30%+?.......LOL
I wonder if they nailed the prediction before '08 that sales YOY would be down 30%+?.......LOL
Who couldn't have predicted that?
I know in my market, sales declined 19% in 2008 compared to 2007. That is after the following:
2007 compared to 2006: -1.6%
2006 compared to 2005: +9.4%
2005 compared to 2004: +15%
2004 compared to 2003: +14.9%
Did people really expect this growth to last forever? Did the people in California really expect their homes to continue appreciating by the levels they did?
Who didn't predict that sales would decline? Who can't predict that prices and sales will skyrocket at some point in the future, and then decline again?
Ummm, no realtors I know predicted a 30% decline YOY in sales at the start of 2008 for Charlotte. No one came even close....
You must know a lot of Realtors who are blind to market conditions.
First of all, no one could have predicted when it was going to happen, but anyone who doubted the probability of it happening is just dumb.
What goes up, must come down.
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