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Old 05-18-2016, 08:42 PM
 
69 posts, read 134,939 times
Reputation: 50

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I know that C-ville's property values are shockingly high. What I would like to know is historically are they stable? I know no one can predict the future but I am trying to get a grasp on the potential volatility. I would hate to buy at $250k house only to find in 3 years time it sitting at $180 or so simply because of some inherent gyration in the market.
As I understand it the powers that be [city elders] are loathe to allow much development in C-ville, thus keeping inventory low. I am assuming this has something to do with the valuations. If I am wrong here I would like to know what seems to be keeping values high and how artificial are those means that have inflated values. Thank you,
Charles and Katie
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Old 05-19-2016, 09:11 PM
 
18 posts, read 19,990 times
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It has nothing to do with a conspiracy to keep values high and everything to do with Charlottesville always despising development and being full of NIMBYs. The population density in Charlottesville is already very high for the type of city that it is (small anchor town that isn't a suburb of a larger area). Given Virginia's archaic annexation laws, Charlottesville cannot expand and almost all of the property has been built out for decades (hence the growth of Albemarle County). Population density has been increasing, but that's mostly because of large condo/townhome complexes replacing formerly dilapidated ghetto single family homes that were basically on the verge of collapse anyways.

Yes, the values are too high, but if you watch the market you'll see things sit for years without selling. People have convinced themselves that something is worth X and when it never sells at X, they're just as likely to just give up rather than lowering the price.

I live in the DC/Nova area currently so I understand rising property values, and all you need to do is look at transfer and sales history to understand that the majority of homes in charlottesville are unrealistically priced and will simply not appreciate like people "feel" they should.

Your best bet is to stalk a property, wait for the owner to remove and relist it for the 9th time with a new agent at a $500 discount and then offer a realistic price.

Keep in mind that half of the "for sale" properties are vacant and were owned by the seller's parents prior to their death of old age, so these people don't need to sell like lots of people do, and many have pie in the sky expectations of wealth to split amongst their siblings that simply won't ever happen.

Last edited by CityResearcher; 05-19-2016 at 09:27 PM..
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Old 05-19-2016, 10:36 PM
 
69 posts, read 134,939 times
Reputation: 50
Thanks for the detailed reply, I will certainly take your advice to heart. I am here in Dallas and property is doing very well at the moment, a true market, in my opinion.
What gets me with C-ville is the lack of a true 'middle class' of housing or a rainbow of prices based on location and condition. As I said, I don't mind if there isn't a great deal of appreciation of price [always welcome of course] and we don't want to overpay either, but I would hate a lack of stability.
I was also a tad shocked at the condition of many of the properties. Of course I was only looking at houses under 250k, but still, you would think if your 1000 sq ft 2 br 1 ba house is 'valued' at $250k you would put a little maintenance into the thing to protect your asset.
Anyway thanks again, it is looking more and more like we are going to leap into the C-ville market as my wife is being offered a good job there. I know people say to rent before buying, and that is not a bad idea but the rental market seems even more dear than the for sale market, so we will have a lot to discuss.
C
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Old 05-20-2016, 08:06 AM
 
18 posts, read 19,990 times
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There is a true middle class in charlottesville/albemarle, but unless they've lived there for a long time or in multi-generational housing, they live on the outskirts and surrounding counties. Even though it's small, think of Charlottesville as a large city and treat the surrounding communities as suburbs. All large cities are expensive in their core. The inner ring of suburbs (albemarle) are also expensive, but you get larger houses and more land. It isn't until you're at 1.5+ hours of commuting do you start to find affordable housing where all of the blue collar and tradespeople living. The good news is, since Charlottesville is so small, that 1.5+ hours of commuting to find affordable housing is closer to 30+ minutes. If you're looking for bang for your buck, consider the Valley over 64 West (Waynebsoro, augusta county, staunton), east on 64 (Lake Monticello, Palmyra, Fluvanna County, Louisa County). You can also look up 29 North into Greene or Madison counties, but the traffic on 29 would make commuting miserable.

I wouldn't also call the Cville market unstable.. just unrealistically optimistic. , but sustained in a slow march upwards. But it's been that way for 3 decades. The last time 250K got you a nice house in Charlottesville proper or Albemarle was the 80s. You can use sites like Zillow to see recently sold houses and then expand their pricing history to compare with what they sold for. You'll find that many of the places listed at 500+ usually ended up going for significantly less than what their owners thought they were worth. They usually end up selling close to assessment, but they're listed at assessment + 25% for some reason. I'm not sure how those figures change when you bring it down to 200-250K. The problem with the sub 250K market is that the only houses left for that much were largely rundown and in poor neighborhoods. Gentrification has been in full swing in Cville for the last 20 years and has finally started to hit the last bits of crappy neighborhoods, so developers are buying up really crappy houses just for their lots and then knocking them down.

Coming from Texas, you're going to be shocked about lots of the pricing and taxing realities of Virginia.If you think Charlottesville is bad, take a gander up north into the Virginia DC suburbs for some real sticker shock.
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Old 09-24-2018, 03:58 PM
 
7 posts, read 6,096 times
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Thanks, CResearcher, for the insight. My wife and I have been thinking that CVille might be a great spot for us to relocate and downsize in retirement (from suburban Detroit area), so we've spent three weeks renting here in a short "test drive". We are staying in the Belmont neighborhood (an "up and coming" place to be -- and it has a lot going for it--15 minute walk to downtown, new and very good restaurants and bars right in the residential district, etc.) The cost of housing is extremely disappointing and the comments above (Charles1169) about the condition of the properties are SPOT ON! On any block with 8 3+ bedroom homes, 2 of them are in very nice shape (assessed at $475-$500k), 4 of them are decent but with stuff seriously in need of repair and not well kept up ($350-$400k), and 2 homes that are totally unkept, damaged, perhaps holes through the walls into upstairs rooms, stuff/junk piled up on the front porch ("bargains" at $250k!)

Charlottesville's many great aspects makes us think that, as opposed to simply giving up, perhaps the outskirts are where we should focus our attention.
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