The southern suburbs in the next 10-20 years. (Chicago, Joliet: crime rate, homes)

[urza216]

Originally Posted by tjake

Throw in the high price of gas with the long commuting to those rural suburban areas.

One last comment -

This isn't true at if they're commuting to Joliet (population 140,000+). All of those towns you menetioned are just outside Joliet..

And yes, there are in fact, a bunch of good jobs in Joliet - both white collar and blue collar.

[meatpuff]

One of the things that is telling is how the "shape" of the suburbs has evolved. Basically, the south suburbs were at almost their full southern extent in 1970.

Way back in 1970, anchor towns like Calumet City, Chicago Heights, Homewood and Harvey were fully built out. You look at what was kind of the southern extent of suburbia, and Crete was known as the last built-up town on your way south out of Chicagoland; or Park Forest if you were going along Cicero. These are the core south suburbs. Meanwhile, you look west of Cicero, and development reached down only as far as the Palos area. That's like 127th Street. Towns along Cicero Avenue, Midlothian and Oak Forest, were largely built up. But west of there was farms. Tinley and Orland? Tinley had a quaint downtown strip along Oak Park Ave. All the rest was pretty much farms.

It's remarkable. For all you read about Chicagoland being more centered on its main city than most metro areas (Dallas Metroplex anyone?), development up to 1970 shot in a straight line down Halsted St and the IC railroad, and didn't stop until it got to Will County. Today, Steger has about the same population as it did in 1970, at a 35 miles drive from Chicago. Meanwhile, Crestwood was still half-built in 1970, at only 22 miles from the Loop. Orland was hardly built at all, even though Sandburg High School is only 24 miles from the Loop.

What happened in the 43 years since? Everyone knows about Tinley and Orland and most know about the population explosions in Mokena, Frankfort, and even far out places like New Lenox, Manhattan and far western Joliet. Chicago sprawled so much here; but what growth has happened in the old south suburbs? Rather little. There has been scattered filling in of newer housing around the twin trunks of the IC and Halsted, in places like Midlothian, Lynwood, Lansing, South Holland and Matteson. Richton Park built up, extending the sprawl another mile or so past Park Forest. They built a few subdivisions in Beecher and some industrial parks and things in Monee; but Crete and Richton Park are still completely surrounded by miles of farms on the south. In 43 years, the boundary of the south suburbs has hardly moved.

I think this speaks to how much the development of the south suburbs in the first place was driven by the jobs engines of the day: industry in Chicago Heights, the south side of the city, Riverdale and Blue Island, and the famous heavy industry on the lakeshore in Chicago and NW Indiana. That was the reason for the south suburbs to be created. When that died, development pressure was again dictated by convenience of travel to the Loop, and later to expressway job corridors (e.g. I-55, I-294, I-88).

It took jobs to build the south suburbs in the first place, and I think it will take an influx of jobs to make them grow again. There are jobs in the Loop, and south suburban towns that have reasons for the middle class to live there will do fine. But Loop workers can live almost anywhere, and the south suburbs have to compete with the entire region for these folks now. Those that have nothing, or nothing special to offer will decline. Unfortunately, momentum is not on their side either.

[tjake]

There really hasn't been much outward expansion in the far northern suburbs in the past few decades either. Just more fill in of the nicer locations. It's just not feasible for most upwardly mobile young professionals to move more than 40 miles from the city in any direction. Waukegan is realistically as far as any younger professional wants to live north of chicago. And the foreclosure situation in far north suburban Waukegan is at epidemic proportions. If that is any indicator of the desirability of living that far out north. There are currently more foreclosures for sale on the market in Waukegan then there are non distressed properties for sale.

Crete is as far south as I can realistically see any middle class expansion happening south of the city. That is if we are talking about young professional families in there 30's or early 40's relocating to the suburbs that still need to drive into the city for business and leisure on a regular basis. In my opinion far suburban sprawl suburbs have noticeably lost a lot popularity among the younger generation to begin with. They seem to be less interested in moving away from urban populated neighborhoods. And are actually choosing to establish roots in high amenity urban neighborhoods like wicker park and the south loop, closer to the action. And far away from the declining suburban sprawl suburbs. I see this in young professional singles and couples with kids of all races. Multicultural neighborhoods in the city continue to gain popularity among all races of young professionals. Even in the housing crisis most of the high amenity city neighborhoods have continued to expand the urban gentrification footprint and housing values have faired much better thanin most further out suburbs. Have you seen wicker park or the south loop lately? The newer generation could care less about what is the next up and coming suburban sprawl destination for white flighters in there parents generation. And have no interest in living that far away from the conveniences and amenities of the city. Most upwardly mobile younger families of all races are choosing to do the exact opposite of what there parents did.

[urza216]

Joliet is contantly growing and expanding.

[tjake]

Originally Posted by urza216

Joliet is contantly growing and expanding.

Joliet is a decent outpost city. But is more working class than middle class professionals.

[urza216]

Originally Posted by tjake

Joliet is a decent outpost city. But is more working class than middle class professionals.

There are a number of office buildings in Joliet. For instance, both Trinity Services and Cornerstone Services are based out of Joliet. So is Nu Mark Credit Union. Joliet is white collar too.

[pvande55]

Originally Posted by urza216

Well, I, for one, would never want to LIVE in Orland!

La Grange is a rough road that really needs to be resurfaced. It makes me concerned for my struts and strut mounts. But I can't imagine what a nightmare it would be if that road was ever actually closed for construction..

Of course, La Grange Rd is a US route, under the jurisdiction of IDOT. It will be rebuilt eventually, with the closed lanes. It is such a major route I doubt they will close it off completely, a la Wacker Drive.

[tjake]

Originally Posted by urza216

There are a number of office buildings in Joliet. For instance, both Trinity Services and Cornerstone Services are based out of Joliet. So is Nu Mark Credit Union. Joliet is white collar too.

I happen to think joliet is a pretty nice area overall. Joliet's biggest downside is being 45-50 miles from downtown chicago. That's pretty far. One thing joliet does have going is newer affordable homes. Especially with all of the foreclosures out there.

[tjake]

Does anyone have an opinion of how Romeoville is looking these days? The population of romeoville nearly doubled since 2000, romeoville always seemed to be a bit more middle class than joliet. But unfortunately romeoville now appears to be in serious decline along with joliet. For a middle income suburb the amount of foreclosures on the market in romeoville are more than I have ever seen. Most of them appear to be cheaply built newer homes also.

[JamieLannister]

Originally Posted by tjake

.

In my opinion far suburban sprawl suburbs have noticeably lost a lot popularity among the younger generation to begin with. They seem to be less interested in moving away from urban populated neighborhoods. And are actually choosing to establish roots in high amenity urban neighborhoods like wicker park and the south loop, closer to the action. And far away from the declining suburban sprawl suburbs. I see this in young professional singles and couples with kids of all races. Multicultural neighborhoods in the city continue to gain popularity among all races of young professionals. Even in the housing crisis most of the high amenity city neighborhoods have continued to expand the urban gentrification footprint and housing values have faired much better thanin most further out suburbs. Have you seen wicker park or the south loop lately? The newer generation could care less about what is the next up and coming suburban sprawl destination for white flighters in there parents generation. And have no interest in living that far away from the conveniences and amenities of the city. Most upwardly mobile younger families of all races are choosing to do the exact opposite of what there parents did.

I agree with this. However, most of those professionals with kids will eventually move back out to the suburbs once school becomes an issue. This is why the established, transit-oriented, walkable suburbs will continue to do well -- including Homewood and Flossmoor. I've seen this with my own age group. We all love city-living in our 20s and early 30s, but once the kids come most have departed for the suburbs (or Beverly for those that utilize the parochial schools).