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Old 01-06-2015, 09:44 AM
 
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Wondering if people believe Minooka will weather the foreclosure > flipper > section 8 storm?

Plainfield Schools are hurting, but Minooka seems to be fairing better for the time being. I think you could make the case that Minooka was a few years behind Plainfield in the initial boom, which could possibly set them a few years behind Plainfield's timeline on the downturn. The style of the large subdivisions built in Minooka seem to mirror some of the more troubled Plainfield areas.

If you had kids almost to school age in the Minooka school district, would you bail? If so, where?
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:20 AM
 
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First, I agree that Plainfield was several years ahead of places like Minooka when it comes the "boom" cycle and thus it did not have as dramatic a "bust".

That said I don't know that there are really the same forces driving the foreclosures in a town that is quite a bit further out. Seem like the kind of people that got attracted to the big Del Webb development out there (Shorewood Glen?) are not as likely to move as folks with jobs. Though I personally have no use for a "retirment community" in a cold weather climate and think a 2 br detached house is darned useless, apparently Del Webb makes money on 'em and they seem stable...

The bigger factor is the relative paucity of employment in the greater I-80 corridor and even the stuff closer to Bolingbrook / Romeoville strikes me as unlikely to develop into "high wage" situations. Of course if you look at the WHOLE REGION the density of "high wage" employment is awfully limited outside of the Loop. Sure you have pockets along 88 and 294 / southern Lake Co but even things in the NW suburbs along 90 are pretty spotty. {There is an argument to be made that the Del Webb development in Huntley at least seems to have more retail nearby, not that such stuff is itself high wage, but the implication is there are at least more discretionary dollars in the household in that corridor, or some retailers made some huge mistakes...}

Of course if you read many of the threads that I contribute to you will see that my view on the future direction of Illinois is rather pessimistic -- years of financial mismanagement has left our state literally the MOST unable to cover its future pension obligations. This will necessitate a nasty INCREASE in taxes as well significant CUTBACKS in services. Now there are those would argue these cutbacks are likely to impact areas that have a high reliance on state dollars (which is undeniable) and not be as detrimental to more mature areas that have a long history of local property taxes supporting a high quality of life (which is something that I think might be too rosy a picture...).

In any case, the degree to which admittedly "fringe" areas can be expected to "flourish" is directly related to how well they can compete regionally and even nationally. It is in such an arena that other parts of the country seem to have significant advantages. Even the other upper Midwest areas that have a former "rust belt" or agricultural heritage seem to have embraced more business friendly policies. There is little doubt in my mind that states that have at least made an effort to address their own finances are more attractive to future business expansion. If one looks at the whole length I-80 eastward into states like Indiana or Ohio these seem very likely more poised for growth than Illinois. Similarly, though Minooka is not really "downstate" in a traditional sense one would have a hard time saying it has significant "business advantages" compared to places closer to St. Louis. Even heading up into Wisconson along the greater 39/90 corridor (which, once you are that far outside of the Chicago metro is probably fair game...) the overall disadvantages of Illinois are a factor...

I guess before I could really recommend "where to go" it would be important to get a sense for what sorts of employment you currently have as well as any longer term plans. Though it is true that Chicago's influence on the region is important, the broader upper midwest has more than a few areas that are very likely to offer a nice growth trajectory over the next decade or so. Health related firm in place like Madison WI or Kosciusko Co IN are highly likely to drive those areas economic fortunes in a positive way... Nationally states like Texas and other business friendly areas are poised to grow while Illinois makes hard choices about just how steeply it can raise taxes and cut services...
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:45 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Now there are those would argue these cutbacks are likely to impact areas that have a high reliance on state dollars (which is undeniable) and not be as detrimental to more mature areas that have a long history of local property taxes supporting a high quality of life (which is something that I think might be too rosy a picture...).
Not AS detrimental, but still detrimental is the key...

I don't believe that any place in Illinois is insulated from general economic decline, but we certainly are more insulated from cuts in state services in well-off suburban areas that receive little state education aid or social services. Even if the state empties the prisons and the courts have no resources to convict violent criminals (a "worst-case" scenario), we would still be better off in places like Clarendon Hills or Glen Ellyn, where the social problems that generate criminal activity are kept to a minimum. Even the well-off suburbs of Detroit have maintained a decent quality of life, in spite of the huge economic downturn in that state and region. I realize this is a myopic way to view this problem, and truly desire a solution that will have the least impact on EVERYONE in Illinois, including the urban poor. But everyone is curious about what they will have to sacrifice due to this pension crisis.

I do really worry about the economic impact of increased taxes, however. Clearly there are parts of the country that "get by" with higher taxes than we have (much of the Northeast and California in particular), but they have some structural advantages that we lack. So yes, I am worried about an economic downturn due to out-of-control tax increases. Hopefully having Rauner in power will be able to mitigate this a bit. I just want to see some real proposals and solutions out in the open for debate, and so far we don't even have that.
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Old 01-06-2015, 02:48 PM
 
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Originally Posted by chet everett View Post

I guess before I could really recommend "where to go" it would be important to get a sense for what sorts of employment you currently have as well as any longer term plans.
Sorry Chet, I'm permanently in the area. I actually commute SOUTH on I55 most days for work.

As I see it, my options are:

- SE Naperville along I-55
- Homes as far west in the Frankfort school district as possible

Either would make for a much more difficult commute for me.

- Or I could stay put

The move would be almost solely for the schools and that is difficult when it is based on pure speculation. It would be a slight bonus ito live closer to nicer shopping/dining, and finally a small part of our motivation is that we can afford 10X the house we currently own. Getting a bigger home is absolutely not make or break for us, my wife and I have always lived way below our means and we are happy 99% of the time... just every once in awhile we will get the itch for a big house for entertaining. I think we have decided that we don't want to build a huge home in the Minooka area and be the jerks with the big house. If we stay, we are staying in our current home. Not sure if this is dumb logic, but I think I'd be more inclined buy or build a large home if there were others in the area.

The wisest move might be to stay put and see how things progress, but I would just prefer not to have to move my kids midway through their school years, so I feel a little under the gun.

I just don't have a ton of faith in Minooka schools not following the path of the southern Plainfield schools. I see the % of students from low income households is on the rise. I hear there are funding concerns, I hear about foreclosures and section 8... blah, blah blah. Very few people we meet are originally from the area and many seem to have plans to move away "if they weren't backwards in their mortgage".

Really it just comes down to if I think Minooka can stay afloat and keep their test scores, demographics & funding stable. That is why I'm bugging you guys for help. Thanks!
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:23 PM
 
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Default That is kind of a tough call...

Things seem so "sparse" south of Minooka heading down 55 that I sorta assumed work was closer in.

I know a few people in Homer Glen / New Lenox and that whole area just is kind of "empty", especially around Manhattan. Frankfort probably is a bit better "value" but I would worry that an awful lot of residents down that way are similarly underwater / upside down on mortgages... School quality seems decent enough now but tax burden is likely to grow and demographics will probably shift in a positive way unless a new "growth driver" is hatched.

I am personally of the opinion that there is no way that Peotone airport ever gets built nor the goofy Illiana Tollway, but if either did it would have a positive effect...

Once upon a time I knew a guy that was a Nuclear Plant Operator. He would drive from his home near the old Zion plant all the way down to Braidwood for some crazy firefighter-like 24 on / 48 off shifts... Could be worse, huh?

If you could stay in a nicer school district like 204 (the middle schools at the southern most part of the district are among the better performing ones...) you'd probably pay more upfront but the longer term trends might be more stable. Still gonna be lots of driving...



Quote:
Originally Posted by markgenoex View Post
Sorry Chet, I'm permanently in the area. I actually commute SOUTH on I55 most days for work.

As I see it, my options are:

- SE Naperville along I-55
- Homes as far west in the Frankfort school district as possible

Either would make for a much more difficult commute for me.

- Or I could stay put

The move would be almost solely for the schools and that is difficult when it is based on pure speculation. It would be a slight bonus ito live closer to nicer shopping/dining, and finally a small part of our motivation is that we can afford 10X the house we currently own. Getting a bigger home is absolutely not make or break for us, my wife and I have always lived way below our means and we are happy 99% of the time... just every once in awhile we will get the itch for a big house for entertaining. I think we have decided that we don't want to build a huge home in the Minooka area and be the jerks with the big house. If we stay, we are staying in our current home. Not sure if this is dumb logic, but I think I'd be more inclined buy or build a large home if there were others in the area.

The wisest move might be to stay put and see how things progress, but I would just prefer not to have to move my kids midway through their school years, so I feel a little under the gun.

I just don't have a ton of faith in Minooka schools not following the path of the southern Plainfield schools. I see the % of students from low income households is on the rise. I hear there are funding concerns, I hear about foreclosures and section 8... blah, blah blah. Very few people we meet are originally from the area and many seem to have plans to move away "if they weren't backwards in their mortgage".

Really it just comes down to if I think Minooka can stay afloat and keep their test scores, demographics & funding stable. That is why I'm bugging you guys for help. Thanks!
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Old 01-06-2015, 03:38 PM
 
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Minooka, Monee, Mokena... I get them all mixed up.
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Old 01-06-2015, 06:26 PM
 
1,231 posts, read 1,792,224 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgenoex View Post
Sorry Chet, I'm permanently in the area. I actually commute SOUTH on I55 most days for work.

As I see it, my options are:

- SE Naperville along I-55
- Homes as far west in the Frankfort school district as possible

Either would make for a much more difficult commute for me.

- Or I could stay put

The move would be almost solely for the schools and that is difficult when it is based on pure speculation. It would be a slight bonus ito live closer to nicer shopping/dining, and finally a small part of our motivation is that we can afford 10X the house we currently own. Getting a bigger home is absolutely not make or break for us, my wife and I have always lived way below our means and we are happy 99% of the time... just every once in awhile we will get the itch for a big house for entertaining. I think we have decided that we don't want to build a huge home in the Minooka area and be the jerks with the big house. If we stay, we are staying in our current home. Not sure if this is dumb logic, but I think I'd be more inclined buy or build a large home if there were others in the area.

The wisest move might be to stay put and see how things progress, but I would just prefer not to have to move my kids midway through their school years, so I feel a little under the gun.

I just don't have a ton of faith in Minooka schools not following the path of the southern Plainfield schools. I see the % of students from low income households is on the rise. I hear there are funding concerns, I hear about foreclosures and section 8... blah, blah blah. Very few people we meet are originally from the area and many seem to have plans to move away "if they weren't backwards in their mortgage".

Really it just comes down to if I think Minooka can stay afloat and keep their test scores, demographics & funding stable. That is why I'm bugging you guys for help. Thanks!
I wouldn't move if you're kids are doing well in school academically or socially. If it's really inconvienent fo you to be farther than you would like, you could ask your kids how they would feel about moving. If they don't mind and/or aren't doing well in school, then you should move.

If you're kids are doing fine in school for now, then you could just stay put for now. Then in a few years, if the schools get worse, consider moving.

However, you shouldn't lengthen your commute unless it's only a 5-10 minute addition to the commute, unless you have to drive far for much shopping and other errands.
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:11 PM
 
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If you decide to move, portions of Plainfield feed into D204 in Naperville. Schools are excellent and you'll be even closer to I-55.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:44 PM
 
172 posts, read 280,729 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgenoex View Post
Wondering if people believe Minooka will weather the foreclosure > flipper > section 8 storm?

Plainfield Schools are hurting, but Minooka seems to be fairing better for the time being. I think you could make the case that Minooka was a few years behind Plainfield in the initial boom, which could possibly set them a few years behind Plainfield's timeline on the downturn. The style of the large subdivisions built in Minooka seem to mirror some of the more troubled Plainfield areas.

If you had kids almost to school age in the Minooka school district, would you bail? If so, where?
I can't answer your questions about minooka and how its going to do, but i can give you some insight into frankfort as a resident here for 6 years.

as far as your question "where to go" i think Frankfort is a very viable option. Our schools i feel are pretty under represented as a high standard school system on these boards. the high school district 210 comprises of several high schools, lincoln way north, central, and east. The high school for Frankfort is lincoln way EAST. it is a solid school, and continues to improve, showing no signs of decline or problems.

since 2001 lincoln-way test scores have improved more then any other high school district in the state of ILLINOIS (quoting Dr. R. Scott Tingley, District 210 superintendent), most recently 28 students as of this october were named as national merit scholars, including five national merit semifinalists, and several who scored a perfect 36 on the ACT this year. Our average ACT scores are identical to Lyons township. Slew of AP courses, and good AP enrollment.
academically very strong, strongest high school arguably in the southwest, comparable to some western burbs, and also a US news and world report silver medalist., only ranked school in all of will county and southwest.

athletically lincolnway east is top tier. #9th ranked HS football program in the state, state champs several times i believe most recently 2005
Lincoln-way east cheerleaders won the school first state championship 2/14
East girls track and field won second straight class 3a state champs 5/14
East boys volleyball team won state champs 6/14, and a host of other conference, regional, and sectional championships, if you care or are in athletics, its one of ILLINOIS' best.

Frankfort financially is very healthy. 2014 Frankfort made the last payment on bonds that were used to acquire prestwick utilities in the past, Frankfort is now bond and debt free. Residents whose property values remain the same or who's property values decrease, and readjusted per current market value will continue to see reductions in village portion of property tax bill, my tax bill is going down $5,000 this coming year. Frankforts excellent financial condition also indicated by the village being able to transfer 5% of its revenues to the capital fund, yearly.

Real estate value is on the uptick, and CLOSED sales of homes in the 950-1 million dollar range have gone way up, as have homes int he 500-750 k range. stalled subdivisions from the recession are now back underway FULL SWING to be completed and there are literally 30+ homes under construction from my count. My first home that i purchased in 2009, i sold at a 50,000 profit in 2013. after i bought that house the property tax was dropped by $4,000 once i submitted the HUD statement to the village.

frankfort DOES NOT have tract home builders or big corporations like you saw in PLAINFIELD, only private small, and custom home builders are allowed to build. Come drive around and you will see an amazing paucity of track homes, id say 75%+ semi custom and custom builds.

The park district is phenomenal. The frankfort park district was awarded by the National recreation and park association as a gold medal finalist for providing exceptional and innovative service, only 4 districts serving communities with populations less then 30,000 were chosen .

Downtown frankfort is a feature you won't find anywhere in the southwest. Its a small but true downtown, with streets lined with shops, cafe's, music stores, antiques, taverns, restaurants, etc., stage for music, plethora of festivals, new buildings are being constructed to add to it demonstrating vacancies are few and open spaces rent very quickly.

METRA access via mokena is available

access to i-80, 294, 355, i-57 within minutes from most parts of frankfort

its definitely worthwhile to explore and you have way more dining and shopping options. both within frankfort and your less then 10 miles away from orland square mall and all its mega retail.

chets comment about foreclosures and everyone being underwater here is pretty inaccurate. There was a firesale of foreclosures here, i know i took advantage of it in 2009, but that has DRASTICALLY evaporated. There was a shortage on housing stock, at one point when things started picking up and houses were getting multiple bids, thats when the builders took note and they are out and about full force, building to suit, not very much spec. There are about 1/2 dozen well known builders here who do probably about 80% of new home construction. They are all very reputable, i know 2 directly and a few more indirectly through neighbors and friends.

a lot of new businesses have been popping up in town, mariano's, jersey mike subs, noodles and company, urgent cares, BUONA BEEF is coming after a new 30,000 square foot retail area that has been approved is to be built, and many more.

for your purposes i would look at the western part of frankfort ( i live in north frankfort near Mariano's), around wolf road and LARAWAY, there you will find subdivisions like cobblestone walk of frankfort, and Olde stone mille, etc, very very nice.

some of the other well known subdivisions that are very noteworthy are butternut creek woods (epic), Abbey woods, lighthouse pointe, prestwick, and on the far eastern part of town there is timbers edge, frankfort meadows etc.

its not in decline. its not foreclosure heavy, the schools don't suck, its not a "south suburb" to me its very comparable to many western suburbs.
taxes are high, but as you heard chet bellyaching thats a pan ILLINOIS problem. not a certain suburb problem.

also there are very very very few low income students here, and the household incomes in frankfort are among the highest, surpassing six digits, lots of professionals in town.

its only getting better.

Last edited by drss01; 01-08-2015 at 12:06 AM..
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:46 PM
 
172 posts, read 280,729 times
Reputation: 74
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