Very weak housing market in Highland Park (Chicago, Evanston: transplants, sales)

[AdmiralAdama]

I am moving back to Chicago after time in Los Angeles and DC -- both cities with housing markets on fire.
Considering moving back to Highland Park, where I grew up. But I am somewhat taken aback by the housing market there, which seems to have buckled.

From what I can tell, housing prices have returned to the values between 2000 and 2005. There is no price appreciation.

From recent sales:

This sold below 2005 prices
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17630339
587K in 2005, sold for 540K

This sold for 7% above 2003 price
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17629881
332K in 2003, sold for 356K

This sold for 17% over 2000 prices, or an appreciation of about 1%
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17625651
204K in 2000, sold for 239K

This sold for 3% over 2005 price
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/14197081
500K in 2005, sold for 514K

This sold under 2004 price
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17617507
664K in 2004, sold for 645K

When did the HP market get so bad? It seems worse than the other North suburbs --- why? Are people aware of just how weak it is? Or am I misreading something? What's up?

[rocky12345]

If you see my post below, I have made the same observation. The higher tiers of housing on the shore and adjacent to it in many parts don't move and there is a ton of inventory. I know of one high income professional who has tried to sell his 1+ mil home for 4 yrs in HP, and now has it below 500k what he bought and no takers this year. If you go to Zillow, it is truly incredible how much 800+ inventory there is and how little sells. My belief is that the insane taxes and slow economy are contributing to poor market. North cook got jacked up an average of 25% in tax assesments recently. Some school issues in HP are probably not helping either.

[JJski]

When we moved here (3y ago) we looked at NS. We had a large budget - what turned us off about the NS was how quiet it was. We focused in on HP initially... We also expected a traverse city (MI) beach vibe - life at the beach that we did not see/get. So we went to more vibrant west...

This is a out of state transplants point of view.

[wjj]

Originally Posted by AdmiralAdama

I am moving back to Chicago after time in Los Angeles and DC -- both cities with housing markets on fire.
Considering moving back to Highland Park, where I grew up. But I am somewhat taken aback by the housing market there, which seems to have buckled.

From what I can tell, housing prices have returned to the values between 2000 and 2005. There is no price appreciation.

From recent sales:

This sold below 2005 prices
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17630339
587K in 2005, sold for 540K

This sold for 7% above 2003 price
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17629881
332K in 2003, sold for 356K

This sold for 17% over 2000 prices, or an appreciation of about 1%
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17625651
204K in 2000, sold for 239K

This sold for 3% over 2005 price
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/14197081
500K in 2005, sold for 514K

This sold under 2004 price
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Highland-P.../home/17617507
664K in 2004, sold for 645K

When did the HP market get so bad? It seems worse than the other North suburbs --- why? Are people aware of just how weak it is? Or am I misreading something? What's up?

It's not just the HP market. You can see the same situation all over the north and northwest suburbs. It's pretty much the same in Buffalo Grove. And as bad as the prices you state already are, when you factor in a 6% sales commission, it is even worse. I know in my BG neighborhood, prices are at about 2004-2005 levels right now. But it is better than it was just a couple of years ago. But the real killer is despite the stagnant prices, real estate taxes have exploded. My RE taxes are up 30% since 2006 but my house is worth less than it was in 2006. You can go through a site like Zillow and see the price history of neighboring homes and I think you will see that many people who bought in the 2007-2009 time frame are in a negative equity position.

I think the housing recovery in the entire suburban area has been very lumpy. Some areas have come all the way back, some are at prices of about a decade ago, and some are at 1990s levels or worse. I think there are very few that are exceeding the peak prices of 2006 or 2007. And those few are likely very small highly desirable pockets within a suburb, and not suburb-wide.

[4122]

They're thinking of closing Lincoln, Ravinia, Elm Place, and the Green Bay early childhood center.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by rocky12345

If you see my post below, I have made the same observation. The higher tiers of housing on the shore and adjacent to it in many parts don't move and there is a ton of inventory. I know of one high income professional who has tried to sell his 1+ mil home for 4 yrs in HP, and now has it below 500k what he bought and no takers this year. If you go to Zillow, it is truly incredible how much 800+ inventory there is and how little sells. My belief is that the insane taxes and slow economy are contributing to poor market. North cook got jacked up an average of 25% in tax assesments recently. Some school issues in HP are probably not helping either.

As I pointed out on rocky12345's thread, these areas are experiencing a secular decline. This phenomenon is not unique to the North Shore or the Chicagoland area. The same phenomenon is happening in historically affluent and desirable areas around New York City like Greenwich's Backcountry, New Jersey Hunt Country, and the Bedford area. The affluent buyer is no longer interested in the 'country seat' so to speak. The trend is toward more vibrant, more densely populated, and transit rich communities. As cool as the upper-end of the market is in Highland Park, the market is hot in Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Edgewater, Evanston, and Wilmette. If you think that Highland Park is bad, take a look at Lake Forest. Lake Forest is an absolute catastrophe waiting to happen. I do want to correct a point that rocky12345 seemed to be making, "North cook got jacked up an average of 25% tax [assessments] recently," does not apply to Highland Park, Lincolnshire, or Deerfield, all of which are located in Lake County. Further, most data suggest that there is not a negative correlation between property taxes and property values. If near-term housing values are very important to you, I would suggest following the current tastes and trends when investing in property. In aggregate, Chicagoland's housing market is performing well according to the Case-Shiller index. Homes have historically appreciated more slowly in Chicagoland and the Midwest, so that is to be expected.

[flamadiddle]

Schools are a huge selling point and I noticed some of the schools in HP are now almost 50% Hispanic.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by flamadiddle

Schools are a huge selling point and I noticed some of the schools in HP are now almost 50% Hispanic.

So what? What do the demographics of the student body of a school have to do with the quality of the education being offered? A diverse student body is nothing new for Highland Park schools. Highland Park schools have been relatively more diverse than the likes of Lake Forest for many years. Many expensive and affluent suburban areas across the country have diverse, yet high performing public schools, including, but not limited to: Evanston, IL; Oak Park and River Forest, IL; Winter Park, FL; Greenwich, CT; Atherton and Menlo Park, CA; Shaker Heights, OH; Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, MI; and Brookline, MA.

[Vosges]

Isn't there something going on with the schools Highland Park? I think I remember Damba posting about potential school closing a in another thread.

It's discussed in this thread: skip the Wilmette and Winnetka part

//www.city-data.com/forum/chica...al-estate.html

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by Vosges

Isn't there something going on with the schools Highland Park? I think I remember Damba posting about potential school closing a in another thread.

It's discussed in this thread: skip the Wilmette and Winnetka part

//www.city-data.com/forum/chica...al-estate.html

My understanding is that District 112 (Highland Park/Highwood) has been struggling with long-term budgetary issues and community disagreement over how to reorganize the school district. A referendum was defeated earlier this year that would have consolidated all fifth- through eighth-grade students, about 1,800 in total, on a single middle school campus in southwest Highland Park where Red Oak and Sherwood elementary schools now stand. Six of the district's schools were slated to close when the new middle school opened, and six schools would be renovated to serve the district's kindergarten through fourth grade students. Essentially, District 112 would follow the model currently in place in Wilmette and other surrounding communities, with neighborhood elementary schools and a district-wide middle school and junior high school. As an outsider, the main issues seem to be that Highland Park residents neither want changes, nor do they want to pay for capital improvements required for the changes to be made. Some parents were upset that they would no longer have a "neighborhood school," an antiquated and harmful concept in my opinion. Currently, the district is mulling closing four of the elementary schools without a referendum.