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Old 04-17-2008, 10:11 AM
 
28,455 posts, read 84,957,533 times
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Great points from pman1 -- I've got decades of experience that show over the long haul stability is a very good thing to look for in real estate. Sure you MIGHT get a bargain in a boom town if you get in early, but odds are not good.

A little more established area (or a lot, if you like the charm) removes a lot of risk. Solid communities are desirable for a whole bunch of reasons, energy costs only add to the appeal.

The long held formula on how much a remodel should return in value used to stress doing it so that you'd enjoy the house more, not that you'd get back every penny you put in and then some. If the remodeling is lower quality or adds space/features in a way that buyers feel are deceptive it destroys the trust that is need to commit to hundreds of thousands of debt.

There is a right price for every house and for more than a few houses that price is way below what the sellers had in mind. That said, there are some gems out there that are getting lost because the inventory is up. People are going to have to winnow through the places and set up multiple showings at convenient times to showcase the places that are priced right...
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Old 04-17-2008, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,841,218 times
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Default Summer 08 bottom prediction - FUNNY

I am going to hold that realtor to his prediction that prices will level off in summer 08. I don't see this happening. I think summer of 09 is more likely for Chicago, maybe even later for the burbs.

What do others think?
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Old 04-17-2008, 11:28 AM
 
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There have been some towns whose "average selling price" by month is STILL rising, of course it is because NO condos sold and ONLY single family sales were recorded so it is a bit of distortion.

It'll be town by town though, no doubt some towns are going really see some big percentage drops. In some towns there were people that really had no sense for how far over the historic median price they were at. If you paid a multiple of 12x or 15x of that is it really sustainable?

A lot depends on the ability of people who need to borrow more, and have pretty solid income, to get a loan at a rate that doesn't seem punishing. Right now I'd say that might be somebody who needs to borrow way into jumbo territory is not really getting more than 1.5-1.75% extra interest penalty. If that jumps to 2 or more it will really turn off those borrowers, many of who have income in the eye popping range of well over $200K...

At the other end the problem is completely different. I don't see companies shutting down or those scary mass layoffs. I don't hear about (yet) any college new hires that are getting those awful "whoops that job we promised you doesn't exist".

I think this could be a slower kind of problem that sees the prices in some areas dribbling along for several years but the stable communities downing OK.
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Old 04-17-2008, 11:35 AM
 
56 posts, read 266,137 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humboldt1 View Post
I am going to hold that realtor to his prediction that prices will level off in summer 08. I don't see this happening. I think summer of 09 is more likely for Chicago, maybe even later for the burbs.

What do others think?
I think we will see prices at the 1998 levels before it starts upward again.
Just my 2 cents though.
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Old 04-17-2008, 11:38 AM
 
28,455 posts, read 84,957,533 times
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Default REALLY don't see that happening...

Quote:
Originally Posted by IcantSELLmyHouse View Post
I think we will see prices at the 1998 levels before it starts upward again.
Just my 2 cents though.
Here's an offer: Can I buy YOUR place right now for what it is worth in 1998?

I'll be right over with my checkbook!
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Old 04-17-2008, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Tower Grove East, St. Louis, MO
12,063 posts, read 31,480,572 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post

At the other end the problem is completely different. I don't see companies shutting down or those scary mass layoffs. I don't hear about (yet) any college new hires that are getting those awful "whoops that job we promised you doesn't exist".
Journalism, finance, physics, English and biology

5 recent grads, 5 close friends, 11 months since graduation, not one has a job in their career field (2 of them are completely unemployed)

Believe me, it's rotten out there.
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Old 04-17-2008, 12:18 PM
 
Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,841,218 times
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Default Aragx6

Where did your friends go to school and what kind of grades did they make?

Did they do internships while in school?

And how can someone not work for 11 months? I would be miserable. I would rather work at Wal-Mart or McDonald's than spend all day at home feeling sorry for myself. Out of college I was unemployed and living at home for 2 weeks and couldn't take it any longer and took a job running a construction crew.

This job market is much better than 2001 from what I have seen thus far, but with all the declines in the economy we may be catching up with 2001 soon. I had 1 of those offers with Ford Credit that disappeared in 2001, which made me stop looking for other jobs.

Still, how can your 2 friends sit at home and not work for 11 months. I understand pride, but even I was willing to take a manual labor construction job to get out of the house.
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Old 04-17-2008, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Chicago's burbs
1,016 posts, read 4,529,554 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humboldt1 View Post
This job market is much better than 2001 from what I have seen thus far, but with all the declines in the economy we may be catching up with 2001 soon. I had 1 of those offers with Ford Credit that disappeared in 2001, which made me stop looking for other jobs.
Yep, I was one of those lucky 2001 grads. After looking for a job in my field for 6 months, I took an admin. assistant job which I worked at for 9 months before I finally found a job in my field. (graphic design)

Aragx6, tell your friends to keep their heads up, they will find jobs, it just takes a long time in a lousy economy.
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Old 04-17-2008, 02:54 PM
 
28,455 posts, read 84,957,533 times
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Total unemployment numbers for all people who are collage grads are only 2% -- basically a labor shortage. (Number for the general population are about 5%)

I really feel colleges ought to require internships or some sort of related employment in a relevant field before they 'certify' your degree. I mean what kind of effort would it take to line up something related to biology (drug companies, agriculture and health care related firms are all doing pretty well), or finance (despite the mortgage blow-up there are tons of compliance / risk management slots open in both public firms and government bodies), journalism (anybody seen a newsstand lately? all those magazines live on young talent), physics (you might have heard there is little thing called 'global warming' that is causing just about everybody to invest in green technology that rely on amazing properties of the simplest things), and English (why would anybody major in THAT? but seriously my wife was an English major and she added a degree in accounting and works at a giant bureaucracy that every on earth relies on and my sister was an English major who added a degree in healthcare).

Of course if you don't understand what kinds of work people with your degree might do OR you really are not that impressive to employers because of poor grades than is it the fault of the economy, the schools or something that shows up in your mirror?
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Old 04-17-2008, 02:59 PM
 
Location: Tower Grove East, St. Louis, MO
12,063 posts, read 31,480,572 times
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Sadly one of them is my boyfriend (the physics major) He made solid grades, worked in a lab envornment for 3 years, has interviewed for 3 physics jobs and when that didn't work out began applying for temp work, admin assistant work and retail work (Best Buy and the like)

Jobs are being lost in nearly every sector, but construction is the hardest hit, so good luck even trying to do that (esp. in winter) Believe me when I tell you- no one is hiring right now. Most places are holding their breath to see how the economy progresses.

The journalism friend: Just finished a six month unpaid internship and is working as a hostess at a seafood restauarant making less than she did at her high school job

The finance friend:Finished a stint in November grading standardized tests for the state of Missouri. Has applied for countless retail jobs and can't get any (even though she has 4 years experience)

English: She is currently working as a tour guide at the St. Louis Science Center... her colleagues are in high school.

Bio major: In Chicago searched for temp job for 6 months before finally getting a vaguely scientific job that pays poorly and has nothing to do with her major.

Every one of them is well-qualified, good people who made great grades (3.25 or higher) in college. I'm just glad I have a job...
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