Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I live in 60504 and in my neighborhood single house sale is between $200k-$260k with having a good chance to become $300k in next couple of years. I think that house price cannot increases forever, honestly I believe that my house it's not worth more than $300k. My question is, When time comes and houses get their pick, what's next? What's usually happens with such a neighborhood?
I live in 60504 and in my neighborhood single house sale is between $200k-$260k with having a good chance to become $300k in next couple of years. I think that house price cannot increases forever, honestly I believe that my house it's not worth more than $300k. My question is, When time comes and houses get their pick, what's next? What's usually happens with such a neighborhood?
Aurora? You are probably correct, although nobody can say for certain.
Nothing is ever really "final" when it comes to real estate -- there are ups and downs as tastes change, technology shifts, modes of transportation become more or less feasible...
If somebody asked me to put my own money on what sorts of prices there will be in a part of Aurora that currently is the high $200/low $300k range I would not bet on much appreciation over the next 5 years. The big factors will be the continued pressures on employers to leave Illinois or at least concentrate near the Loop AND the out of control property tax situation that increasingly is being asked to support unsustainable benefits promised by politicians to both undeserving insiders along with huge numbers of mostly honest teachers, municipal workers and similar folks that nobody really wants to see get shafted...
These things could get solved if Mike Madigan is no longer in the picture and different political leaders honestly work to solve the mess that he has thrived on for four decades. Illinois has the potential to see many of the now shaky business areas again become robust -- that would include the various office developments, warehouses, industrial parks and retail that now are underutilized around Aurora and the greater I-88 / Fox Valley region. Of course that also assumes that there is no major US or global economic crisis / downturn nor any sort of unrest / armed conflict that impedes economic optimism, no crystal ball into those things...
Without a total rethink of how the promises are fulfilled for pensions Illinois has a bleak future. If you look at the current situation in even the nicest southern suburbs -- hugely depressed housing values and sky high tax rates, that could be the fate for the entire region. I think that the potential for that is shockingly high -- it likely will be the MAJOR reason behind Amazon not picking Chicago for its HQ2 efforts and potentially could trigger the exodus of existing major employers in the region like CME, UAL, BlueCross-BlueSheild-HCCA, a major Lake Co based pharma / healthcare firm, or similar high profile firms. Depending on the reaction of Illinois politicians there could be domino effect that literally would see the whole state fall even further in population losses.
OTOH, looking out ten or fifteen years, when Mike Madigan will very likely be dead, http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/76/75 there is the potential for both a whole new outlook on politics and transformative shifts in the kinds of technology that might give the region a giant boost -- if Chicago becomes "ground zero" for advanced Hyperloop style transportation the existing layout of rail lines that radiate out from Chicago could be precisely the thing that makes what was once "science fiction" type speedy and efficient transit the norm. I can imagine folks who currently commute to Lakeview choosing Aurora for FASTER ride to / from work. Maybe the sorts of fantastic speeds that some rail transit folks imagine shortening trips to St. Louis, Detroit, or Cleveland really makes more sense as transformation of the daily commute. I could also see fully autonomous non-internal combustion vehicles leapfrogging over existing rail and airlines for those regional commutes as well as revolutionizing long haul trucking and potentially solving all the traffic tie-ups on the interstates. You gotta realize that ten or so years ago the 'state of the art" cell phone was something like this gem from Nokia -- If the same pace of change is applied to transportation the benefits would be even more dramatic.
Last edited by chet everett; 12-27-2017 at 10:50 PM..
Chet, thanks for all that explanation, your responses are always challenge for me I always read it with dictionary in my hands, lol. Of course I don’t mind it.
Last edited by majka; 12-28-2017 at 11:34 AM..
Reason: .
Chet, thanks for all that explanation, your responses are always challenge for me I always read it with dictionary in my hands, lol. Of course I don’t mind it.
Chet was a mensa kid unlike us common folk using regular words...
Illinois will continue to shrink, losing residents and employers alike, but the wealthy and upscale areas will continue to be in demand. Nice areas with good school districts, access to shopping and other amenities will be the only areas to sustain their housing values while the rest of the state will lag behind or be severely depressed. The continued exodus of working adults and millenials will drive a boom in housing supply. There will be no reason for anyone to move to Aurora when housing stock is opening up in St. Charles, for example.
Grossly oversimplified, almost to the point of obscuring what really happens...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caglee
Illinois will continue to shrink, losing residents and employers alike, but the wealthy and upscale areas will continue to be in demand. Nice areas with good school districts, access to shopping and other amenities will be the only areas to sustain their housing values while the rest of the state will lag behind or be severely depressed. The continued exodus of working adults and millenials will drive a boom in housing supply. There will be no reason for anyone to move to Aurora when housing stock is opening up in St. Charles, for example.
Aurora is in many ways NOT a good town to model anything on -- for starters it is ENORMOUS by Chicago suburban standards, with population well over 200K. Among the other things that makes it very hard to categorize Aurora is that parts are served by the D204 schools, which are generally highly desirable, while other parts are served by East Aurora schools (which oddly are mostly west of D204) and other parts are served by West Aurora, which while not a top tier district is mostly not bad by conventional measures, and few parts are even served by Batavia Schools, which is are likely even better than West Aurora.
As if the school situation is not confusing enough, so too is the employment situation -- there are LOTS of modern logistics locations that are doing quite well, even some well run manufacturing locations, a few office parks and such bordering Aurora are also a source of good jobs. That said, the traditional core of town is mostly not doing well despite some nice renovations and other improvements fueled by revenue from casino -- the sorts of low cost ethnic restaurants just don't have the same kind of upscale clientele of nicer towns along the Fox River...
All that said, what is happening in even the worst parts of Aurora is that folks with a bit of "risk tolerance" are mostly fixing up the most run down homes and either renting them to tenants who otherwise would be stuck in crummy apartments or selling them. That is mostly a good thing -- owners of rental houses generally are not going to tolerate as much crime / chaos as absent investors in slum lord type apartments. Folks who live in owner occupied homes are even less likely to tolerate such things. Of course the price trends of smaller homes are not moving upward, but much of that has to do with shifts in not just income but also the lifestyle issues -- when folks romanticize how "hard working" folks of previous generations could make a good living with just a strong back in some factories / mills / quarries the reality those workers would also self medicate with long nights at local taprooms. Now the good paying jobs for folks without college in places like logistics / warehouses require a safe workplace where the forklifts, conveyors, robotic controls and such make things less strenuous -- the workers go home to big screen TVs, fancy outdoor cooking gear and similar things. It is a major shift that mostly is safer and more family oriented. Those same shifts are happening in other areas too - the more affordable place close to O'Hare like Franklin Park, Melrose Park, and even Bensenville are clearly seeing shifting ethnic migration BUT folks who are working jobs nearby for warehouses and light assembly are mostly moving into areas where home prices may not be appreciating but neither are they falling off a cliff as is happening in the devastated south suburbs...
The thing too is that any sort of "economic revitalization" that would be necessary in the worst areas is such a massive scale that there is really no combination of private firms (who largely see better options in other parts of the country like Texas, Tennessee, or Georgia...) or Illinois government (that is flat out broke, with all funds committed to pensions for insiders...) that can turn things around. In short, things that are on the "Detroit downward spiral" are not going to turn around...
What is really interesting to me, as I have a new role that requires significantly more travel, is there are certainly some other spots in the country that are really doing quite well. Just a few hours northeast of Chicago, so weather is worse, Grand Rapids is booming -- https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...owth/29024917/
In the greater Atlanta area there are towns that are basically trying to replicate the kind of success that has previously made Napervile a nationally known center for tech and related firms -- https://patch.com/georgia/alpharetta...-is-aggressive
These things don't happen when local officials care more about taking care of their insider pals as continues to be the case for Illinois -- "Corrupt Illinois" | Chicago Tonight | WTTW
As far as going to East Aurora, with SD 204 this part of the city for me, looks promising. In my neighborhood, houses are only owner-occupied, neighboring Oswego is kind of expensive too (different SD), not mentioning Oakhurst is a very pretty subdivision, schools are so close that are accessible even by bike. I have to admit that one of my child needs special help (learning delay) and she gets help all year long, and just because of her I wouldn't change school they attend. I hope this part of Aurora will stay like this or even better. We need to live here at least for next 10 years.
As far as going with areas near O'Hare - I don't mind people have big screen tv and fancy grills, as far as they pay me the rent, I am ok with their lifestyle, lol. We bought a nice 4 unit house in downtown Addison and it happened the previous owner was a Polish girl, she owned that house for last 5 years and she definitely did a great deal on it. I just started to learn Spanish phrases to be able to communicate with my tenants, works for me though. Thanks, Chad, as usual, you are a great source of information here in city data. Thanks for other folks here that are very regular and know "how to eat Chicago" Happy New Year 2018!!!
Aurora is in many ways NOT a good town to model anything on -- for starters it is ENORMOUS by Chicago suburban standards, with population well over 200K. Among the other things that makes it very hard to categorize Aurora is that parts are served by the D204 schools, which are generally highly desirable, while other parts are served by East Aurora schools (which oddly are mostly west of D204) and other parts are served by West Aurora, which while not a top tier district is mostly not bad by conventional measures, and few parts are even served by Batavia Schools, which is are likely even better than West Aurora.
There is no real argument that the schools that are part of Batavia D101 are more highly rated than those that are part of West Aurora D129, the grey area is that there are a likely several neighborhoods where the home values are flipped. Some of that is probably because homes served by Batavia D101 in North Aurora (which is a separate municipality ...) tend to be smaller, older and not developed with same sort of planning as homes in most parts of Batavia nor those in the areas served by West Aurora D129.
It is kind of weird too because there are some rather different competitive challenges for folks selling homes out that way -- places served by Sugar Grove, Kaneland, or Oswego have historically been more rural. Though a few spots along the west edge of Batavia retains some of that rural character shifts in employment and such have made the parts closer to Fermi much more suburban and builders who were once active in St. Charles or Geneva have also built very impressive homes in Batavia, driving prices up considerably in those areas.
For a relatively compact area, that stretches from just east of Farnsworth / Kirk Rd, to just west of Orchard Rd (about 6 miles) there are more "exceptions" to the rules of pricing than almost any other part of the region -- a real estate pro that understands those local factors is crucial if you don't want to over pay for an area that has less history of price stability.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
If the same pace of change is applied to transportation the benefits would be even more dramatic.
Grossly oversimplified, almost to the point of obscuring what really happens...
