The Crime in Chicago is Exaggerated (buy, live, cars)

[OleSchoolFool]

Originally Posted by Link N. Parker

All other 49 states in this country allow some form of concealed carry, and the fears that the anti-gunners have never come true...are there gun accidents here and there? Sure, yes, but there are more car accidents than gun accidents.

I don't want stupid people with guns either; maybe an IQ test is the answer...

maybe, but its unlikely to become law, people will cry discrimination of dumb people

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by oakparkdude

I don't remember this past winter as being particularly cold or long. I think I shoveled two or three times all winter long. In the context of the past 50 years or even the past 20 years I'm sure it doesn't stand out as being particularly harsh. Obviously time will tell if this summer is more violent than the norm.

Exactly

[chet everett]

The key is using an "unpleasantness factor" -- bad guys don't get out as much when it is cold and wet. This past January was actually one of the less wet months -- National Weather Service Text Product Display

Interestingly, in a relative sense, the weather data for June '12 seems to indicate that the temps were a little above normal the warmest days were often accompanied by storms -- again that would surpress the bad guy factor too -- National Weather Service Text Product Display

What we need it to pair John Drummond and Tom Skilling to give the "crime forecast"...

Originally Posted by marothisu

Well, I'd like to think that too, but if that's the case, then why were there 43 homicides in January this year, which was almost as many as JUNE of last year (47)?

January of 2013: 43

June 2012: 47
July 2012: 49
September 2012: 44

May 2011: 39
June 2011: 46
August 2011: 37
September 2011: 39

etc. I have thrown out the theory too but it doesn't hold but I'm beginning to think it doesn't always matter.

[Attrill]

While I'm sure the weather helps a little, the reduction is due to a lot more than weather - there have been plenty of similar winters over the last 30 years that saw homicide numbers twice as high as this year's. And remember, we're looking at reductions of more than 40%, that's huge.

More importantly, there is a consistent trend towards fewer homicides. For the last six months every month (other than January) has seen numbers lower than historical norms.

2013 2012 2011 2010
Apr: 24 41 30 47
Mar: 15 50 22 31
Feb: 14 28 25 24
Jan: 43 40 28 20
Dec: 25 37 25
Nov: 37 39 32


January was certainly high, but wasn't completely out of line with many past years (2012 = 40, 2008 = 35). It's important to remember that 2011 had the lowest homicide rate Chicago has seen in decades, and we're on track to beat that.

McCarthy actually predicted a spike last year with reductions starting in 2013. His claim was that they brought in a lot of gang leaders in late 2011/early 2012 which created a power struggle for awhile, but ultimately it will weaken gangs dramatically. I think some of the spike also had to do with the fact that the CPD was basically leaderless for a good chunk of 2011, and then went through changes as new policies were put into place during 2011/early 2012.

[oakparkdude]

Originally Posted by Attrill

While I'm sure the weather helps a little, the reduction is due to a lot more than weather - there have been plenty of similar winters over the last 30 years that saw homicide numbers twice as high as this year's. And remember, we're looking at reductions of more than 40%, that's huge.

More importantly, there is a consistent trend towards fewer homicides. For the last six months every month (other than January) has seen numbers lower than historical norms.

2013 2012 2011 2010
Apr: 24 41 30 47
Mar: 15 50 22 31
Feb: 14 28 25 24
Jan: 43 40 28 20
Dec: 25 37 25
Nov: 37 39 32


January was certainly high, but wasn't completely out of line with many past years (2012 = 40, 2008 = 35). It's important to remember that 2011 had the lowest homicide rate Chicago has seen in decades, and we're on track to beat that.

McCarthy actually predicted a spike last year with reductions starting in 2013. His claim was that they brought in a lot of gang leaders in late 2011/early 2012 which created a power struggle for awhile, but ultimately it will weaken gangs dramatically. I think some of the spike also had to do with the fact that the CPD was basically leaderless for a good chunk of 2011, and then went through changes as new policies were put into place during 2011/early 2012.

Excellent analysis. While the season spike in homicides is consistent and recurring (lower in the cold months, higher in the warm months), the year-over-year annual declines in homicide cannot be discounted as weather-related. I remember when Jody Wies started there was a year-over-year uptick in homcides in his first year in 2008. In the following years, the homicide count declined to all-time lows. Likewise, with the hiring of McCarthy in 2011, there was a spike in homicides in his first full year.

It seems that when outsiders (Weis and McCarthy) came in they shook things up and disrupted operations which temporarily decreased the efficiency of the CPD in preventing homicides. Once the new policies are in place, however, Weis and (so far) McCarthy seem to have had success (at least in decreasing homicides).

[nana053]

Originally Posted by Link N. Parker

All other 49 states in this country allow some form of concealed carry, and the fears that the anti-gunners have never come true...are there gun accidents here and there? Sure, yes, but there are more car accidents than gun accidents.

I don't want stupid people with guns either; maybe an IQ test is the answer...

Yeah, the parents of this kid need an IQ test and so do the people who market this rifle.

‘My First Rifle’: 5-Year-Old Brother Accidentally Kills Sister, 2-Year-Old Caroline Starks, With Kid-Friendly Gun

Original post: A 2-year-old Kentucky girl was fatally shot by her 5-year-old brother on Tuesday afternoon, when he was playing around with a rifle he had been given as a gift and shot her by mistake.

Caroline Starks was rushed to Cumberland County Hospital just after 1 p.m. on Tuesday, where she was pronounced dead, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports. The girl’s mother had been at home at the time of the shooting but told police that she had stepped outside to the porch for “no more than three minutes.”

MY FIRST RIFLE - marketed to 5 year olds and their parents - pretty stupid, if you ask me.

[ChiNaan]

Originally Posted by nana053

Yeah, the parents of this kid need an IQ test and so do the people who market this rifle.

‘My First Rifle’: 5-Year-Old Brother Accidentally Kills Sister, 2-Year-Old Caroline Starks, With Kid-Friendly Gun



MY FIRST RIFLE - marketed to 5 year olds and their parents - pretty stupid, if you ask me.

I'm waiting for the NRA to issue a statement saying that this could have been prevented if the parents had armed the 2-year-old so she could defend herself.

[Link N. Parker]

Originally Posted by nana053

Yeah, the parents of this kid need an IQ test and so do the people who market this rifle.

‘My First Rifle’: 5-Year-Old Brother Accidentally Kills Sister, 2-Year-Old Caroline Starks, With Kid-Friendly Gun



MY FIRST RIFLE - marketed to 5 year olds and their parents - pretty stupid, if you ask me.

I dont know about a gun for a 5 year old, Sure, accidents happen, kids can get ahold of guns etc, but other household objects kill more people than guns. There was a guy who worked at my employer who accidentally mixed two household cleaners and he died; it killed his son too.

I also know of a guy who died because his GPS device led him down the wrong road and he was killed. Should we ban GPS devices too?

What about all of the times when guns have saved lives, or prevented rapes? To me guns are essential life-saving devices.

[OleSchoolFool]

Originally Posted by nana053

Yeah, the parents of this kid need an IQ test and so do the people who market this rifle.

‘My First Rifle’: 5-Year-Old Brother Accidentally Kills Sister, 2-Year-Old Caroline Starks, With Kid-Friendly Gun



MY FIRST RIFLE - marketed to 5 year olds and their parents - pretty stupid, if you ask me.

well got damn, this is a new level of stupidity

[nana053]

Originally Posted by Link N. Parker

I dont know about a gun for a 5 year old, Sure, accidents happen, kids can get ahold of guns etc, but other household objects kill more people than guns. There was a guy who worked at my employer who accidentally mixed two household cleaners and he died; it killed his son too.

I also know of a guy who died because his GPS device led him down the wrong road and he was killed. Should we ban GPS devices too?

What about all of the times when guns have saved lives, or prevented rapes? To me guns are essential life-saving devices.

While I agree that banning guns would not necessarily reduce crime, it seems to me that background checks are essential and that we should get tough on people who do straw purchases for criminals and people with mental health issues. Note that this has to be on the federal level to be effective. If you go state by state, people just travel to get their guns.

Why expanding background checks would, in fact, reduce gun crime

Criminals won’t obey any background check laws. So why would expanding the current law do any good?
The logic of this argument is flawed. It could be used to dismiss the utility of virtually any law because criminals will disobey it. The illogical exemption of private gun sales from background checks is the very reason that criminals don’t currently have to obey existing background check laws.
State laws prohibiting high-risk groups — perpetrators of domestic violence, violent misdemeanants and the severely mentally ill — from possessing firearms have been shown to reduce violence. [1, 2] One of my studies found that a number of state laws prohibiting individuals under a domestic violence restraining order from owning guns produced an overall 19 percent reduction in intimate partner homicides. [3]