Why is UpTown considered bad? (Chicago, Manhattan: real estate market, foreclosure, lease)

[Aleking]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

I lived in the "Buena Park" section of Uptown for eight years (just left recently), and most of that area is perfectly fine. But here is a sample of what we dealt with in that time frame in various parts of Uptown:

1. A kid (gang member) getting shot in the buttocks near the end of our block.
2. A kid (gang member) getting shot at Irving Park and Broadway in the middle of the day.
3. "Drive-by" gunfire at 6 p.m. near the most popular Buena Park playground.
4. Watching a cop search for a discarded handgun in the bushes near another playground, while pushing my kids on the swings.
4. A creepy shirtless homeless guy, probably mentally ill or addicted to something, blowing smoke at the car window near my child's car seat, and then putting the cigarette butt out on the trunk of my car (my wife was alone with the kids).
5. Playing with the kids at the park as a homeless man exposes himself to urinate on the slide.
6. Wheeling a child in stroller past multiple open-air drug deals.
7. Wheeling a stroller wheel over a bloody dread lock that was ripped off of someone's head.
8. Multiple incidents of homeless people sleeping and eating (messily) in our building's vestibule.
9. Racial slurs directed at me while waiting for the Red Line at Wilson (I'm white).
10. Racial slurs directed at me while dining at an open air restaurant.

Lot's of good times in Uptown, and a really great place to raise kids!

Buena Park sounds much worse than up where I am

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Aleking

Buena Park sounds much worse than up where I am

Some of these incidents were in fact further north, but spend eight years in any one place in the city and you'll have some stories. I actually found Buena Park to be mostly quiet and trouble free compared to my past experiences living in Lincoln Park, Lake View, and Wicker Park (I'm an old fart on this forum).

[Chicago76]

I'm no fan of Shiller, but I have to give her some credit. Her electoral base was the impoverished living in her ward and she did cater to their needs and welcome more of them. If you look at the northern third of the city (Near Northside-West Town-Humboldt Park-Austin and north), in 1980, Uptown had the fourth highest poverty rate (behind the Near Northside, West Town, and Humboldt Park). In 1990, it had the third highest poverty rate (behind only West Town and Humboldt Park). In 2000, it had the second highest poverty rate (behind only Humboldt Park). 53% of grade school aged children in Uptown live in poverty. That's 8th worst in the entire city--worse than places like either Garfield Park CA, Austin, Pilsen, Woodlawn, South Shore, Oakland, etc.

When you factor in the actual condition and crime rate in Uptown, it should have been a whole lot worse, so she did do something to support organizations that kept the area from completely unraveling.

That doesn't outweigh heavy handedness and the bad though. She could have been awesome as some sort of affordable housing/community outreach czar for the north side if she got along with Daley and wasn't so intent on keeping a grip on her own little fiefdom. She would have been good in a role where she was in charge of getting Cabrini residents resettled with proper support and sprinkling the poverty around the northside via integrated housing initiatives to integrate communities economically rather than containing it to her little ward to get herself re-elected term after term. Oh well.

In 15 years, Uptown will be Lakeview 2.0 anyway, so whatever she did accomplished (both good and bad) won't be around. It's too at odds vs. market forces to continue given the declining political will.

[Aleking]

Originally Posted by Chicago76

In 15 years, Uptown will be Lakeview 2.0 anyway, so whatever she did accomplished (both good and bad) won't be around. It's too at odds vs. market forces to continue given the declining political will.

incredibly unlikely

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Aleking

incredibly unlikely

I think 20 years is a more interesting timeframe, as the kids of the 2007-2008 baby boom become young adults. Lake View itself in 20 years won't be the lilly white neighborhood it is now. Just look at the younger generation in elementary schools. Suburban towns that are 90% white have elementary schools that are 65% white (and the white population is aging). The new generation growing up is browner and less concerned with race.

So maybe Uptown and Lake View WILL be similar in 20 years.

[Aleking]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

I think 20 years is a more interesting timeframe, as the kids of the 2007-2008 baby boom become young adults. Lake View itself in 20 years won't be the lilly white neighborhood it is now. Just look at the younger generation in elementary schools. Suburban towns that are 90% white have elementary schools that are 65% white (and the white population is aging). The new generation growing up is browner and less concerned with race.

So maybe Uptown and Lake View WILL be similar in 20 years.

Of course, racial demographics in America are changing. I just think that progressive groups in Uptown are active enough that the neighborhood will remain the lone bastion of social services and affordable housing on the northside...and for that reason it will always be labeled sketchy.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Aleking

Of course, racial demographics in America are changing. I just think that progressive groups in Uptown are active enough that the neighborhood will remain the lone bastion of social services and affordable housing on the northside...and for that reason it will always be labeled sketchy.

I think some people have a bad reaction to Lake View because of the perception that it's all white frat boys/sorority girls from Michigan. The idea of Uptown turning in to Lake View 2.0 is scary to some people, but I honestly think the contrasts between the two neighborhoods will become less obvious over time, and not all of the changes will be on the Uptown side of Irving Park Road.

[Chicago76]

Originally Posted by Aleking

Of course, racial demographics in America are changing. I just think that progressive groups in Uptown are active enough that the neighborhood will remain the lone bastion of social services and affordable housing on the northside...and for that reason it will always be labeled sketchy.

I might have simplified things a bit with Lakeview 2.0 in 15 years, but the rapid gentrification writing is on the wall. Those activist groups were basically a coalition of Appalachians, Hispanics, and African American community organizations. The last remnants of the hillbilly population pulled out in the 80s, which is why the white population dropped from 47% to 39%. They got replaced predominantly by Hispanics and AAs. Since then the white population moving in has been decidely less poor and much more professional. The white pop has increased from 39% in 1990 to 42% in 2000 to 52% in 2010. Those organizations still exist (even the Jesus People), but they are increasingly relying upon a shrinking minority population. Loyola did a study on affordable/below market housing in the area and found that the overwhelming majority (95+% is inhabited by Hispanics and African Americans).

If the minority, poor, and working class elements are declining, those community groups/social services organizations won't have the clout they did before. Shiller understood this and quit before she got beat. There are just too many factors going against the area for the status quo to remain:

-it's surrounded by more fully gentrified neighborhoods on all sides (unlike a Pilsen, Avondale, etc.)
-good and varied building stock (unlike the near west side, where things will need to be built from parking lots around Ashland).
-nice retail potential in a seedy environment along Broadway (like Wicker Park c. 1998)
-demographics that are actually more solidly middle class today than areas like Wicker Park were around 2000.
-train access.

It might not be frat central in 10-15 years, but the area is going to look an awful lot like WP on the upswing in the mid 00s or Lakeview in the early/mid 90s before the remaining bit of character was drained from it.

[lenniel]

Originally Posted by Aleking

incredibly unlikely

With shiller gone and the new alderman in, I think he's going to cater more to the business and development community than the social services community. I believe he's already started to make some changes in that direction.

The bottom line is, businesses and people will not invest (at least to the extent you see in most of the areas that surround Uptown) in an area they deem unsafe or bad for business/living. If things start changing quicker there, then realestate will explode through the roof b/c it's an absolute prime lakefront location that developers would love to build up if they could get the ROI they need.

[Aleking]

Originally Posted by lenniel

With shiller gone and the new alderman in, I think he's going to cater more to the business and development community than the social services community. I believe he's already started to make some changes in that direction.

The bottom line is, businesses and people will not invest (at least to the extent you see in most of the areas that surround Uptown) in an area they deem unsafe or bad for business/living. If things start changing quicker there, then realestate will explode through the roof b/c it's an absolute prime lakefront location that developers would love to build up if they could get the ROI they need.

I get it but I think you are missing my point. Uptown's non-poor, non-social service dependant residents do themselves a disservice by failing to patronize the businesses that do give Uptown a shot (how many restaurant closings this year 4, 5, 6?), taking their money outside the ward, and hyping up every minor urban crime that doesn't even remotely impact their life.

Developers aren't going to magically flood into Uptown because Cappleman decided to kick a few dozen poor people out of Lakeview, they'll come in when they see businesses thriving despite the trouble makers. There are thriving businesses on sketchy and dirty blocks of Humboldt and Logan and it's that kind of organic support that has made the area one of the hottest areas in the city for business growth.