Chicago on pace for fewest murders since 1965

[marothisu]

I think what Chet is saying is that the south side's population is decreasing by a lot, so even though homicides go down, the rates may not necessarily be going down as much (if at all) as you may think. If he's not saying that, then it's still a good point. Now I want to try and estimate it.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I think what Chet is saying is that the south side's population is decreasing by a lot, so even though homicides go down, the rates may not necessarily be going down as much (if at all) as you may think. If he's not saying that, then it's still a good point. Now I want to try and estimate it.

If the population is increasing and homicides are decreasing, then the rate is obviously decreasing.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

If the population is increasing and homicides are decreasing, then the rate is obviously decreasing.

We're talking about the south side. The population of the south side is decreasing.....Overall for the city? Yeah, the rate is decreasing, but there may be areas of the city/south side where it's not or it's staying the same even if the raw numbers are decreasing.

For example, if we have an area with a population of 50,000 and 25 homicides one year and then awhile later the population is 30,000 with 16 homicides, the year with 16 homicides actually has a greater per 100 rate (50 vs 53.3)

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

We're talking about the south side. The population of the south side is decreasing.....Overall for the city? Yeah, the rate is decreasing, but there may be areas of the city/south side where it's not or it's staying the same even if the raw numbers are decreasing.

For example, if we have an area with a population of 50,000 and 25 homicides one year and then awhile later the population is 30,000 with 16 homicides, the year with 16 homicides actually has a greater per 100 rate (50 vs 53.3)

Ok, I didn't catch that you were focusing on specific areas, I was talking about the city as a whole. It is very likely that homicide rates are increasing in a few areas, while decreasing even more in most of the city.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I think what Chet is saying is that the south side's population is decreasing by a lot, so even though homicides go down, the rates may not necessarily be going down as much (if at all) as you may think. If he's not saying that, then it's still a good point. Now I want to try and estimate it.

The military term for this is "a deficit of targets" like back in the first Gulf War after they bombed the beejeeezus out of anything that moved and then were plunking guys running for the border in Chevy Caprices with multi-million dollar weapons systems. To paraphrase the US president at the time "not a prudent use of resources"...

[MassVt]

1965 is roughly the first year when the postwar Baby Boomers came of age, and even now the youngest boomers are around age 50, so I doubt that this contingent is committing much "physical" crime.

White collar crime, well....that may be another story.....