What kind of winter will it be? (Chicago: purchase, cabin)

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by flamadiddle

I believe there will be some snow and some freezing temps. Other than that, I don't think meteorologists could predict their way out of a paper bag.

Bingo!

Even Skilling has been slipping the last few years.

[equipt31]

The Farmer's almanac predicts another cold/brutal winter (last year was not normal or mild by any means). These guys are about as accurate as you can get, historically they've been pretty spot on:
Old Farmer's Almanac predicts 'super cold' winter | abc7chicago.com

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by equipt31

The Farmer's almanac predicts another cold/brutal winter (last year was not normal or mild by any means). These guys are about as accurate as you can get, historically they've been pretty spot on:
Old Farmer's Almanac predicts 'super cold' winter | abc7chicago.com

My understanding is that the Farmer's Almanac has a terrible record of weather predictions.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...cal_track.html

Here's a quote:
"An NPR analysis earlier this year found that the historical accuracy of both Almanacs (they differ little in skill) is about as good as a certain Pennsylvanian groundhog—correct less than half of the time. That means you’d have more luck betting against either Almanac than trusting one. In fact, Farmers’ Almanac’s call for an “oppressive” summer 2014 was “laughably wrong,” according to Samenow."

[Attrill]

While it's impossible to give a very accurate forecast, one thing that is a good indicator of what the winter will be like in general is El Nino. This year looks to be a strong El Nino, which generally means a milder winter.

That said, weather patterns for the last few winters were royally screwed up. Last winter when we were having our polar vortex days, Fairbanks Alaska was regularly seeing temps about 30-40 degrees above normal and they almost had to cancel the Iditarod for lack of snow. Everything is so screwed up nowadays that it's hard to say.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Attrill

This year looks to be a strong El Nino, which generally means a milder winter.

Well that would be nice.

However, I'm sure there is still a very strong chance of storm events being exaggerated by local TV weather forecasters.

[rzzz]

In California the predictions for a strong El Niño have changed to a chance of a weak El Niño.

[Ace Rothstein]

Nobody can predict how an entire season will turn out with any sort of consistency. Any forecast outside of just a few days isn't going to be very accurate.

As for the local meteorologists, they do a pretty good job. People forget how large the viewing area is and just because they aren't seeing the predicted weather doesn't mean that others in the viewing area aren't seeing the predicted weather.

[TheSunshineKid]

A cold one. Ahhh refreshing.

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by equipt31

The Farmer's almanac predicts another cold/brutal winter (last year was not normal or mild by any means). These guys are about as accurate as you can get, historically they've been pretty spot on:
Old Farmer's Almanac predicts 'super cold' winter | abc7chicago.com

Accurate as you can get?? Then they're right everyone rushes to marvel at their abilities. When they're wrong people shrug and say "well you can never really predict the weather".

The farmers almanac really has no solid track record at all. They just look at overall patterns and try to guess like every other meterologist. Some are right and some are wrong.

[flamadiddle]

Originally Posted by Steve-o

Bingo!

Even Skilling has been slipping the last few years.

heh, anyone remember John Coleman?



"Weather Man" is the greatest job in the world. You can be wrong most of the time and people just expect it...

I'd like to be able to design a computer network and tell the client, based on my calculations, there's a 50% chance that this is going to work!