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30 years? That it just a ridiculous statement - people without kids (or not even dating...) could very well be grandparents in 30 years!
Transit planners have a hard time getting things correct for 5 year plans...
Bluntly, any body that resorts to an unrealistic time frame shows just how pie-in-the-sky their fantasies are...
It's not a ridiculous timeframe at all. Look at it this way: it took roughly 30 years to get to a point where the vast majority of middle class families left the cities (45 to 75). That was stemmed from city problems, highways, job sprawl, etc. I'm not saying everyone is going to move back to the cities. What I am saying is that a large enough proportion of people will move back to form kind of an inverted doughnut where the wealthy/mobile live both on the outskirts and in the central portion of cities with outlying city neighborhoods and inner suburbs left to rot.
We're already seeing it. It started with the larger high profile cities 30 years ago, which are in an entirely different place today. A critical mass forms there and it lowers barriers for others looking to jump in because they have more of the amenities they want. There is a pile on effect and then other neighborhoods experience the same as prices go up. The most adventurous 5% pave the way, build up amenities and safety, and the next thing you know the state of the neighborhood opens things up for the most adventurous 20%.
We're seeing the same thing now in mid-tier cities. It's just a couple of decades off in time frame. I live in St. Louis now, and people here are concerned about gentrification. It's somewhat misguided because things change more slowly here. You aren't going to see a bunch of national high profile, high end retailers suddenly spring up in a neighborhood overnight like a Wicker Park. There isn't the same level of development pressure, but it's been building slowly over time since the early 90s. There is a pretty good sized pocket of St. Louis today where white collar professionals and reasonably well off retirees are the predominant groups (Central corridor and much of the inner portions of South City). Many of those areas were extremely poor 20 years ago. The barriers to raising kids in those areas and the barriers for many professionals looking for a relatively safe neighborhood with urban amenities has gone way down. There are still pockets of crime and poverty in certain parts of these city zones, but what is happening is that these areas are being developed on all sides and the "desirable" areas are merging. That's just going to make more people comfortable about the prospect of moving there and the pile on effect continues.
You'll never see things like basic manufacturing and large distribution return to the central cities, but the vast majority of employees in those industries aren't HSR's target market. We are seeing the more high paying fields recognizing the value of a downtown location. In Indy, Eli Lilly is working to develop condos and apartments to attract younger workers that they believe they're losing out on to other cities. Rolls Royce Aircraft is moving their North American Headquarters downtown. The number of college educated working age people living in and around downtown Indy has more than doubled in the last 15 years. It's a much easier sell for that demographic today than it was 15 years ago. With all sorts of land and buildings available for rehab in these areas, I doubt that number stagnates over the next 30 years.
I actually think the midwest has ideal distances for HSR. The most popular bullet train is Osaka/Tokyo which is about the same distance as Cleveland to Chicago. In the NW corridor the distances are short enough for regular trains to be acceptable.
I actually think the midwest has ideal distances for HSR. The most popular bullet train is Osaka/Tokyo which is about the same distance as Cleveland to Chicago. In the NW corridor the distances are short enough for regular trains to be acceptable.
...then MAYBE you would have a point. Unfortunately, it is clearly NOT just the distance -- as pretty much everyone, includes the advocates of HSR acknowledge, the critical factors include DENSITY, lifestyle and some sort of compelling reason to get to the proposed destination via rail.
In Japan the infrastructure is not just the HSR rail itself but the things INSIDE each cities core...
It's not a ridiculous timeframe at all. Look at it this way: it took roughly 30 years to get to a point where the vast majority of middle class families left the cities (45 to 75). That was stemmed from city problems, highways, job sprawl, etc. I'm not saying everyone is going to move back to the cities. What I am saying is that a large enough proportion of people will move back to form kind of an inverted doughnut where the wealthy/mobile live both on the outskirts and in the central portion of cities with outlying city neighborhoods and inner suburbs left to rot.
We're already seeing it. It started with the larger high profile cities 30 years ago, which are in an entirely different place today. A critical mass forms there and it lowers barriers for others looking to jump in because they have more of the amenities they want. There is a pile on effect and then other neighborhoods experience the same as prices go up. The most adventurous 5% pave the way, build up amenities and safety, and the next thing you know the state of the neighborhood opens things up for the most adventurous 20%.
We're seeing the same thing now in mid-tier cities. It's just a couple of decades off in time frame. I live in St. Louis now, and people here are concerned about gentrification. It's somewhat misguided because things change more slowly here. You aren't going to see a bunch of national high profile, high end retailers suddenly spring up in a neighborhood overnight like a Wicker Park. There isn't the same level of development pressure, but it's been building slowly over time since the early 90s. There is a pretty good sized pocket of St. Louis today where white collar professionals and reasonably well off retirees are the predominant groups (Central corridor and much of the inner portions of South City). Many of those areas were extremely poor 20 years ago. The barriers to raising kids in those areas and the barriers for many professionals looking for a relatively safe neighborhood with urban amenities has gone way down. There are still pockets of crime and poverty in certain parts of these city zones, but what is happening is that these areas are being developed on all sides and the "desirable" areas are merging. That's just going to make more people comfortable about the prospect of moving there and the pile on effect continues.
You'll never see things like basic manufacturing and large distribution return to the central cities, but the vast majority of employees in those industries aren't HSR's target market. We are seeing the more high paying fields recognizing the value of a downtown location. In Indy, Eli Lilly is working to develop condos and apartments to attract younger workers that they believe they're losing out on to other cities. Rolls Royce Aircraft is moving their North American Headquarters downtown. The number of college educated working age people living in and around downtown Indy has more than doubled in the last 15 years. It's a much easier sell for that demographic today than it was 15 years ago. With all sorts of land and buildings available for rehab in these areas, I doubt that number stagnates over the next 30 years.
There is no denying that shifts in population will happen, what I dispute is that any certainity that such shifts will actually work as a positive force for the advocates of HSR.
I mean the simple fact is things like roads can be "on the drawing boards" for decades put the actual construction rarely takes more than three years or so. Take a look at the history of I-355. The "route" was essentially secured / protected in the mid 1960s, basically alongside Rt 53 / Rowlwing Rd. That land say unused for most of 3 decades until funding was identified. The decision to make the road part of the Illinois Toll Highway system accomplished a few goals, including the persuasion of a unit of statewide government and prevention of an "asset sale" as other states did with their tollways.
Construction started in 1986 and the road opened to traffic in 1989. The 17 miles or so were not cheap by any means, with a cost per mile well right up their with things like Troup-Howell Bridge, but the revenue on a vehicles per day basis could be argued as sustainable...
The problem with HSR is not just that the upfront costs are enormous (think 10s if not 100s of BILLIONS) but the operational costs are staggering -- the reason places like Japan and France can even run their trains are becuase of existing nuclear power that subsidizes the power needed...
The dismal ability of politicians to really grasp the costs structure of long term debt of any kind makes this a complete non-starter.
...then MAYBE you would have a point. Unfortunately, it is clearly NOT just the distance -- as pretty much everyone, includes the advocates of HSR acknowledge, the critical factors include DENSITY, lifestyle and some sort of compelling reason to get to the proposed destination via rail.
In Japan the infrastructure is not just the HSR rail itself but the things INSIDE each cities core...
Yes. In reality the great lakes cities will continue to empty out and the rich Chinese who own them will use the scrap to build their own HSR trains in China and their colonies in California.
Yes. In reality the great lakes cities will continue to empty out and the rich Chinese who own them will use the scrap to build their own HSR trains in China and their colonies in California.
...I suppose that unless you are completely there is no certainty to the "dominance" of the Chinese as either 'product developers' or 'investors'.
Roughly thirty years ago when firms like Panasonic, Mitsubishi and Sony were absolutely CRUSHING the domestic consumer electronics firms while Toyota, Nissan and Honda were divvying up the market for autos a whole lot of people assumed that the only "hope" for blue collar workers was to learn how to bow to hatagashira -- Gung Ho (1986) - IMDb
If the "connected" firms get behind HSR it will be built regardless of how ineffective it may be in doing anything than lining the pockets of the firms that get paid for it...
How entertaining would it have been if the Jetsons had had high-speed Internet instead of flying cars? Judy tweets cat videos; Elroy watches porn. ... Tech visionary Ray Kurzweil predicted medical research would have largely beaten cancer by 2009. It took even me a while to see the point of texting.
Why? Sometimes, like with cancer research, it’s because we just can’t predict how long developments will take. More often it’s because it’s always easy to misread the market. Inherent coolness notwithstanding, the success of any innovation relies on economics and infrastructure.
Last edited by chet everett; 12-04-2014 at 03:48 PM..
There is no denying that shifts in population will happen, what I dispute is that any certainity that such shifts will actually work as a positive force for the advocates of HSR.
I mean the simple fact is things like roads can be "on the drawing boards" for decades put the actual construction rarely takes more than three years or so. Take a look at the history of I-355. The "route" was essentially secured / protected in the mid 1960s, basically alongside Rt 53 / Rowlwing Rd. That land say unused for most of 3 decades until funding was identified. The decision to make the road part of the Illinois Toll Highway system accomplished a few goals, including the persuasion of a unit of statewide government and prevention of an "asset sale" as other states did with their tollways.
Construction started in 1986 and the road opened to traffic in 1989. The 17 miles or so were not cheap by any means, with a cost per mile well right up their with things like Troup-Howell Bridge, but the revenue on a vehicles per day basis could be argued as sustainable...
The problem with HSR is not just that the upfront costs are enormous (think 10s if not 100s of BILLIONS) but the operational costs are staggering -- the reason places like Japan and France can even run their trains are becuase of existing nuclear power that subsidizes the power needed...
The dismal ability of politicians to really grasp the costs structure of long term debt of any kind makes this a complete non-starter.
The shifts will no doubt be positive, the question you're really asking is will HSR happen. An urban environment with a sufficient number of potential HSR users will occur in more urban areas over time. Actual implementation, the price of alternative fuels or gas, and air traffic congestion 30 years out and how that aligns with political will is the more speculative aspect.
There is actually a good deal of support for the proposal in Ohio and Indiana (see the last article). I think there may be some demand for it as the OSU exports many graduates to Chicago, who will in turn have family back in OH, etc. I really hope that's not the only reason for the proposal though. Also, it transverses a larger part of heavily-populated Northwest Indiana than the Cleveland proposal. It also stops in Fort Wayne, a relatively large city. These factors may or may not make up for bypassing Indy. Still, I'm not sure how economically feasible it would be based on the totality of the circumstances.
High-Speed Rail from Chicago to Cincinnati - You thoughts?
Who wants to go to Cincinnati?
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If it was JUST distance...
there is no certainty to the "dominance" of the Chinese as either 'product developers' or 'investors'.
