Which official census will have Chicago (in its current boundaries) go past its peak? (Lincoln: neighborhoods, tax)

[OyCrumbler]

The peak official census population was 3,620,962. When, if ever, do you think Chicago will pass this within its current boundaries? If you have an idea for this, why?

[Clark&Addison]

I voted 2070 but honestly not sure if it ever will. The way the city is built out there would need to be tons of redevelopment to add another million+ people, plus the cities population is currently in decline.

[compactspace]

Depends on when the city fixes its finances and its crime. Could be as close as 2030 but probably not.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by compactspace

Depends on when the city fixes its finances and its crime. Could be as close as 2030 but probably not.

I'm hoping we cross 3,000,000 by 2030, lol. Getting to 3,600,000+ will probably be 2050/2060. I'm sure climate change will also drive some people to the Great Lakes region, so obviously Chicago's population growth will benefit from that. We may also continue to benefit from brain drain in neighboring states/corporate relocations.

[beaniemac]

not happening if the city continues to tax the **** outta the current population that lives here.

[Chicago South Sider]

Not gonna happen.

[emathias]

I'm not sure it will ever surpass its peak. If it does, it probably will be closer to 2100 than any time sooner.

If you split the city into four pieces, one of 1 million people, growing at about 11% per decade, one of 500,000 people, growing at 1/2% per year, one of 500,000 shrinking at 1/2% per year, and one of the remainder as of year 2000 of 895,000, shrinking at about 23% per decade, you end up with a model that would pass 3.6 million between 2085 and 2090.

That's a pretty simplistic model, but it takes into account that parts are growing and parts are shrinking.

Another way to do it would be to simply extrapolate the 2000-2010 rates of change. This is a funny exercise eventually because the extreme rates of growth from a small starting point for the downtown neighborhoods ends up giving the Near South Side by itself a population of over 30 million by 2100.

If we cap the top three growing neighborhoods, or reduce their growth rate at various points, we actually end up with a shrinking city in perpetuity. I don't think that's going to happen, either. The trick is figuring out which neighborhoods will grow again, now that gentrification is completed in more areas. I think that places like Lincoln Park and Lakeview shrank 2000-2010, but will show growth 2010-2020. Extrapolating the 2010-2020 numbers might give us a more realistic long-term trendline.

Another model would be to expect the growth to expand from the central city over time, so the ring around downtown that shows low percent shrinkage this time, may show low percentage growth next census. We could then assume that those growth rings will ripple across the city over the next decades. Once could create a model from that and come up with interesting estimates. At any rate, a lot will depend on immigration, too. Immigrant neighborhoods are, as a rule, denser than non-immigrant neighborhoods. So if immigration dries up would could increase households and still show a loss of population in some neighborhoods. To return to growth in those areas, the demographic change will have to completely play out first. I think that's why places like Lincoln Park and West Town may show growth next census even though they shrunk in the last one. But places like Humboldt Park and Lawndale are early in gentrification, so will lose a lot of population before they start growing again. Their households may increase, even, but their total population will not. Places like Bridgeport will probably grown, and the places that hit rock bottom will grow - much of Bronzeville probably falls into that category, and maybe East Garfield Park.

So, yeah, 2100 is when Chicago will eclipse its previous peak, in my opinion, barring some huge loosening of immigration rules or demographic change to larger families.

[andrew61]

If it ever does happen, I don't expect to see it in my lifetime (I'm mid-50s now).

[OyCrumbler]

Originally Posted by andrew61

If it ever does happen, I don't expect to see it in my lifetime (I'm mid-50s now).

You're only about a fifth of the way through, Andy.

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

The peak official census population was 3,620,962. When, if ever, do you think Chicago will pass this within its current boundaries? If you have an idea for this, why?

Can you link to the current census population? or even the peak one? It's hard to answer your question without knowing what year we peaked and where we are now...