Is South Shore on the come up? (Chicago, Highland: middle-class, renters)

[EddieOlSkool]

I hear this from some people in Hyde Park. They say the time to buy is now because South Shore is the next Hyde Park.

I am not buying it.

[noid_1985]

Perhaps as investment property, but not to live. They’re probably banking on the presidential library driving the prices of the properties higher. Woodlawn will also benefit from the library being near by and has more two flats and single family dwellings compared to South Shore.

[dlong1991]

I think South Shore is looking good for the long term. It's going to be a slow burn due to how far it is from downtown. It has alot going for it. Neighborhood architecture is beautiful, close to the lake, great parks, University of Chicago. I wish the CTA trains were more expansive on the South Side, but as a car owner and life long Chicago area resident...I've been keeping an eye on property in that area.

[PerseusVeil]

South Shore, once thriving, struggles amid economic erosion and crime - Chicago Tribune

[Slats Grobnick]

Bronzeville and Woodlawn would have to gentrify before South Shore comes up.

So I say, no.

[Alacran]

Yes.

[BRU67]

I would exercise extreme caution. First of all, you should never buy a property assuming it's going to gentrify. If you're buying a multi-unit you need to make sure that it cash flows and you can get good tenants. If you're buying a single-family home or condo you need to make sure that property values are going up.

Otherwise it just makes sense to rent. It takes a lot of capital to get into and maintain a property and it is very difficult to get out of it if you end up in a declining market situation. So why bother to buy in a questionable market? That makes no sense.

People have been talking about the South Shore for some time but it is still a very high crime area and it never fulfilled the hype, even during the housing boom. It is not well served by public transit, and the demographics are almost 100% low income African American (outside of a few higher-income pocket such as Jackson Park Highlands) so you need to make sure you'd be comfortable with that. If you like diversity this probably isn't your place.

I would be concerned about what kind of tenants I would be getting in a multi- unit and what would happen in long-term appreciation on a non-cash flow asset (SFH or condo). Personally, I think there are better places to invest in the city.

[EddieOlSkool]

What largely Black neighborhood in Chicago has really ever gentrified anyway?

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by EddieOlSkool

What largely Black neighborhood in Chicago has really ever gentrified anyway?

None thus far, though investors may be buying in the part of East Garfield Park north of I-290. And there's clear pressure on the northwest side of the Near West Side community area between the United Center and EGP due to rapid development in the West Loop.

However, this will be more developer dependent than in areas which have gentrified organically like West Town, Logan Square, Pilsen and East Humboldt Park. In other words, developers are going to have to build or renovate properties with high end finishes, amenities and, most importantly, high security to appeal to middle-class buyers and renters. People who might be willing to take a measure of risk (mitigated by security measures sufficient to make them feel safe of course) to have those extra things at a much lower price point than the West Loop or West Town.

You're not going to see cool hipster fashion leaders, artists and students moving into cheap properties in these 'hoods and creating a funky chic creative vibe. They're too dangerous and lack the vibrant working class charm that draw these first-wave gentrifiers in the first place. Why would you move to a scary looking block in East Garfield Park with boarded-up buildings, empty lots littered with trash, open air drug dealing, and regular gang shootings when you could just move a couple miles south to Little Village and not have to deal with that nearly as much?

So I don't think any predominantly African-American Chicago neighborhoods are going to gentrify any time soon. I can see those two neighborhoods I mentioned developing and improving, but it will be through a different process than gentrification. If it happens for the South Shore it will be the same way. But will the Obama Library be sufficient to create that developer interest? I've my doubts but we'll see.

For that reason, amateur investors tempted by these areas should beware. For one, professional investors who are well funded and know what they're doing may be sniffing around there, and they might be getting to good properties before they even hit the MLS. That means that pricing might not be in line with true present value, and properties that sophisticated investors have passed on may not be viable.

Second, even if you can get a good property for a good price, you might not be able to afford to offer the kind of amenities and security that good renters will be looking for to compensate for and mitigate against the risk and general inconvenience that they will be dealing with by living in those high-crime areas. Your professional investor competition will be able to offer these things, leaving you on the lower end of the tenant food chain, which is usually not a good place to be in neighborhoods like this.

[Slats Grobnick]

Originally Posted by EddieOlSkool

What largely Black neighborhood in Chicago has really ever gentrified anyway?

South Loop