Will Chicago's population pass 3 million by the 2030 census?

[KoNgFooCj]

Originally Posted by BRU67

I think there's no chance in hades it hits 3 million. Chicago will prosper but it'll be in the white collar professional sector, which means smaller households. Your growth projections seem optimistic but not totally unreasonable if we can continue to grow the Loop job market. If we want numbers growth, the City and state will focus on bringing good paying blue collar jobs here. There seems to be little desire to do that in this deep "blue" area, and it might be tough to do anyway with our tax climate and employer unfriendly workers' compensation and other laws.

I hear ya. Not by 2040 if ever. Id say there's a 1% chance of 3 million by 2030 and a 35% chance by 2040. The mayor wants the city back to 3 million. Only way that can happen and even exceed that number is to fill in this city and pack it as dense as possible everywhere. I mean every square mile of the city like in NY. The city should even aspire to break it's record of 3.65 million. I see that as pretty unlikely not for lack of future housing, but higher taxes and rents.

[personone]

Likely. One of the greatest cities in terms of infrastructure. Booming and thriving core. Hopefully there will be a turnaround in some of the neighborhoods that have been depressed. It may not, but there is definitely a chance.

[CCrest182]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

I hear ya. Not by 2040 if ever. Id say there's a 1% chance of 3 million by 2030 and a 35% chance by 2040. The mayor wants the city back to 3 million. Only way that can happen and even exceed that number is to fill in this city and pack it as dense as possible everywhere. I mean every square mile of the city like in NY. The city should even aspire to break it's record of 3.65 million. I see that as pretty unlikely not for lack of future housing, but higher taxes and rents.

The only way the city will stop its population loss is if it stops taxing middle class residents out and slashes the bloated public sector. Completely cut unnecessary public jobs, and cut pay to existing public jobs. Which unfortunately, after seeing Lightfoot's caving to the CTU, I don't see this happening anytime soon.

As long as the unions run the show in Chicago, expect population decline to continue.

[Koji7]

Originally Posted by CCrest182

The only way the city will stop its population loss is if it stops taxing middle class residents out and slashes the bloated public sector. Completely cut unnecessary public jobs, and cut pay to existing public jobs. Which unfortunately, after seeing Lightfoot's caving to the CTU, I don't see this happening anytime soon.

As long as the unions run the show in Chicago, expect population decline to continue.

I agree with this post I’m not a resident of Chicago but I did live in the metro years ago and my Aunt lived in the city I think on Kimball St or Ave. Once Chicago changes a bit I see no boundaries to growth. To those who say nah...the weather is horrible and cold hasn’t been there for the rest of the year.

[CCrest182]

Originally Posted by Koji7

I agree with this post I’m not a resident of Chicago but I did live in the metro years ago and my Aunt lived in the city I think on Kimball St or Ave. Once Chicago changes a bit I see no boundaries to growth. To those who say nah...the weather is horrible and cold hasn’t been there for the rest of the year.

Exactly, the weather means absolutely nothing, or plays an extremely minuscule role in people leaving. It's easy to tell this because the biggest places Chicago transplants head to are Madison, Minneapolis, Grand Rapids, Cedar Rapids....... all of which are just as cold, if not colder than Chicago.

[Peer79]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

2017 estimates have Chicago up from the 2010 census—not up much, but not a loss so that’s one point where it seems to differ from people arguing there is a net loss.

Part of the state’s woes has been from the continuous infighting and standstill—that has been cited repeatedly by credit agencies in credit downgrade issued in the past few years. That means paying up more interest on debt which is a vicious cycle. Pritzker may not turn out to be a great governor, but at the very least this portends an end to stalled state government and I argue that an inefficient government is still better than a stalled government.

And for those big on counting, 2030 is eleven years away, not ten and the reference day for the census is usually a few months into the year.

I disagree. I don't think government is the solution to this state's problems, rather it is the cause of and continued source of our problems. I would rather have a stalled government than an "inefficient" government which will only make things worse (i.e. endlessly raising taxes and continuing to drive people out).

[jfre81]

The real question to me is whether 2030 comes and I'll still be on a Blue Line train crawling out of the tunnel at 10 mph coming out of the Logan station heading into the Loop, and it still takes 30 minutes to get there.

[aga412]

Originally Posted by jfre81

The real question to me is whether 2030 comes and I'll still be on a Blue Line train crawling out of the tunnel at 10 mph coming out of the Logan station heading into the Loop, and it still takes 30 minutes to get there.

The random slowness of the Blue Line is a definite trigger of mine.

[OyCrumbler]

Is that slow zone work on the Blue Line or what?

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

Is that slow zone work on the Blue Line or what?

Much of it is, yes. There's work on, among other things, increasing the electrical capacity of the entire line. Basically what they have is maxed out. The frequency of trains you see at rush hour and during Lollapalooza/Bears games or whatever major event, that's literally as much as it can handle. There's a ceiling on the speed and frequency and they pretty much hit it then.
That's the only way I could understand how slow it comes out of the Logan tunnel like that.

I'm aware that what they're doing is going to make things better in the future, and not necessarily the far off future. Same with the Belmont flyover that will make the Red Line crawl through the North Side less onerous. All the better if we don't have another half million people crowd into here making it obsolete out of the box like the infrastructure built in Sun Belt boomtowns.