The Next “Hot” Neighborhood (Chicago, Schaumburg: section 8, lofts, credit card)

[dtcbnd03]

More proof that remote work or work from home is here to stay. This will greatly impact city life and "hot" hoods:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN24N2NL

[fusillirob1983]

I think it may depend on the industry. My company's in no hurry to get everyone back in the office. Jobs I've interviewed for still seem to be using some reliance on occasional office use, they're asking me about how their office works for my commute compared to my current company, etc, but they've all typically been doing some portion of their work remotely since mid-March.

I can see a situation in which there's a shift away from employees worrying about keeping a 1 or 2 day a week commute really short, or keeping the office walking distance or only a couple EL stops, etc. because suddenly they're not doing it as frequently, and they may also now benefit being a bit further out with more space for a home office. It may be too early to tell, but it wouldn't surprise me if, as many here are saying, there's a small shift out of Chicago to the suburbs but that Chicago based companies don't suddenly start hiring people that live in rural areas hours from their office.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

100% agree with everything you've said.

Needing a car to run errands to big box stores or go eat at Chili's is about the saddest existence I can imagine. The suburbs were great for the schools. Once my kids were through high school, we high tailed it to the city.

Went back to Naperville a few Saturdays ago, and while the downtown area is still very nice, I hated having to drive and park when going there. It's also just so overly laced with competition.

It's going to be hard for those who are loudly proclaiming that black lives matter to justify those types of moves to the suburbs. One cannot say that with a straight face and then pack up and move to a suburb with majority white schools! So that longstanding driver of suburban moves will hopefully change.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

Humans have been congregating in cities for centuries, actually for millenniums. The main reason suburbs flourished in America is because there was massive government intervention (GI loan and interstate program) coupled with white flight. A virus that millions of Americans think is not serious isn't going to change hundreds of years of human behavior. I don't see it happening.

I want to leave politics out of this and I do not endorse either side of this particular debate. But I do have to point out that Democrats have been seeking to encourage people to move back into urban centers in more recent times. So if we get a Biden Administration and Democratic Senate, you will probably see punitive taxes that negatively impact suburban dwellers, at least to some extent. Things like per-mile road use taxes, high motor fuel taxes, tolls to enter and park in big cities, and, in general, higher gasoline prices to hasten our conversion to green energy (taxes and elimination of subsidies that keep it cheap for us).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/here...our-taxes.html

*Most important words to note in the article = “Use taxes as a tool to address extreme concentrations of income and wealth inequality,” the task force wrote in their policy plan."

Again, a lot of cards up in the air here. That's why I keep saying it's just too early to crack open the piggy bank and put every last dime into a Bolingbrook town home to get ahead of the big surge.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

The back to the city trend isn't an American trend exclusively. Gentrification didn't even start in the US. There will always be a market for the burbs. There are many middle aged people with kids who have been moving to the burbs for decades, this is nothing new, but I don't see young people choosing the burbs over cities. I just don't.

Oh absolutely. Gentrification has occurred all over the world, and for centuries. The wiki entry points out that it was first observed in 3rd Century Rome and Roman Britain. But just like the U.S. implemented policy to encourage moves to the suburbs in the 1950s through the 1970s, it can implement policy to encourage moves back to cities too. That's all I'm saying.

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

Humans have been congregating in cities for centuries, actually for millenniums. The main reason suburbs flourished in America is because there was massive government intervention (GI loan and interstate program) coupled with white flight. A virus that millions of Americans think is not serious isn't going to change hundreds of years of human behavior. I don't see it happening.

People will stay in cities. But not the big expensive ones. I've yet to read one article about booming demand for apartment rentals in the city. Anyone know the crane count in Chicago right now? I bet it's very low.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/real-esta...202112129.html

"I’ve noticed more calls about folks wanting to get out of their small apartment and getting a place with a yard”

"I was surprised by the number,” said Lisa Kolton, a social worker in Montclair, in New Jersey, who got an offer for more than $160,000 above her asking price in less than a week. Kolton said she believed that COVID-19, which has made roomier homes with backyards in the suburbs more appealing, was motivating city-dwelling buyers."

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

I don't think they need to do that, the trend is already there. I've heard some urban planners say that they prefer cities to suburbs because it's more economical to have a population in a dense area than spread out. It makes sense, spending money to build and maintain roads, infrastructure for a smaller population spread out costs more money. Detroit has been trying to consolidate blocks for years. Can't say I blame them. Saves the city money and resources.

They might not need to, but I bet they do! If given a chance.

[dlong1991]

I don't think theres going to be a giant exodus, but we are talking "hot" neighborhoods. Chicago already has half a dozen neighborhoods that are considered "hot" that aren't even close to being at a critical mass. We all know what they are. Pilsen, Avondale, Little Village, McKinley Park, Bridgeport, Uptown, Rogers Park (Wicker Park and Logan Square are way past this conversation)
People have been talking about Woodlawn and South Shore. Lots of long term investors heading to South Shore right now, including my landlord who is pretty hot on that area and he has bought 2 or 3 properties there in the last year.

Other than that. Nothing is next. It's going to take a long time to reach critical mass in those areas to even start talking about what is "next". And we've all known about those areas for a long time now, and they still aren't close to being gentrified. Cities will always be relevant, everyone knows that. My only argument is the demand isn't going to be anything like we saw over the last 20 years in Chicago. This city is a unique beast. There's not enough artists and hipsters to fill up all those neighborhoods to keep momentum building. I don't think the next 10 years is going to be nearly as good as the last 10 were.

[dlong1991]

Originally Posted by Frugal Audiophile

The worst recession in our history occurred just a little over 10 years ago and we saw massive gentrification.

Not all recessions are equal. The conditions of the last recession made city living even more attractive. 3 flats for 100k in hipster areas isn't happening now like it did back then.

I don't have a crystal ball but the writing is on the wall. The move is to remote work. There's not enough hipsters moving in to replace the yuppies moving out to create new momentum.

I would keep an eye on any news relating to Lincoln Yards or The 78. That's the canary in the coal mine. Can we attract more Corporate relocations, or will companies look to cut overhead costs by beefing up work from home technology?

Let's not forget about the massive amount of debt/pension obligations that will only be recouped via taxation. How in the world can we raise taxes in a state where an estimated 1,628,866 people left for other states from 2014 to 2018?

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by dlong1991

I don't have a crystal ball but the writing is on the wall. The move is to remote work. There's not enough hipsters moving in to replace the yuppies moving out to create new momentum.

I would keep an eye on any news relating to Lincoln Yards or The 78. That's the canary in the coal mine. Can we attract more Corporate relocations, or will companies look to cut overhead costs by beefing up work from home technology?

Exactly. I would not want to be a commercial office landlord right now. They will get crushed in the next 10 years as companies downsize and/or corporations relocate to lower cost mid tier cities. No way the Lincoln Yards happens in the next 10 years.

On the flip side we still have a massive housing shortage across America. Except those houses won't be high rises but more single family homes, walkups and mid rises in lower cost cities. The build up will unfortunately turn into a sprawl (which I don't like...ever been to Houston?)