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Agreed. I saw quite a few young professional Chicagoans who worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city. Heck, I did it myself for over four years. I lived in East Lakeview and endured a horrendous commute to Hoffman Estates because I wanted to live where the action was, and the action available in, say, Schaumburg just didn't quite compare. Now, here in Cleveland, I see people doing the reverse commute thing too.
I thought about it more over the weekend and my verdict is the suburban push isn't going to happen. No way. Young singles are not going to want to live in family suburbs, sorry. There's nothing for them there unless enough of them do it. Berwyn tried a huge marketing campaign to bring in young hipsters and while it managed to attract young couples and empty nesters, it failed almost entirely to attract any young singles. And that city is 18 minutes from downtown by train and is on the Chicago grid. Further flung suburbs will be even less appealing.
They take jobs in the Loop, or, lately, West Loop at Google, McDonalds, etc. not just to drag themselves out of bed in the morning so they can bring home a paycheck but because it's social. Pre-pandemic, the bars and restaurants were packed there after work even mid-week. The firms stressed "work-life balance" and other buzzwords like that. The job is really secondary.
I see that continuing apace once the pandemic scare is over. Sorry suburbanites. One pandemic isn't going to undo what's been happening for 35 years or more now.
I thought about it more over the weekend and my verdict is the suburban push isn't going to happen. No way. Young singles are not going to want to live in family suburbs, sorry. There's nothing for them there unless enough of them do it. Berwyn tried a huge marketing campaign to bring in young hipsters and while it managed to attract young couples and empty nesters, it failed almost entirely to attract any young singles. And that city is 18 minutes from downtown by train and is on the Chicago grid. Further flung suburbs will be even less appealing.
They take jobs in the Loop, or, lately, West Loop at Google, McDonalds, etc. not just to drag themselves out of bed in the morning so they can bring home a paycheck but because it's social. Pre-pandemic, the bars and restaurants were packed there after work even mid-week. The firms stressed "work-life balance" and other buzzwords like that. The job is really secondary.
I see that continuing apace once the pandemic scare is over. Sorry suburbanites. One pandemic isn't going to undo what's been happening for 35 years or more now.
I think some of the trends are regional though. In Chicago, our "suburbs" are truly suburbs in every sense of the word (for the most part). Outside of Evanston and Oak Park, it is not the type of environment a social millenial is really interested in. In the DC area where I'm originally from. The suburbs include a number of "suburbs" that are really just extensions of the city and have been built up (think Evanston or Oak Park, but on a wider scale). LA also has a number of "suburbs" that are filled with young adults because they are really viewed as being more neighborhoods of LA.
Here, our suburbs aren't like that, so you are probably right that there is probably not enough going on there (they aren't built up enough) to draw in young people even post-pandemic.
I feel people here are overreacting about how people will shift from city living to suburbs because of the pandemic. People are saying this now because we are in it now, but once it settles down within a year or two and things go back to "normal" people will be itching for that city life. The issue is we can't really enjoy city life right now to it's full potential. You can enjoy suburbs to it's full potential at the moment, because there wasn't a ton to do in them to begin with.
If you told me the current status quo is going to be how we live life for the next few decades, I could buy the mass exodus. But I see the pandemic as a temporary situation. This pandemic will take up such a small part of our lives in our overall scheme of things.
I see this situation being how people want to leave the region due to winter, but never do. While in winter, so many of us probably complain and ***** about how much we hate it, and so many people say how they are going to move somewhere warm and it's one of our last winters here because they hate the cold and gloomy weather. Some actually do, but most don't. Why? Because once summer comes and they enjoy Chicago summers, they "forget" about Chicago winters. Once this pandemic is over people will also "forget" and realize again how much they enjoy the city and having everything within quick access. People aren't paying high prices because to live in the core center of Chicago because they have to, it's because they want to and appreciate city life. That's not going to change much.
Will cities take a hit? Sure, but only temporarily and it won't last long. But I think it will take a hit from individuals who were probably planning on leaving the city before the pandemic anyway. The pandemic is probably just expediting them to move.
I think some of the trends are regional though. In Chicago, our "suburbs" are truly suburbs in every sense of the word (for the most part). Outside of Evanston and Oak Park, it is not the type of environment a social millenial is really interested in. In the DC area where I'm originally from. The suburbs include a number of "suburbs" that are really just extensions of the city and have been built up (think Evanston or Oak Park, but on a wider scale). LA also has a number of "suburbs" that are filled with young adults because they are really viewed as being more neighborhoods of LA.
Here, our suburbs aren't like that, so you are probably right that there is probably not enough going on there (they aren't built up enough) to draw in young people even post-pandemic.
I agree 100%
There are only 1-2 Chicago suburbs I would ever consider living in. However, in places like LA, DC, Miami, San Francisco and Boston, their neighboring suburbs/towns are just as dense and vibrant as the city itself. Chicago doesn't have that. I would have no issue living in Alexandria, VA, Cambridge, MA or Santa Monica, CA. Our suburbs are suburbs in the purest form.
Last edited by thinkertinker; 07-29-2020 at 05:15 PM..
I think some of the trends are regional though. In Chicago, our "suburbs" are truly suburbs in every sense of the word (for the most part). Outside of Evanston and Oak Park, it is not the type of environment a social millenial is really interested in. In the DC area where I'm originally from. The suburbs include a number of "suburbs" that are really just extensions of the city and have been built up (think Evanston or Oak Park, but on a wider scale). LA also has a number of "suburbs" that are filled with young adults because they are really viewed as being more neighborhoods of LA.
Here, our suburbs aren't like that, so you are probably right that there is probably not enough going on there (they aren't built up enough) to draw in young people even post-pandemic.
I was pretty involved in the community in Berwyn until I sold my house in 2014 and it was very frustrating. No matter the attributes - 18 minutes from downtown, a brick house with a garage and yard for less than a condo in Logan Square, urban vibe and a little grit, etc. - a hipster will recoil and scream like you just threw battery acid at him if you mention a (708) area code or, God forbid, a Metra train. I mean, you might as well ride to work in a minivan at that point.
Many of the arguments on here assume that people live to work, not work to live, if that makes any sense. Perhaps reasonable to think if you're older and from a different generation, but that's not how today's young people think. That's why the city flight hypothesis is simply going to fail, bottom line. I'd bet a lot of money on it.
To answer the question in this thread, I think Irving Park and Portage Park will be the next big ones.
I would say Avondale is the middle of it, while Logan Square is almost at Wicker Park status in regards to gentrification and being hot. Avondale real estate has really been increasing in value and is getting quite expensive. New trendy and high quality restaurants keep opening in the neighborhood. I think the only area that Avondale is way behind at the moment is in nightlife. Lots of great restaurants, convenient shopping, good transportation, good housing stock, but the nightlife is average at best. Also overall vibrancy is pretty average too. You don't see as many people out and about in Avondale as you see in other neighborhoods, but I could see that changing, especially along Belmont Avenue and Milwaukee as well.
Irving Park will be a spillover from Avondale, but I think will be even slower to get hot than what it has taken Avondale. Portage Park however. That area around six corners, I see so much potential. If they were to build a Target where the Sears was, that is going to bring a lot more vibrancy to the neighborhood. The six corners has great urban bones along Milwaukee and Irving Park, and a lot of vacant storefronts, but unlike other places with those two qualities, Portage Park is pretty darn safe. The only challenge will be is that it's not that close to the train. Six Corners which is on the eastern edge of the neighborhood, is a good walk from the blue line. While it's not super far, it's not as convenient in other hot neighborhoods.
I feel people here are overreacting about how people will shift from city living to suburbs because of the pandemic. People are saying this now because we are in it now, but once it settles down within a year or two and things go back to "normal" people will be itching for that city life. The issue is we can't really enjoy city life right now to it's full potential. You can enjoy suburbs to it's full potential at the moment, because there wasn't a ton to do in them to begin with.
Irving Park and Portage Park? You might as well be in the suburbs by that point. Those will not be hot hoods like a Logan Square because the blue line runs in the middle of 90 instead of the middle of the neighborhood. Avondale and the Belmont stop will be the last gasp of the hot hood march along the blue line.
I agree with you all pointing out how the burbs are boring but you forget who's moving there. The couples with young children or looking to start families have all moved up their exodus to burbs from 2-3 years to now. Also the rich families living in the million dollar single family homes all throughout say a Logan Square would leave the burbs for more space. They also made hoods hot by converting many 2 flats into single family homes.
Many other young people (age 22-30) without kids will flee Chicago for the MID TIER cities like a Madison, WI due to REMOTE work. Still has the walkability, coffee shops, gyms, restaurants, breweries etc. and much cheaper cost of living. A brief search on Redfin and I can buy a HOUSE for under $500k in the middle of downtown while that would easily cost millions in Chicago. If I was graduating college right now and choosing a city to live in to do remote work...there's no way I'd choose a NYC, San Fran, Chicago, etc. I'd rather get established in a mid tier city where eventually I could afford a home near downtown.
Many other young people (age 22-30) without kids will flee Chicago for the MID TIER cities like a Madison, WI due to REMOTE work. Still has the walkability, coffee shops, gyms, restaurants, breweries etc. and much cheaper cost of living. A brief search on Redfin and I can buy a HOUSE for under $500k in the middle of downtown while that would easily cost millions in Chicago. If I was graduating college right now and choosing a city to live in to do remote work...there's no way I'd choose a NYC, San Fran, Chicago, etc. I'd rather get established in a mid tier city where eventually I could afford a home near downtown.
While I think you do have a point about mid tier cities I wouldn’t completely write chicago off.
You put NYC and San Fransisco on the same tier as Chicago, and in term of big city living? They kind of are.
However Chicago is much much cheaper than those two cities. Being from here? I always think our housing is super expensive, but relative to other large cities in America it really isn’t. So Chicago does offer a lot of relative value, assuming you’re from a higher CoL area.
Irving Park and Portage Park? You might as well be in the suburbs by that point. Those will not be hot hoods like a Logan Square because the blue line runs in the middle of 90 instead of the middle of the neighborhood. Avondale and the Belmont stop will be the last gasp of the hot hood march along the blue line.
I agree with you all pointing out how the burbs are boring but you forget who's moving there. The couples with young children or looking to start families have all moved up their exodus to burbs from 2-3 years to now. Also the rich families living in the million dollar single family homes all throughout say a Logan Square would leave the burbs for more space. They also made hoods hot by converting many 2 flats into single family homes.
Many other young people (age 22-30) without kids will flee Chicago for the MID TIER cities like a Madison, WI due to REMOTE work. Still has the walkability, coffee shops, gyms, restaurants, breweries etc. and much cheaper cost of living. A brief search on Redfin and I can buy a HOUSE for under $500k in the middle of downtown while that would easily cost millions in Chicago. If I was graduating college right now and choosing a city to live in to do remote work...there's no way I'd choose a NYC, San Fran, Chicago, etc. I'd rather get established in a mid tier city where eventually I could afford a home near downtown.
A couple of things. First, it's not going to cost millions of dollars in Chicago unless you want to be in Lincoln Park in the top of the line 4,000 square foot house or a giant pro-athlete style highrise penthouse. Secondly, Millennials are not going for houses. They're buying multi-units. So they offset the mortgage with rent and can live just as cheaply, if not cheaper, than Madison. And have access to more social employment opportunities. I left the "and" out on purpose.
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