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Old 07-03-2020, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
8,851 posts, read 5,793,576 times
Reputation: 11467

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
No doubt that'll help, but is either in the bank? I think the Damen stop is pretty much a done deal but the UC has been talking about parking lot development for years. Hopefully it finally happens at some point soon.

Still, it can't be denied that the Near West Side Community Area has really taken off over the last decade. So that'll help spur development in EGP. If EGP does "pop," it'll happen in a fashion similar to that of the old Cabrini Green area of the Near North Side, where developers come in and build a bunch of new townhome and basically overwhelm the current demographics in the community. In this regard, EGP's population in 1950 was 70,091. In 2015, it was 20,656. So that implies that there's a lot of vacant land and abandoned buildings there, which can be torn down and redeveloped into new cinderblock townhomes and the like.

But unless you get crime under control, you can build all the townhomes you want but people won't move into them if they don't feel safe. When Cabrini was redeveloped in the late 1990s/early 2000s, a friend of mine was among the first to buy a new townhome there and the CPD was very, very aggressively policing the area, I distinctly recall. I'm not sure that would fly now. So it'll be interesting for sure.
I completely agree with this, and have been saying this for the longest time. Whether it is right or wrong, it is what it is. People will not move into a neighborhood unless it is safe. Additionally, business development (which could help a lot of bad neighborhoods), will not move in unless it is safe.
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Old 07-03-2020, 03:10 PM
 
Location: In the heights
36,949 posts, read 38,947,889 times
Reputation: 20995
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
No doubt that'll help, but is either in the bank? I think the Damen stop is pretty much a done deal but the UC has been talking about parking lot development for years. Hopefully it finally happens at some point soon.

Still, it can't be denied that the Near West Side Community Area has really taken off over the last decade. So that'll help spur development in EGP. If EGP does "pop," it'll happen in a fashion similar to that of the old Cabrini Green area of the Near North Side, where developers come in and build a bunch of new townhome and basically overwhelm the current demographics in the community. In this regard, EGP's population in 1950 was 70,091. In 2015, it was 20,656. So that implies that there's a lot of vacant land and abandoned buildings there, which can be torn down and redeveloped into new cinderblock townhomes and the like.

But unless you get crime under control, you can build all the townhomes you want but people won't move into them if they don't feel safe. When Cabrini was redeveloped in the late 1990s/early 2000s, a friend of mine was among the first to buy a new townhome there and the CPD was very, very aggressively policing the area, I distinctly recall. I'm not sure that would fly now. So it'll be interesting for sure.
Yea, the parking lot development is the more iffy one. The combination of the two has a decent chance of pushing Near West Side development westwards significantly which then starts reaching EGP.
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Old 07-03-2020, 04:49 PM
 
1,067 posts, read 901,195 times
Reputation: 1870
The parking lot development will not happen now that covid has destroyed retail and service industry. Too many open spots in prime hoods to fill in before even thinking about building in EGP.
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Old 07-03-2020, 07:41 PM
 
504 posts, read 489,847 times
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This thread was a great read. I honestly can't believe how many times EGP has popped up in it. If you look back 5 years on City-Data you'll see people saying it wouldn't gentrify until 2050- now you're all pushing it to 2030. That said, I agree its on a good trajectory for 2035 to be pretty nice just due to the ridiculous boom of the West Loop (and ongoing boom even with COVID). Prices have already shot up here but there are some deals to be had with 2 flats around 200-300 that are liveable but outdated.

I do think that the United Center area is trash but that will develop around the sea of parking lots and commercial has plenty of space around Lake Street and Madison. The new Damen stop will definitely help the area and will be a destination for me with the brewing district right there.
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Old 07-04-2020, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Chicago, Tri-Taylor
5,014 posts, read 9,406,267 times
Reputation: 3987
Quote:
Originally Posted by OKParker View Post
This thread was a great read. I honestly can't believe how many times EGP has popped up in it. If you look back 5 years on City-Data you'll see people saying it wouldn't gentrify until 2050- now you're all pushing it to 2030. That said, I agree its on a good trajectory for 2035 to be pretty nice just due to the ridiculous boom of the West Loop (and ongoing boom even with COVID). Prices have already shot up here but there are some deals to be had with 2 flats around 200-300 that are liveable but outdated.

I do think that the United Center area is trash but that will develop around the sea of parking lots and commercial has plenty of space around Lake Street and Madison. The new Damen stop will definitely help the area and will be a destination for me with the brewing district right there.
If you pay 300k for a 2 flat in EGP it is not going to cover mortgage, taxes and expenses unless you put a lot of capital down. That's 150k a door, which is ridiculous. But that's about what they go for over there. Plus, the tenant base over there right now would require pretty extensive management. The pricing is totally speculative and has a lot of future gentrification built into it. It's now actually cheaper to buy a two-flat in Berwyn or Cicero! And a lot safer.
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Old 07-06-2020, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Chicago
103 posts, read 150,066 times
Reputation: 190
EGP wont gentrify in 2030. I think 2040 - 2050 is more accurate. Sounds like a long time, but nothing has been happening there. The green line at Damen is nice, but if the city was really forward thinking...they would also put a green line stop at Western. Western has a 24 hour bus line, that would be a great connection. When I used to work downtown, I would take the green line alot. I always wished they had a western stop for that reason...connects you to the rest of the city!

Just because the West Loop is popular doesn't necessarily mean it will spill over west. Once you go west of Ashland, even around the United Center, it is so boring and dangerous. I'd go somewhere dangerous if it wasn't so ugly and boring! I think West Loop people would first spill into Pilsen...just follow the Pink Line.

In Chicago, gentrification happens in Latino areas first. Black neighborhoods are a last resort. Theres already an abundance of affordable rent in much nicer areas. Until people are priced out of those neighborhoods, not gonna happen.

I'd put my money on the Archer corridor gentrifying before EGP. I'd rather live in McKinley, Brighton Park, Archer Heights. I'm a little biased since i've lived on the SW side/SW suburbs my whole life.

I'd almost even put my money on Back of The Yards ahead of EGP. There's alot of Mexican people who were priced out of 18th street now going to 47th street. Theres a big hip brewery there and lots of small businesses and good food.
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Old 07-06-2020, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
4,620 posts, read 3,178,104 times
Reputation: 3895
dlong1991, ANY place with Mexican food will be GOOD food
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Old 07-06-2020, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
8,851 posts, read 5,793,576 times
Reputation: 11467
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlong1991 View Post
EGP wont gentrify in 2030. I think 2040 - 2050 is more accurate. Sounds like a long time, but nothing has been happening there. The green line at Damen is nice, but if the city was really forward thinking...they would also put a green line stop at Western. Western has a 24 hour bus line, that would be a great connection. When I used to work downtown, I would take the green line alot. I always wished they had a western stop for that reason...connects you to the rest of the city!

Just because the West Loop is popular doesn't necessarily mean it will spill over west. Once you go west of Ashland, even around the United Center, it is so boring and dangerous. I'd go somewhere dangerous if it wasn't so ugly and boring! I think West Loop people would first spill into Pilsen...just follow the Pink Line.

In Chicago, gentrification happens in Latino areas first. Black neighborhoods are a last resort. Theres already an abundance of affordable rent in much nicer areas. Until people are priced out of those neighborhoods, not gonna happen.

I'd put my money on the Archer corridor gentrifying before EGP. I'd rather live in McKinley, Brighton Park, Archer Heights. I'm a little biased since i've lived on the SW side/SW suburbs my whole life.

I'd almost even put my money on Back of The Yards ahead of EGP. There's alot of Mexican people who were priced out of 18th street now going to 47th street. Theres a big hip brewery there and lots of small businesses and good food.
I had never really thought about this, but this does seem pretty accurate. Unfortunately, this also seems to highlight a correlation between level of gentrification and level of safety, which follows this observation.
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Old 07-06-2020, 01:54 PM
 
2,329 posts, read 6,612,096 times
Reputation: 1811
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago_Illini_26 View Post
Hot take: Cabrini-Green, especially closer to River North.

(Disclaimer: This would be my pre-COVID guess ... I am not sure anymore.)
are you living in the year 1995
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Old 07-06-2020, 03:19 PM
 
8 posts, read 9,223 times
Reputation: 28
Jefferson Park - good school, cheap-ish housing, easy access to highways and transit
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