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If you pay 300k for a 2 flat in EGP it is not going to cover mortgage, taxes and expenses unless you put a lot of capital down. That's 150k a door, which is ridiculous. But that's about what they go for over there. Plus, the tenant base over there right now would require pretty extensive management. The pricing is totally speculative and has a lot of future gentrification built into it. It's now actually cheaper to buy a two-flat in Berwyn or Cicero! And a lot safer.
I've simply noticed that in this thread and several others in the past you always seem to bring up Berwyn/Cicero when we talk about different areas of Chicago. So I assumed you invested there.
As we've seen with air travel, work life, retail, commercial, etc. and knowing a vaccine is 2 years away if at all and the fact that 4 months ago life was normal whereas now people have placed a priority on outdoors, space and distance from people. I think it's pretty safe to say this black swan event has created some semi-permanent behavioral shifts. Every real estate article I've read seems to be supporting this theory as have others have mentioned on this thread thoughts of moving from city to the burbs which previously was unheard of. I do not invest in the burbs but those investors / homebuilders will be seeing a pretty good upswing there for the next few years.
Every real estate article I've read seems to be supporting this theory as have others have mentioned on this thread thoughts of moving from city to the burbs which previously was unheard of. I do not invest in the burbs but those investors / homebuilders will be seeing a pretty good upswing there for the next few years.
Every time I lose motivation to finish painting this edge of suburban area house, I'm going to re-read your post.
I've simply noticed that in this thread and several others in the past you always seem to bring up Berwyn/Cicero when we talk about different areas of Chicago. So I assumed you invested there.
As we've seen with air travel, work life, retail, commercial, etc. and knowing a vaccine is 2 years away if at all and the fact that 4 months ago life was normal whereas now people have placed a priority on outdoors, space and distance from people. I think it's pretty safe to say this black swan event has created some semi-permanent behavioral shifts. Every real estate article I've read seems to be supporting this theory as have others have mentioned on this thread thoughts of moving from city to the burbs which previously was unheard of. I do not invest in the burbs but those investors / homebuilders will be seeing a pretty good upswing there for the next few years.
Oh, well, when comparing them to a neighborhood that is as violent as Kabul, Afghanistan, sure I'm high on them Anyway, that comment was more to reflect my surprise as to how highly priced such a dangerous area is compared to much safer areas than it was to provide an endorsement.
Anyway, I still firmly stand on my opinion that it's too early to tell if there will be an exodus from cities due to COVID. You cited to anecdotal evidence showing a push to the 'burbs. So I'll cite anecdotal evidence (my personal observations) that buyers are still freely spending in the Chicago multi-unit market. It hasn't slowed down a lick.
And honestly, if there is an exodus from the City, I think it's more likely to be caused by taxes and violence than the virus. But neither of us has any crystal ball.
Anyway, I still firmly stand on my opinion that it's too early to tell if there will be an exodus from cities due to COVID. You cited to anecdotal evidence showing a push to the 'burbs. So I'll cite anecdotal evidence (my personal observations) that buyers are still freely spending in the Chicago multi-unit market. It hasn't slowed down a lick.
This is very true. Multiunits are still white hot. I think high rises will suffer greatly given people at least want a front/back yard and a garage/parking to store their cars given more travel outside of city. I think we will see more of a "sprawl" from high rises/density to the surrounding hoods, burbs, etc.
Again an anecdotal example but I loved living in a high rise pre-covid. Now I can't wait to get out to a single family or duplex down with a garage for my car now that I'm escaping the city more often (since I'm likely not ready for the burbs yet). I don't care about covid but the anxiety you feel simply from others taking the elevator with you is annoying. Great example, I went golfing with my buddy yesterday who works at Wells Fargo. There's no way their office is reopening cause they have no idea how to get all their employees up the elevator safely. To do so would take 2 hours of people waiting in line and going in groups of 4. So work from home is here to stay for many of the downtown offices.
This is very true. Multiunits are still white hot. I think high rises will suffer greatly given people at least want a front/back yard and a garage/parking to store their cars given more travel outside of city. I think we will see more of a "sprawl" from high rises/density to the surrounding hoods, burbs, etc.
Again an anecdotal example but I loved living in a high rise pre-covid. Now I can't wait to get out to a single family or duplex down with a garage for my car now that I'm escaping the city more often (since I'm likely not ready for the burbs yet). I don't care about covid but the anxiety you feel simply from others taking the elevator with you is annoying. Great example, I went golfing with my buddy yesterday who works at Wells Fargo. There's no way their office is reopening cause they have no idea how to get all their employees up the elevator safely. To do so would take 2 hours of people waiting in line and going in groups of 4. So work from home is here to stay for many of the downtown offices.
Yeah, so you see how one could think things are pretty inconclusive right now. We've cited to two apparently conflicting examples here. In your example, they're racing out there and snapping everything up like Wal Mart on Black Friday. In mine, they're doing the same thing in the City with multi-units. So, <shrug icon> My point is that at this moment in time, it's just too early to tell what COVID is ultimately going to mean in the real estate market, if much of anything.
I mean, I'm gonna be honest here. I have a lot of concerns about the future of Chicago. It's definitely no Seattle, but it could possibly go in that direction in the next 5-10 years. And where goes Chicago, so goes Naperville, in the sense that Naperville is dependent on Chicago's economy. So I wouldn't invest there with a pure sense of immunity. Same with Cicero, Berwyn, NWI, or any community in our region. If the fit really hits the shan with taxes, crime, rent control, and what not, remote work ability is more likely to push people into red states than to the Chicago suburbs or exburbs.
Young people are the ones that determine the next "hot" area. Wherever they move will determine the next hot area.
Young people are not the ones buying these houses in the burbs.
Then why did all of them go home to stay with mom and dad in the burbs during the covid outbreak? And why are many of them considering not returning? Google any article and you'll see the general trend of people reluctant to return to dense urban areas.
Going home is not the same as moving, and I haven't seen any data that shows young people moving in exodus to the burbs. None. Are there middle aged people moving to the burbs, absolutely, but that has always been the story, live in the cities in your 20's and 30's and move to the burbs when your kids start approaching high school. That has been the formula since the 80's, nothing new.
But why did they even go home in the first place? What was the reason? Space and distance. Covid is still here and space and social distancing is the norm while bars, restaurants and a lotta retail are still mostly closed or a complete hassle to go to. No summer events, concerts, ball games, etc. Add onto that remote work (this is the biggest one) and you start to ask what is the point of coming back? You will see people flee the high cost living for mid tier and burb cities for sure.
So buy a $400-500k 2 bed / 2 bath condo in Chicago. Or buy a house with a yard and garage for your cars since people will be doing more driving in a mid tier city for the same price and similar everyday amenities? Certainly not as exciting as Chicago but Chicago isn't very exciting right now and won't be for a few years.
But why did they even go home in the first place? What was the reason? Space and distance. Covid is still here and space and social distancing is the norm while bars, restaurants and a lotta retail are still mostly closed or a complete hassle to go to. No summer events, concerts, ball games, etc. Add onto that remote work (this is the biggest one) and you start to ask what is the point of coming back? You will see people flee the high cost living for mid tier and burb cities for sure.
So buy a $400-500k 2 bed / 2 bath condo in Chicago. Or buy a house with a yard and garage for your cars since people will be doing more driving in a mid tier city for the same price and similar everyday amenities? Certainly not as exciting as Chicago but Chicago isn't very exciting right now and won't be for a few years.
Actually, going home would seem to be the worst thing you could do if you're worried about COVID! A lot of evidence showing it spreads more readily in households where families live together in close proximity. That's why Little Village, Berwyn, Cicero, and other Hispanic communities have been hit harder than others. Families together in the house. They'd be safer in their Logan Square studio!
Then why did all of them go home to stay with mom and dad in the burbs during the covid outbreak? And why are many of them considering not returning? Google any article and you'll see the general trend of people reluctant to return to dense urban areas.
I can only give my anecdotal experience. I’m 26 and have a one bedroom apartment in a high rise. When all life effectively ground to a halt I went to stay with my parents for about 6-7 weeks just to stave off the boredom. I’ve been back in the city for about 7 weeks now. It seems that anyone I know who was staying with their parents for a bit are also back in the city now.
I can’t really say this whole thing has changed my personal perception of the city vs the suburbs. If anything being back in the suburbs kind of reinforced why I prefer urban living. My parents live in a prototypical McMansion style sprawl suburb. Having nothing within walking distance and needing a car to get my nearest national big box store or chain restaurant didn’t exactly make me long for a new car and a single family home.
Even being back in the city with most things still being closed has been preferable to the time I spent quarantined out in the suburbs. Being able to walk to the lakefront, and being able to walk to and support a diverse array of locally owned businesses again has been kind of nice. Now perhaps I’m an outlier, as I’m not personally afraid of getting the virus.
This is all temporary in my opinion. The 1918 Spanish flu was arguably a much more serious pandemic, and it was followed by the largest period of urbanization in our countries history, the 1920’s. So who knows really. But one thing I do know, you won’t catch my trying to move out to somewhere like Naperville or Orland Park anytime soon. Maybe if Joliet or Aurora gentrify their downtowns I could see towns like that having some appeal. But places built for and around automobiles as the only way to do anything are extremely unappealing to me still. And yes, I have been using the CTA since I got back into the city.
I can only give my anecdotal experience. I’m 26 and have a one bedroom apartment in a high rise. When all life effectively ground to a halt I went to stay with my parents for about 6-7 weeks just to stave off the boredom. I’ve been back in the city for about 7 weeks now. It seems that anyone I know who was staying with their parents for a bit are also back in the city now.
I can’t really say this whole thing has changed my personal perception of the city vs the suburbs. If anything being back in the suburbs kind of reinforced why I prefer urban living. My parents live in a prototypical McMansion style sprawl suburb. Having nothing within walking distance and needing a car to get my nearest national big box store or chain restaurant didn’t exactly make me long for a new car and a single family home.
Even being back in the city with most things still being closed has been preferable to the time I spent quarantined out in the suburbs. Being able to walk to the lakefront, and being able to walk to and support a diverse array of locally owned businesses again has been kind of nice. Now perhaps I’m an outlier, as I’m not personally afraid of getting the virus.
This is all temporary in my opinion. The 1918 Spanish flu was arguably a much more serious pandemic, and it was followed by the largest period of urbanization in our countries history, the 1920’s. So who knows really. But one thing I do know, you won’t catch my trying to move out to somewhere like Naperville or Orland Park anytime soon. Maybe if Joliet or Aurora gentrify their downtowns I could see towns like that having some appeal. But places built for and around automobiles as the only way to do anything are extremely unappealing to me still. And yes, I have been using the CTA since I got back into the city.
Thanks for the insight. I suspect that to the extent that Millennials did move back to the suburbs to be with parents, a large chunk of that was due to job losses or, as you're saying, a feeling of nothing to do. That'll reverse as the economy reopens.
I mean look, I certainly don't want to disrespect dtcbnd03 here. I appreciate anyone who can articulate and argue a theory, and he/she has done that well in this thread. But the back-to-the-city movement has been going on since 1985 or so. The COVID shut down has been with us since March. I'm pretty dubious that it is going to cause a complete reversal of a very established long term trend. But as I said, no one has a crystal ball.
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Anyway, that comment was more to reflect my surprise as to how highly priced such a dangerous area is compared to much safer areas than it was to provide an endorsement. 
