Chicago Housing Market 2022 (Phoenix, Raleigh: sales, real estate market, violent crime)

[bubs]

If this article is correct, perhaps the low inventory is a transitory phenomenon, at least in the city proper.
https://www.chicagocontrarian.com/bl...-estate-market

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by bubs

If this article is correct, perhaps the low inventory is a transitory phenomenon, at least in the city proper.
https://www.chicagocontrarian.com/bl...-estate-market

This phenomenon is not unique to Chicago or to the United States. It is also almost exclusively a phenomenon of the upmarket segment.

[Don Cuccino]

Originally Posted by personone

Raleigh, Austin, Charlotte, Tampa, Denver, Phoenix, and San Diego are metros with the highest growth in the last year, I believe. Surprisingly, Boston I think had pretty high population growth, despite how expensive it is. In general, the warmer and lower COL cities.

Austin and Phoenix don't have nice weather, unless you consider 100 degrees in the summer to be nice weather.

[Justabystander]

Originally Posted by bubs

If this article is correct, perhaps the low inventory is a transitory phenomenon, at least in the city proper.
https://www.chicagocontrarian.com/bl...-estate-market

The Chicago Contrarian? Never heard of it. This is all speculation, what is occurring now with low inventory is real. I will take the legitimate sources for predictions for 2022 I quoted earlier with established real estate firms over this any day. I agree with Hiruko, this situation is true from abandoned farms in Iowa to condos in NYC used by Florida retirees all over the U.S., and has been true for some time with little effect on the market.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

Curious if there will be a "hot" Chicago neighborhood in 2022. It's difficult to predict how things will shake out into 2022. Some general thoughts / observations:

2021
- Buyer demand started white hot. Leveled off a bit in summer. Then surprisingly picked back up again in fall. I believe this was to buyers getting frustrated...waiting until market cooled a bit...then pounced as mortgage rates started to rise for FOMO.

- Rental demand has rebounded quite a bit but I generally found summer demand noticeably reduced from pre-pandemic. I sold a couple of buildings that generally rented to young roommate situations due to reduced demand.

- Chicago is noticeably less safer post pandemic so that may impact housing/rental demand.

- Remote work saw housing surge in secondary and "vacation" cities. Not sure if Chicago will win transplants.

- With mortgage assistance ending I'm noticing more Chicago volume for sale in the last month or two.

- Nationwide single family home shortage. Will that push people back to the city?

2022
- Who knows. I'm still bullish on the west side of Chicago but less so post-pandemic mostly due to remote work.

I think the market for residential rentals outside the troubled south side neighborhoods is white hot, or was a few months back. I think a lot of this is being driven by out of state investors, including Chinese and coastal investors. They still view Chicago as a bargain. Then you have regular people in there trying to buy because of the low interest rates. At least that's how it was in the summer. I went to the sidelines because it was just too crazy and I didn't think good value.

One thing I'm noticing is that small 1 and 2 bedroom condos downtown are dirt cheap and sitting on the market for a very long time. Prices are what I remember them being in 2000. Not adjusted for inflation but actually the same prices. That shows me that there's been a significant decline in the downtown market, at least smaller units. So if you're bullish on downtown's rebound, that might be a place to put some money.

My biggest concern is that because we're so heavily relying on out of state investors who are not "on the ground" to drive up prices, they might pull back their money if they start realizing how bad the crime is getting. There's been a lot of bad publicity on this, and our leadership seems incompetent, or unwilling, to fix it. I have already had at least one realtor tell me that due to the real estate crisis in China, they're seeing a decrease in foreign investment. Maybe that's not the only reason? Ancedotally, market times do seem a lot longer, though that could be a temporary dip.

Also, COVID protocols may quash business and office reopenings for awhile yet. Though I do think employers will ultimately make employees come back to work, at least part time, I certainly cannot guarantee that, and even reduced office hours will negatively impact the vibrancy of downtown.

If those things get coupled with rising interest rates there could be a real problem. This is why I'm on the sidelines!

[personone]

Originally Posted by Don Cuccino

Austin and Phoenix don't have nice weather, unless you consider 100 degrees in the summer to be nice weather.

I never said they had nice weather, I said they were WARMER weather cities. Re-read my post you responded to.

[Chi-town]

The ole glass half full and falling if prices rose far less by % then other darling cities including some up North. What is not used is the skyrocketing cost in many darling cities with mild winters much preferred.

Crashes hit Chicago hard with a needed much longer period to recover. So those going back to 2000 prices need to see how the 2008 crash plummeted values with a much slower ability and much longer recovery time needed to show a robust profit in them 20 yrs vs a booming fast growing sunbelt city.

Using just since post crash. The increases are there. Few % each year. Gentrified areas especially.

Apparently, some investors are still seeing profits to build in Chicago's darling growth neighborhoods. Just not all the city that brings down averages.

Chicago is not a speculators market seen as low risk. Booming sunbelt cities are.

Modest growth between crashes is normal in much of America. Really depressed areas the least down to small cities even worse.

Why is it such a debate if 2022 is seen as a better market unless a real economic slowdown comes? Seems links I open see a recovering core market and especially outward one. To use pre-crash numbers with huge drops skews those areas of just more normal growth as if little occurred. Good neighborhoods finally seeing pre-crash values rising above 2008 with 2 decades of value lost.

My home in Chicago still increased decently to selling. My Eastern original home I kept did not. Small city of mostly retired folk and those who did not gain high skills and some poorer big city folk moved in. Still, its cheapness is a asset to some. Not to get rich for sure as a investment.

You remove seeing Chicago as if moving to Siberia out of a equation. It would increase growth IMO tremendously. Crime hyped not good either. But sunbelt cities also had increased crime in red states. Most growth still in their sprawling suburbs. More gentrified out cities a slower rise in crime should not be a surprise. Still NYC is not immune in its fast moving gentrification. Most dwell on murders and Black on Black kinds. All is bad. Still crime not judged by number of homicides alone has many of our cities high crime. Chicago not alone in overall crime increased and city forums on c-d alone have threads on its rise in their cities and cores.

[Greencheese]

Originally Posted by Don Cuccino

Austin and Phoenix don't have nice weather, unless you consider 100 degrees in the summer to be nice weather.

I think most people would rather live somewhere where when its 100 outside is considered the bad weather season so you chill in the pool vs 0 outside and you're stuck inside. Plus in places like Phoenix often the weather is quite cool in the mornings or at night when the sun goes down so you can venture outside after dark and have fun. Whereas in Illinois its cold, cloudy and restrictively cold from November until March that pretty much cuts off outdoor activities not associated with sports. If we had elevation for skiing then maybe more people would be receptive to it, but as it stands the cold mostly closes the outdoors around here and creates a wonderful 3+ months of salt that slowly eats away at your car.

[personone]

Originally Posted by Chi-town

The ole glass half full and falling if prices rose far less by % then other darling cities including some up North. What is not used is the skyrocketing cost in many darling cities with mild winters much preferred.

Crashes hit Chicago hard with a needed much longer period to recover. So those going back to 2000 prices need to see how the 2008 crash plummeted values with a much slower ability and much longer recovery time needed to show a robust profit in them 20 yrs vs a booming fast growing sunbelt city.

Using just since post crash. The increases are there. Few % each year. Gentrified areas especially.

Apparently, some investors are still seeing profits to build in Chicago's darling growth neighborhoods. Just not all the city that brings down averages.

Chicago is not a speculators market seen as low risk. Booming sunbelt cities are.

Modest growth between crashes is normal in much of America. Really depressed areas the least down to small cities.

Why is it such a debate if 2022 is seen as a better market unless a real economic slowdown comes? Seems links I open see a recovering core market and especially outward one. To use pre-crash numbers with huge drops skews those areas of just more normal growth as if little occurred. Good neighborhoods finally seeing pre-crash values rising.

My home in Chicago still increased decently to selling. My Eastern original home I kept did not. Small city of mostly retired folk and those who did not gain high skills and some poorer big city folk moved in. Still, its cheapness is a asset to some. Not to get rich for sure as a investment.

You remove seeing Chicago as if moving to Siberia out of a equation. It would increase growth IMO tremendously. Crime hyped not good either. But sunbelt cities also had increased crime in red states. More gentrified out cities a slower rise in crime should not be a surprise. Still NYC is not immune in its fast moving gentrification. Most dwell on murders and Black on Black kinds. All is bad. Still crime not judged by number of homicides alone has many of our cities high crime. Chicago not alone in overall crime increased and city forums on c-d alone have threads on its rise in their cities and cores.

Chicago has one of the worst reputations for violent crime for major cities, nationally or internationally. Even if it’s not alone, it’s reputation precedes it. This negative media reputation directly impacts housing from a transplant/migration perspective. If it weren’t for the negative crime reputation, many more people would flock to Chicago over those sunbelt cities, despite the cold weather. Unfortunately from personal experience, even BEFORE the last couple of years, when I would travel and mention I was from Chinese, the first thing mist would say is, “Is it really that bad out there?” Fair or not, this reputation prevents Chicago from being a popular destination for transplants.

[Chi-town]

Originally Posted by personone

Chicago has one of the worst reputations for violent crime for major cities, nationally or internationally. Even if it’s not alone, it’s reputation precedes it. This negative media reputation directly impacts housing from a transplant/migration perspective. If it weren’t for the negative crime reputation, many more people would flock to Chicago over those sunbelt cities, despite the cold weather. Unfortunately from personal experience, even BEFORE the last couple of years, when I would travel and mention I was from Chinese, the first thing mist would say is, “Is it really that bad out there?” Fair or not, this reputation prevents Chicago from being a popular destination for transplants.

For sure more then winters alone hurt Chicago. We know the list. Taxes, political corruption, crime, winter. Rinse repeat

I read how you like Philadelphia. You should concider that city to move to again. I suggest reading their crime forum too. A NYC one also. Houston also.

No one lessens Chicago more then some locals. Same in other forums. We do have a National surge and proving in news in other cities of their rising issues. I was reading recently on Indianapolis huge rise.

I gave my opinion on Chicago stagnant since 2000 by % alone and to point out crime rise in other cities.

A professional as yourself may feel you should move to a booming city if you feel buying in Chicago is not worth the risk. I only find links on growth still forecast. They work for me too.

Any suburb USA tends to have lower crime. I suggest them too. One cannot wave a magic wand to fix it. If not hopeful one can migrate elsewhere. Buying in a hyped over heated market one has to consider too. Especially as many predict peak markets to slow?