Breaking: Lori Lightfoot is officially out as Mayor of Chicago. As Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson advance to a runoff. (Paris: violent crime, neighborhood)

[personone]

^#2 has been tried ad nauseum, especially since 2020, and is the basis behind "defund the police." Ask all the major cities who have tried this "community approach" how that worked for them..

[MPK21]

Originally Posted by jmgg

You know, it's not often that you root for a guy to win that you pretty well know will be horrible at the position. Here's hoping that you're right.

As opposed to Johnson, who makes Lightfoot look ''middle of the road'' compared to his policies?

[Bitey]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

I personally know several white liberals that are frantically telling everyone to vote for Johnson.

Not surprising. If you look at a map of who got the most votes where, Johnson's base of strength was the north side lakeshore neighborhoods.

[Hiruko]

I knew Vallas' deceased son when I was younger. We were roughly the same age and two of my lower, middle, and high school best friends were good friends with him. I did not realize he had died until Paul's campaign this time around. Vallas is a political chameleon who I think earnestly favors a more moderate-to-conservative approach to public policy. I always perceived their family as relatively conservative, to be honest. I had hoped Lightfoot would have made the runoff because the woman is centrist and tolerable compared to Johnson and Garcia. However, I also felt she would be easier to beat.

Regardless, I do believe that Vallas has a decent chance. I have been telling everyone that I think that Johnson has the clear upper hand without even knowing much of anything about him. While the genuine hardline progressive base represents a clear minority of voters, I think that it will be much easier for Johnson to assemble a winning coalition of middle-income white ideological progressives and African-American voters. Vallas did not even finish top three in most of the predominately African-American wards.

In addition, those that actually vote in municipal elections do not necessarily reflect the current demographics of the city and I am skeptical that Vallas will be able to turn out the number of more moderate white, Hispanic, and Asian voters required to win. I hope I am wrong, but I think that moderate and right-leaning Chicago voters already united behind Vallas in this general and only captured 34% of the vote. With Johnson, Lightfoot, and Garcia voters, you are already at 51% of the general vote. I doubt very seriously many of those voters will shift to Vallas by the time the runoff is over.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by personone

But Chicago's Hispanic population is slightly larger than it's Black population, so it may come down to voter turnout.

Chicago's Hispanic population also includes large numbers of illegal aliens, non-citizens, and people too young to vote. There are still far more black voters than Hispanic voters in Chicago. The Chicago electorate is whiter and blacker than the city's actual population.

[Nearwest]

Originally Posted by jmgg

In only 1 term of office, you'll be set for life financially with all that money rolling in under the table from the various labor unions looking for special favors.

This is the well-oiled machine owned and operated by the Democrats that run Chicago. It's been that way since the days of Capone.

Actually, Al Capone was a driving force behind the election of William Hale "Big Bill" Thompson in 1927. Thompson was the Republican mayoral candidate in that year. He campaigned on a platform of NOT enforcing prohibition laws, and hinted that he would allow illegal bars (speakeasies) to remain open.

Thompson allegedly received a contribution of $250,000 from Capone, and went on to defeat Democrat Michael Dever in the mayoral election.

[Cool Arrow]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

I knew Vallas' deceased son when I was younger. We were roughly the same age and two of my lower, middle, and high school best friends were good friends with him. I did not realize he had died until Paul's campaign this time around. Vallas is a political chameleon who I think earnestly favors a more moderate-to-conservative approach to public policy. I always perceived their family as relatively conservative, to be honest. I had hoped Lightfoot would have made the runoff because the woman is centrist and tolerable compared to Johnson and Garcia. However, I also felt she would be easier to beat.

Regardless, I do believe that Vallas has a decent chance. I have been telling everyone that I think that Johnson has the clear upper hand without even knowing much of anything about him. While the genuine hardline progressive base represents a clear minority of voters, I think that it will be much easier for Johnson to assemble a winning coalition of middle-income white ideological progressives and African-American voters. Vallas did not even finish top three in most of the predominately African-American wards.

In addition, those that actually vote in municipal elections do not necessarily reflect the current demographics of the city and I am skeptical that Vallas will be able to turn out the number of more moderate white, Hispanic, and Asian voters required to win. I hope I am wrong, but I think that moderate and right-leaning Chicago voters already united behind Vallas in this general and only captured 34% of the vote. With Johnson, Lightfoot, and Garcia voters, you are already at 51% of the general vote. I doubt very seriously many of those voters will shift to Vallas by the time the runoff is over.

From your lips to gods ears. Pray

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

I personally know several white liberals that are frantically telling everyone to vote for Johnson.

Watched a few Tik Tok videos. I learned a lot. People seem to be in one of two camps.

Either

1) they buy into the utopian view that we will be able to build up the downtrodden communities by investing in those areas, deploying more mental health resources, etc. etc. to reduce the crime from the ground up. That by showing love, behavior will improve.

2) they want to have more police to work the problem spots and deter crime by their presence, and equip them better to do so.

Pretty clear that #1 is Johnson and #2 is Vallas here. I think #1 is harder to do, but if you can pull it off, it's a better way forward. I just am pessimistic it can be done, and tend to think #2 is more feasible, at least in the short term.

I'm 100% in the #2 camp. Many people moved OUT of downtown Chicago because of the crime / violence over the last few years. Ken Griffin literally cited crime as part of the reason for moving Citadel HQ. It was ridiculous seeing downtown Chicago getting looted multiple times. So a good culture that built up a great downtown was ruined by bad culture primarily from the south and west side. How do you invest in a community that is unsafe? Once safety is there the investments flood in to build them out and grow leading to more positive movement.

It's VERY hard if not impossible to do #1. Rather #1 follows after #2 is established.

So my vote is for Vallas. But I do miss Rahm.

[Hiruko]

If #1 is possible, the United States of America would have pursued that successfully many MANY years ago. LOL

[Cool Arrow]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

If #1 is possible, the United States of America would have pursued that successfully many MANY years ago. LOL

A lot of developed countries have tried it. I don't think it works since their crime rate is triple of ours. Just look at Toronto, London, Paris, Vancouver, Tokyo, Sydney, etc..