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Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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I know in these changing times looking ahead 20 years may seem difficult, but I though it would at least provide a stimulating discussion.
What will Cincinnati be like in 20 years? Metro level? Hamilton Co? In specific towns or neighborhoods?
Who knows exactly what will shake down, but here are some possibilities
* I-75/71's Brent Spence Bridge is replaced by a beautiful suspension bridge
* I-75 is completely reconstructed through the city's core (South of Sharon Rd)
* Gas prices remain high, more people move close to where the work. Some people abandon cars to live in transit oriented neighborhoods near downtown
* USA economy remains stagnant
* Street cars return???
As long as we're talking neighborhoods, I'd say Mt Airy is on a downward trend along with Carthage and Price Hill within the city limits. Outside Cincinnati but inside the county I'd be leery of investment in Golf Manor, Cheviot, Sharonville, or Finneytown. On the west side, Monfort Hts and White Oak could "go either way;" to the east, ditto for Reading and Deer Park. (In all cases these are communities that were heavily built up during the mid-20th century so now have a large stock of "dated" housing. They also adjoin areas that are holding steady at best, if not declining.)
Camp Washington and Hartwell are undergoing the interesting urban phenomenon of coinciding changes: a shift in racial/income demographics simultaneous to increased interest from "urban pioneers" (predominantly Caucasian, middle-class, and dedicated to home restorations.) Wait and see about these two neighborhoods.
Avondale (south of Clinton Springs and Dana Ave's), plus much of Bond Hill's central section and part of the eastern portion, have nowhere to go but up. My money's on Avondale to do a very gradual but lasting turnaround over time, ditto for Evanston. Bond Hill? Ehhhhh...less likely. Lower Price Hill will probably stay mired in the pits. Sedamsville may fare better.
SOMETHING has got to happen with the 71/75 river crossing. Geography on the Kentucky side prevents much widening from being possible, and the residents + businesspeople would kick and scream it out of occurring anyways. Any bridge replacement would have to be done in stages to prevent complete gridlock. I think what'd work best would be a double-decked span (one level for each direction) consisting of at least five lanes AND, goodness knows, a breakdown area on either side. Each deck would have to fork on the north end to accommodate traffic going to/from each highway. Billion$ and many years would be involved, but what choice is there?
Nuisance referenda and short-sighted withholding of funds notwithstanding, some form of upgraded mass transit is inevitable. Knowing Cincy this will probably take shape as increased bus service, but maybe improvement in the form of dedicated lanes and more express runs could occur. Next week will mark the debut of a new peak-hour route between Western Hills and the UC medical area, with limited stops, which signals a baby step in the right direction. Light rail lines along the major traffic arteries, and commuter train service in the Xway medians (a la Chicago) and along existing tracks to connect the more far-flung suburbs as well as Dayton to downtown, would be ideal. But I'm not holding my breath on that.
20 years is too far to project ahead, like throwing darts at a board. The economy is going to dictate much of what happens or not, and there is nothing rosey about that picture.
The I-75/I-71 bridge across the river. My Engineering background tells me a total replacement is not only a horrendous construction problem given the terrain, but an expense I just do not see happening. Is the current Brent Spence falling down? If so the maintenance must have been deplorable, is Kentucky responsible since they own the river? To my knowledge capacity is the problem.
Why not a second span, similar to the existing one, to split the traffic between downtown/I-71 and through town I-75? Still a double-decker to split the north/south traffic and more lanes for total width. This should be far easier to design and construct while maintaining current traffic and avoiding total gridlock. The resulting ramp requirement, once completed, should be simpler and safer than what exists now. It would still be a major project with traffic interruption and control problems, but one I believe is doable in phases. The 2nd bridge could be constructed and completed prior to the ramp switches for the traffic flow. If you have 2 Brent Spences side by side the capacity should serve well into the future.
How can I-75 through the Mill Creek valley be reconstructed when there is no clear avenue for what happens at the River? Seems rediculous to me. The biggest bottleneck is at the river. I guess just throw more money at it and then more money after. Our so-called elected officials are not capable of making a decision which will extend for 20 or more years. But then why should they, as we award them pensions, health benefits, etc far beyond their terms. We get wtat we are stupid enough to allow happen.
IF, Cincinnati follows the model of other cities that actually are where Cincinnati "wants' to be the following may likely happen.
All the 20 somethings currently in OTR will be gone because it will too expensive for them to live there. Expect to see prices going way up in all the urban neighborhoods as restoration efforts pay off, you will see more high end infil development in Fairmount and Price Hill, and Walnut Hills. Crime will decline in downtown and Urban neighborhoods. The West End /Dayton street will be home to some of the most expensive homes in the urban core as executives want to be close to work. Would not be surprised to see some urban neighborhoods "gated communities" with private security
Expect a lot of development in the Riverside/Sedamsville area as the river views become more valuable and are in limited supply.
Corryville, Clifton and most of Avondale near the univeristy/hospitals will have been demoed for new development, in spite of preservation efforts to save it..
The Townships will face the brunt of the movement of the poor and Section 8 out of the Urban core. Crime will be overwhelming there and we will be advising people to stay out of the "township ring".
Public schools replaced by private charter schools as the city gets out of the education busness, probaly because of a court order due to failed schools.
Newport, Covington and Bellvue will have a 'combined city county" style government or even be one merged city.
We will still be arguing about city/county combined government in CIncinnati though.
I also predict Cincinnati will have gone bankrupt around 2018-2020 and it will be the "new management" , and new people moving to Cincinnati that actually turns things around. But I predict the population will be no more than 400,000 people, it will just be a better demographic as only financially able people can afford to actually live in a city.
Of course this all assumes we dont have worldwide economic meltdown, blow ourselves up, or some new plague come along.
As long as we're talking neighborhoods, I'd say Mt Airy is on a downward trend along with Carthage and Price Hill within the city limits. Outside Cincinnati but inside the county I'd be leery of investment in Golf Manor, Cheviot, Sharonville, or Finneytown. On the west side, Monfort Hts and White Oak could "go either way;" to the east, ditto for Reading and Deer Park. (In all cases these are communities that were heavily built up during the mid-20th century so now have a large stock of "dated" housing. They also adjoin areas that are holding steady at best, if not declining.)
Camp Washington and Hartwell are undergoing the interesting urban phenomenon of coinciding changes: a shift in racial/income demographics simultaneous to increased interest from "urban pioneers" (predominantly Caucasian, middle-class, and dedicated to home restorations.) Wait and see about these two neighborhoods.
Avondale (south of Clinton Springs and Dana Ave's), plus much of Bond Hill's central section and part of the eastern portion, have nowhere to go but up. My money's on Avondale to do a very gradual but lasting turnaround over time, ditto for Evanston. Bond Hill? Ehhhhh...less likely. Lower Price Hill will probably stay mired in the pits. Sedamsville may fare better.
SOMETHING has got to happen with the 71/75 river crossing. Geography on the Kentucky side prevents much widening from being possible, and the residents + businesspeople would kick and scream it out of occurring anyways. Any bridge replacement would have to be done in stages to prevent complete gridlock. I think what'd work best would be a double-decked span (one level for each direction) consisting of at least five lanes AND, goodness knows, a breakdown area on either side. Each deck would have to fork on the north end to accommodate traffic going to/from each highway. Billion$ and many years would be involved, but what choice is there?
Nuisance referenda and short-sighted withholding of funds notwithstanding, some form of upgraded mass transit is inevitable. Knowing Cincy this will probably take shape as increased bus service, but maybe improvement in the form of dedicated lanes and more express runs could occur. Next week will mark the debut of a new peak-hour route between Western Hills and the UC medical area, with limited stops, which signals a baby step in the right direction. Light rail lines along the major traffic arteries, and commuter train service in the Xway medians (a la Chicago) and along existing tracks to connect the more far-flung suburbs as well as Dayton to downtown, would be ideal. But I'm not holding my breath on that.
I pretty much agree with your post except about Price Hill and Cheviot. In the former alot of the Section 8 housing had gotten shuttered in recent years and urban pioneers are restoring homes and the area is undergoing revitalization due to a strong civic group. As far as the latter is concerned I see Cheviot going the way as it's counterpart on the East Side, Norwood that is now on the upswing. The vintage housing stock and the town's walkability is going to be attractive for those who are not auto oriented especially with the continuing rising gas prices and the more and more expensive cost of owning a car. You are correct about the other surrounding suburbs because not only that the housing stock doesn't age as well ( 50s 60s and even 70s ranches, split levels ,capes cods and 4 to 5 bedroom " pre McMansions" etc.) but also the walkability is not as great as it is in Cheviot. As far as Carthage goes it is more economically depressed looking ( with the area's dead auto oriented business district) than actually dangerous at least on a level with the current South Avondale , Walnut Hills west , Evanston etc . i do agree if the Vine St. cooridor in Carthage sees and revitalization soon it will continue to go downhill. As far as Lower Price Hill is concerned it has the potential to become a artist and a hipster magnent especially with the housing stock.
I'm no expert, but should some sort of light rail or streetcar system eventually get built (be it now or in the next 5-10 years), I'd expect to see neighborhoods like Walnut Hills and Northside really thrive, possibly even Evanston and Norwood. Mount Auburn is another area that could see a major revival. OTR is already happening. While there will continue to be growing pains, there's little doubt that this neighborhood will continue to see major investment and in a decade or two will be almost impossible to live in unless you have money (ala Greenwich Village in NYC, once run-down, now high-rent).
I don't know enough about the west side to say anything about that area, though Price Hill would seemingly be prime for heavy investment with its location and city/river views. The area between Price Hill and downtown, however, is a considerable barrier.
Restorationconsultant is right about the world economy though. If it collapses, all bets are off in Cincinnati and everywhere else.
And there's that whole end of the world thing next year anyway. Without a world, there is no Cincinnati.
I pretty much agree with your post except about Price Hill and Cheviot. In the former alot of the Section 8 housing had gotten shuttered in recent years and urban pioneers are restoring homes and the area is undergoing revitalization due to a strong civic group. As far as the latter is concerned I see Cheviot going the way as it's counterpart on the East Side, Norwood that is now on the upswing. The vintage housing stock and the town's walkability is going to be attractive for those who are not auto oriented especially with the continuing rising gas prices and the more and more expensive cost of owning a car. You are correct about the other surrounding suburbs because not only that the housing stock doesn't age as well ( 50s 60s and even 70s ranches, split levels ,capes cods and 4 to 5 bedroom " pre McMansions" etc.) but also the walkability is not as great as it is in Cheviot. As far as Carthage goes it is more economically depressed looking ( with the area's dead auto oriented business district) than actually dangerous at least on a level with the current South Avondale , Walnut Hills west , Evanston etc . i do agree if the Vine St. cooridor in Carthage sees and revitalization soon it will continue to go downhill. As far as Lower Price Hill is concerned it has the potential to become a artist and a hipster magnent especially with the housing stock.
Correction of the last part of my previous post: " I do agree if the Vine St. corridor in Carthage does NOT see any revitalization soon it will continue to go downhill"
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
11,974 posts, read 25,473,841 times
Reputation: 12187
I see an interesting problem with assuming that the poor will soon abandon the old urban neighborhoods due to gentrification (and higher rent caused by it)... where exactly will the carless poor go? That live in dense transit friendly areas because they have no choice. Maybe the total population will go up as some rich White move back in places like OTR, but I just don't see masses of poor moving to the cul-de-sacs of Finneytown or Colerain.
Second, what if urban farming really takes off... and suddenly that big suburban yard now makes money growing crops (rather than taking money to keep it mowed)?? Those single family homes would also be great for people putting solar panels on their roofs to power electric cars to continue a short commute. Multi family buildings like town houses usually prohibit adding solar panels. You can also get paid to put money back onto the grid.
I think the places which will decline most are Hamilton (low income AND a long commute to most jobs) and the ex urb McMansion areas. As incomes remain stagnant and costs rise most McMansion owners will be forced to rent out rooms to avoid foreclosure. I think the already gentrified urban neighborhoods like Mt Adams, Covington, etc will continue to thrive while high crime urban areas (OTR, etc) will make modest progress but remain the domain of urban pioneers.
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