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I wasn't sure which forum to put this since it is both weather and a city comparison. I figure city vs city gets more traffic, so it would be fine to put this here.
Anyways...
This is a comparison of cities across the US and the likelihood they'll have a white Christmas.
For me, I was surprised to see that Providence is slightly more likely to have a white Christmas than Boston, but then I thought about it about it a bit. Boston may be further north, but it's right on the ocean. Providence is a bit inland, so it's possible that rain/snow events stay snow longer there. I don't know.
To be honest, I was surprised that Pittsburgh and St. Louis were more likely to have a white Christmas than Boston as well. Both of those cities are a bit warmer than Boston, but maybe the ocean plays a role again.
I know Caribou is high at 86%, but I guess I expected it to actually be higher.
One thing that surprises people is how very rare a white Christmas is in NYC. Hollywood always portrays it as having a white Christmas. But in reality snow doesn’t last very long in NYC.
One thing that surprises people is how very rare a white Christmas is in NYC. Hollywood always portrays it as having a white Christmas. But in reality snow doesn’t last very long in NYC.
Hollywood definitely plays it up since there is truly no other place like NYC during the holidays and what better cherry on top than a white Christmas. However it really shouldn't come as that much of a surprise as last winter was the least snowy here in 150 years. Barely enough snow all season to make a snowball. Climate change is real. Hoping for a nice snowfall or two this winter.
Side note: There were some brief flurries here yesterday with the recent cold streak.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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We get snow 3-4 times a year on average, but some years none, other years a week of it and 24". We have been in this place 29 years. Once we got snow Christmas morning for about 1/2 hour, then the sun came out and it melted before the extended family arrived. Another year it did snow while guests were there for dinner but didn't stick and turned to rain after about an hour. We have never experienced a "white Christmas." This year, the 10 day forecast doesn't go that far but as far as it goes it's showing 45-49F and rain. I give it a 10% chance. Of course, at 615' elevation if it does snow, we will lose about 8 of our dinner guests who will not want to try and make it up the hills.
The chance of a white Christmas on Christmas Eve or Christmas itself may be very small but when you include the chance of it happening on the days leading up to it (for example Dec 21), then the odds improve. After all, its the Christmas season.
Also, for a white Christmas does the snow have to stick? For instance, yesterday on Long Island Nov 28, there were scattered snow showers but they did not stick. Pretty to look at but no problems.
Here in Central Maryland, the "brown Christmas" (increasingly green with the grass not turning brown until later in the winter) streak is now up to 13 years, and even the 2009 one was rainy on most of the 25th, causing most dwindling cover to be mushy until brown spots were exposed that evening. Being in a climate with a lot of marginal temperature profiles with winter storms, the ratio of snow to rain events during climatological winter seems to have halved over just 30 years. Even getting an inch of snow at some point during the entire holiday season before the decorations are packed together for the year in early January is probably down to about 30-40%. Back in the 1990s when I first saw a probability map for the holiday, this included the four White Christmases of the 1960s, and the probability was around 20%, but now its close to being a pipe dream, and its not surprising since winter is the fastest warming season. It also doesn't help that the Appalachians act as a bit of a barrier with storms that come from the west, including lake effect-based snows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LINative
The chance of a white Christmas on Christmas Eve or Christmas itself may be very small but when you include the chance of it happening on the days leading up to it (for example Dec 21), then the odds improve. After all, its the Christmas season.
Also, for a white Christmas does the snow have to stick? For instance, yesterday on Long Island Nov 28, there were scattered snow showers but they did not stick. Pretty to look at but no problems.
Really, any time from Thanksgiving until New Years is a more special snowfall to me than if it occurs later in the winter (or be damned, in the early spring) due to all of the decorations being up. But even that here in central Maryland is becoming an uncommon occurrence, with the first snowfall of at least an inch holding off until after the New Year the majority of the time since 2010, even if the climatological first inch occurs a few days before Christmas. And non-sticking flakes are what I call "snain" and don't count. Accuweather's long range doesn't have much hope for a white "any day this holiday season" though as it shows mostly 50s for December with just a rain/snow mix hope on New Year's Eve.
The chance of a white Christmas on Christmas Eve or Christmas itself may be very small but when you include the chance of it happening on the days leading up to it (for example Dec 21), then the odds improve. After all, its the Christmas season.
Also, for a white Christmas does the snow have to stick? For instance, yesterday on Long Island Nov 28, there were scattered snow showers but they did not stick. Pretty to look at but no problems.
It has to cover the ground
Its more about ground cover, less than whether or not it snows.
75% chance roughly. Highest of all major US metros.
This year winter is looking to be at a mild start. Hopefully it will turn around and give us a white Xmas.
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