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I think Detroit will drop further than 11th/12th place.
Hmmm. While I expect a sizable drop, I think it will hang on to #11 this go around. By 2020 however, I expect we'll the #12-#18 cities - San Francisco, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Austin, Columbus, Fort Worth, and Charlotte all leap past it. Present growth rates sustained, the 4 highlighted cities are all easily in striking distance of 900,000 by 2020, and the Motor City definitely be below that by then.
The Michigan numbers will be interesting. Apart from Detroit, I wanna see how the smaller cities have fared. Grand Rapids has sidestepped the negative hype dumped on Michigan - I wonder if that has translated into growth.
Likewise Tennessee, where you see strong growth and fairly robust economies in some cities, and some serious issues in others. Nashville, Clarksville, Hamilton County, Murfreesboro, and Knox County will all be interesting. I wonder if Boston will scoot past Memphis to #19.
By city proper only:
01. New York City
02. Los Angeles
03. Chicago
04. Houston
05. Phoenix
06. Philadelphia
07. San Antonio
08. Dallas
09. San Diego
10. San Jose
11. Detroit
12. San Francisco
13. Jacksonville
14. Indianapolis (it will barely be above Austin, and sometime after the census comes out Austin will pass it)
15. Austin
16. Columbus (it will barely be above Fort Worth, shortly after the census figures Fort Worth will pass it up)
17. Fort Worth
18. Charlotte
19. Memphis
20. Boston
21. Baltimore
22. El Paso (Seattle will pass it up shortly after the census takes place)
23. Seattle
24. Denver
25. Nashville
26. Washington DC (it will already have passed Milwaukee up by that time)
27. Milwaukee (down from 26)
28. Louisville (when the figures come out it will have passed Las Vegas up)
29. Las Vegas (down from 28)
30. Oklahoma City (by the time it comes out, it will show Oklahoma City passing Portland up)
31. Portland (down from 30)
32. Atlanta (Figures will probably show it passed up Tucson)
33. Tucson (down from 32)
34. Albuquerque
35. Kansas City
36. Fresno
37. Sacramento
38. Mesa (will have passed Long Beach up)
39. Long Beach (down from 38)
40. Omaha
41. Miami (will surpass Virginia Beach)
42. Virginia Beach (down from 41)
43. Cleveland
44. Raleigh (will have passed Oakland by by then)
45. Oakland (down from 44)
46. Colorado Springs
47. Minneapolis (will have passed Tulsa up by then)
48. Tulsa (down from 47)
49. Arlington
50. Honolulu
I don't really see any surprises as far as cities go for the 2010 census, just a few minor switches here and there, that's all.
When do you think that will be? Los Angeles is under 3.8 million and NYC is around 8.2 or so (depending on the 2010 official count). If it ever does happen, it'll be a long ways in the future.
Well revise your lists because data just came out saying Detroit lost 230,000 people over the decade which puts the city at just above 700,000. That's a 25% population decrease!
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