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Old 08-22-2012, 07:56 AM
 
11,109 posts, read 12,881,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
It depends on when you catch me. On the other points I dont know that we totally agree. Supply/Demand will be the driver as will time. You think long term maintianed higher growth DC, I do not, think will be peaks and valleys as the history has always been for DC. I dont think families will be the driver for DC based on the development styling, another area we differ. Also the city wanting population is prroprtional, not an either or. In the end to maintain the growth rates new jobs need to be the catalyst, migration from the burbs only can handle so much stock and without new jobs the whole supply demand thing is off (you seem to disagree so be it) We both agree that DC will continue to grow, just not on the mid to long term velocity/acceleration.
I have never put a number on growth in DC proper. I think you focus on metropolitan growth while I focus on DC proper growth. The contrast I drew between DC proper and Philadelphia proper growth was very valid and I feel you wrote it off becuase Philadelphia is your home even though it's very clear that Philadelphia saw almost no job growth and almost no metropolitan growth, yet the little growth the metro area did see was focused in the city proper (mainly center city) and you don't want to admit that the same thing is possible in DC.

Philadelphia proper added 10,000 people in a smaller area than DC proper's growth since our growth covers a larger portion of the city most likely and you somehow don't see DC being able to add 10,000 people? DC could have a 75% reduction in annual job growth metrowide and would still have added more jobs than the whole Philadelphia region added this past year. Even knowing that, you still don't think DC could mimic Philadelphia proper with low to no job growth and still adding 10,000 people to the city.

What exactly do you think Philadelphia has that DC doesn't that allows Philly to add people to the city core with absolutely no incentive (virtually no jobs added in comparision) other than for people to be able to live in the city with an urban lifestyle? And you wonder why I say you have a problem with DC. I just made this as plain as could be. Do you have any idea how that makes you look?
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:01 AM
 
Location: The City
22,402 posts, read 35,197,543 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
I have never put a number on growth in DC proper. I think you focus on metropolitan growth while I focus on DC proper growth. The contrast I drew between DC proper and Philadelphia proper growth was very valid and I feel you wrote it off becuase Philadelphia is your home even though it's very clear that Philadelphia saw almost no job growth and almost no metropolitan growth, yet the little growth the metro area did see was focused in the city proper (mainly center city) and you don't want to admit that the same thing is possible in DC.

Philadelphia proper added 10,000 people in a smaller area than DC proper's growth since our growth covers a larger portion of the city most likely and you somehow don't see DC being able to add 10,000 people? DC could have a 75% reduction in annual job growth metrowide and would still have added more jobs than the whole Philadelphia region added this past year. Even knowing that, you still don't think DC could mimic Philadelphia proper with low to no job growth and still adding 10,000 people to the city.

What exactly do you think Philadelphia has that DC doesn't that allows Philly to add people to the city core with absolutely no incentive (virtually no jobs added in comparision) other than for people to be able to live in the city with an urban lifestyle? And you wonder why I say you have a problem with DC. I just made this as plain as could be. Do you have any idea how that makes you look?

I am disagreeing with this premis. CC is an anomaly in the Philly region, jobs are the big issue here (I have stated on numerous occasions) - I always say that in regards to Philly. I agreed with the ~10K add it makes sense, my contention was overall metro growth and translated DC proper growth long term. I think we are in more agreement than you believe. I only say I think DC will likely slow in new build rate as jobs slow, as will Philly if new jobs are not created faster than the current pace.
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:16 AM
 
11,109 posts, read 12,881,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
I am disagreeing with this premis. CC is an anomaly in the Philly region, jobs are the big issue here (I have stated on numerous occasions) - I always say that in regards to Philly. I agreed with the ~10K add it makes sense, my contention was overall metro growth and translated DC proper growth long term. I think we are in more agreement than you believe. I only say I think DC will likely slow in new build rate as jobs slow, as will Philly if new jobs are not created faster than the current pace.
The Philly region already isn't creating virtually any job growth now and the city still saw 10,000 people added. What exactly was the driving factor for those people to move into the city? And, why do you think the same driving factor's that led people into center city this past year for virtually no reason will not drive people into DC the same way?

Last edited by MDAllstar; 08-22-2012 at 08:36 AM..
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:20 AM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
The Philly region already isn't creating virtually any job growth now and the city still saw 10,000 people added. What exactly was the driving factor for those people to move into the city? And, why do you think the same driving factor's that led people into center city this for virtually no reason this past year will not drive people into DC?
I think there will be some level but costs are higher in DC. So without these jobs (and also in Philly) the rate wont likely be sustained, nor will continued development at the current rate long term (in either place) Eventually supply will slow as demand for properties slows. That said both will likely to continue to grow in residential in the forseeable future. Further out I think both will slow without increases in jobs (or for DC continued generation relative to recent trends)

Jobs are ultimately the longer term factor to maintain this demand in either
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:33 AM
 
11,109 posts, read 12,881,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
I think there will be some level but costs are higher in DC. So without these jobs (and also in Philly) the rate wont likely be sustained, nor will continued development at the current rate long term (in either place) Eventually supply will slow as demand for properties slows. That said both will likely to continue to grow in residential in the forseeable future. Further out I think both will slow without increases in jobs (or for DC continued generation relative to recent trends)

Jobs are ultimately the longer term factor to maintain this demand in either

Cost of living is relative. DC salaries are way ahead of Philly which is why rents and property value's are higher here. People living in DC can afford to live in DC. Center City is just as expensive as DC when you factor in income. You are throwing out notions that don't even apply in cities up and down the NE coast. Why do you think people are willing to pay crazy rents to live in DC? The same reason people are willing to pay crazy rents to live in NYC. I don't think Philadelphia has that type of draw. I don't think people would pay NYC or DC prices to live in Philadelphia. Ultimately, DC will always see higher job growth than the Philadelphia region even after cuts since the Philadelphia region barely see's any job growth ever so your premise that growth will slow in the city below CC growth this past year doesn't quite add up to me when CC somehow bucked the trend growing 10,000 people with no job growth, but I guess CC is just an anomoly in America huh?

When you say CC is an anomaly, are you saying it attracts people in the region and DC doesn't? CC didn't add many jobs, the suburbs in Philly added the jobs. What drove those 10,000 people to move into the city?

Our argument has always been about DC proper. It has never been about the suburbs in DC. I remember the very first disagreement we had was about the yards park and the SW waterfront redevelopment which by the way, breaks ground in January. I remember you saying it wouldn't happen in 2011.
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:43 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcmo View Post
With amtrak, VRE, marc and the red line, Union Station ony gets 50k passengers?

Amtrak says Union is the second busiest in the Northeast behind Penn Station!

Amtrak to propose $7 billion overhaul at Union Station - The Washington Post
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:45 AM
 
5,324 posts, read 9,313,246 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcmo View Post
Yea, I’m not disagreeing with the number, it just seems low. Ever tried to navigate that place during rush hour?

I have never been inside Philly’s station (I know I know, wtf haha). I’ll be in philly probably this weekend or next week, so I may have to check it out.

Kids numbers are way off as usual.
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Old 08-22-2012, 08:46 AM
 
11,720 posts, read 11,817,583 times
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South Station is sort of Duped, because Boston has 3 Amtrak stations more than even NYC, despite being less than 1/3 the size of NYC, and North and South Station are completly disconnected, so the other 2 stations carry about 500K each, south station Carries 1.2 million. But the Big dig dooms any underground rail connection between N and S station.
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Old 08-22-2012, 09:01 AM
 
Location: The City
22,402 posts, read 35,197,543 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DC's Finest View Post
Kids numbers are way off as usual.

Check again...

the 100k includes all forms not just Amtrak. It is still a very busy station but does 13k Amtrak and not 100k. Metro far outpaces Amtrak passengers at Union. As does NYC subway at Penn or Septa at 30th street, it is the same dynamic.
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Old 08-22-2012, 09:05 AM
 
Location: The City
22,402 posts, read 35,197,543 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
South Station is sort of Duped, because Boston has 3 Amtrak stations more than even NYC, despite being less than 1/3 the size of NYC, and North and South Station are completly disconnected, so the other 2 stations carry about 500K each, south station Carries 1.2 million. But the Big dig dooms any underground rail connection between N and S station.

This always seemed odd to me. I generally always get off at the first stop
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