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Question for you, do you think the conversion to multifamily construction and the virtual elimination of single family detached housing construction in the DC region will affect this construction halt you are talking about? Did you know that the DC region even with this perceived building boom is down over 50% in building from 10 years ago? I think the most striking factor is that DC proper construction is up 300% while the region as a whole is down 50%. What does that tell you? Did you know DC gained more people from 2010-2011 than every year from 2000-2010 even though there was no new government spending? Do you know how that is possible? All the growth was from new units in DC proper. DC proper has an extreme housing shortage. People can’t move into the city because there aren’t any vacant units to move into most of the time. That is what is driving the new construction in DC proper. DC actually needs these units to grow. We don’t have many vacant units like Philadelphia or Baltimore to fill. People have to have somewhere to live.
You have to separate the dynamic the suburbs have to the 61 square miles DC proper represents. We are dealing with completely different dynamics. Six buildings under construction in DC proper in the core is going to seem like alot becuase the city is small. Remember, concentrated construction is one of the main reason's DC looks like it's building so many units. If DC proper was 200 miles, it wouldn't be impressive.
Unless you know something the developers don't, every developer in DC I know of has said, the demand to live in DC is not going to slow. They expect young people to continue to move into DC and a new surge of older empty nesters as well. They also predict a baby boom as the demographics continue to change dramatically in DC proper. Capital Hill already has amazing elementary schools and that is spreading across the city. It will be interesting to see DC's dynamic in 2020. I predict a similar model as what happened to Manhattan from 1990-2010.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 08-22-2012 at 10:25 AM..
the 100k includes all forms not just Amtrak. It is still a very busy station but does 13k Amtrak and not 100k. Metro far outpaces Amtrak passengers at Union. As does NYC subway at Penn or Septa at 30th street, it is the same dynamic.
Are you disputing Amtrak? Regardless, they said it's the second busiest in the Northeast. You said 30th street was busier.
Question for you, do you think the conversion to multifamily construction and the virtual elimination of single family detached housing construction in the DC region will affect this construction halt you are talking about? Did you know that the DC region even with this perceived building boom is down over 50% in building from 10 years ago? I think the most striking factor is that DC proper construction is up 300% while the region as a whole is down 50%. What does that tell you? Did you know DC gained more people from 2010-2011 than every year from 2000-2010 even though there was no new government spending? Do you know how that is possible? All the growth was from new units in DC proper. DC proper has an extreme housing shortage. People can’t move into the city because there aren’t any vacant units to move into most of the time. That is what is driving the new construction in DC proper. DC actually needs these units to grow. We don’t have many vacant units like Philadelphia or Baltimore to fill. People have to have somewhere to live.
You have to separate the dynamic the suburbs have to the 61 square miles DC proper represents. We are dealing with completely different dynamics. Six buildings under construction in DC proper in the core is going to seem like alot becuase the city is small. Remember, concentrated construction is one of the main reason's DC looks like it's building so many units. If DC proper was 200 miles, it wouldn't be impressive.
we will see on the virtual elimanation of SFH - I though we have been through this and hat is really only around the TOD corrider (to me a good thing)
As was 2011 for Philly oddly enough. A trend but jobs and people need to fill the supply or the supply stops
Where did I say halt anyway? I said a slowing. MD if DC stops adding jobs at the current rate (one year is not a long term trend) then construction will slow. That is all I am saying. You take this perspective to be some assault to DC, it is not in any way. My point is that is the job adds slow growth everywhere will slow (I say the same thing about CC and the Philly metro as well). Including higher density conversion in the district. Again this inst rocket science.
Are you disputing Amtrak? Regardless, they said it's the second busiest in the Northeast. You said 30th street was busier.
30th is busier with all forms (NJT, Septa, Amtrak, Subway, Subway Trolly) not Amtrak, Union puts more bodies through the station (not necesarily on trains) each day, many tourists.
No I actually reference the actual numbers from Amtrak
we will see on the virtual elimanation of SFH - I though we have been through this and hat is really only around the TOD corrider (to me a good thing)
As was 2011 for Philly oddly enough. A trend but jobs and people need to fill the supply or the supply stops
Where did I say halt anyway? I said a slowing. MD if DC stops adding jobs at the current rate (one year is not a long term trend) then construction will slow. That is all I am saying. You take this perspective to be some assault to DC, it is not in any way. My point is that is the job adds slow growth everywhere will slow (I say the same thing about CC and the Philly metro as well). Including higher density conversion in the district. Again this inst rocket science.
When your immediate response to a vision specifically coming from DC by a developer is "that won't happen" or "I don't really like it" or "Center City will still be better" what exactly do you think someone is going to think? I see you praise projects in Cleveland and Pittsburgh in other threads, I see you praise construction in Chicago and New York. But when something is happening in DC it's:
"That won't happen"
"It looks sterile"
"Center City will still be better"
As for single family homes, it has already pretty much stopped in the DC, Arlington, Alexandria, Montgomery County, and Fairfax mainly becuase of the lack of land. It will continue in Loudon County, but I think the Dulles Toll Road tolls will curb that growth considerably since they will be looking at over $10 one way to live out there. Yay Silver Metro Line!!! Stopping sprawl in more ways than one!!
When your immediate response to a vision specifically coming from DC by a developer is "that won't happen" or "I don't really like it" or "Center City will still be better" what exactly do you think someone is going to think? I see you praise projects in Cleveland and Pittsburgh in other threads, I see you praise construction in Chicago and New York. But when something is happening in DC it's:
"That won't happen"
"It looks sterile"
"Center City will still be better"
As for single family homes, it has already pretty much stopped in the DC, Arlington, Alexandria, Montgomery County, and Fairfax mainly becuase of the lack of land. It will continue in Loudon County, but I think the Dulles Toll Road tolls will curb that growth considerably since they will be looking at over $10 one way to live out there.
Well, DC may suffer at least a bit, due to Government cutbacks, which will happen sooner or later.
When your immediate response to a vision specifically coming from DC by a developer is "that won't happen" or "I don't really like it" or "Center City will still be better" what exactly do you think someone is going to think? I see you praise projects in Cleveland and Pittsburgh in other threads, I see you praise construction in Chicago and New York. But when something is happening in DC it's:
"That won't happen"
"It looks sterile"
"Center City will still be better"
actually no, I praise DC often. Sterile, yes to me in parts. There are aspects of Philly I like better than DC and aspects of DC I like better than Philly. Now CC to me is a preferred environment. Many nabes outside the DC DT would be preferred to their counterparts in Philly.
On it wont happen. I dont buy the longer term projections for DC development and some to me are less organic (we differ on this as a like/dislike) but on the future, not I dont see the DC economy with a slowed or reduced govt spend maintaining demand. Again to you this is somehow percieved as a dislike of DC, to me it is common sense.
30th is busier with all forms (NJT, Septa, Amtrak, Subway, Subway Trolly) not Amtrak, Union puts more bodies through the station (not necesarily on trains) each day, many tourists.
No I actually reference the actual numbers from Amtrak
Well, DC may suffer at least a bit, due to Government cutbacks, which will happen sooner or later.
Slower growth was never up for debate, the distain and negativity to anything happening here in DC from Kidphilly was the issue. The constant unwarranted comparison to center city when nobody was talking about center city was the issue. The guy couldn't ever just say, "that looks nice" or "should be cool". SMH! If he didn't want to say that, why not sometimes not saying anything?
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